scholarly journals Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2301-2318 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Beckers ◽  
B. Dewals ◽  
S. Erpicum ◽  
S. Dujardin ◽  
S. Detrembleur ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
River Meuse ◽  
Walloon Region

Abstract. Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to €334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

scholarly journals Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1297-1309 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. de Bruijn ◽  
F. Klijn ◽  
B. van de Pas ◽  
C. T. J. Slager
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Past

Abstract. For comprehensive flood risk management, accurate information on flood hazards is crucial. While in the past an estimate of potential flood consequences in large areas was often sufficient to make decisions on flood protection, there is currently an increasing demand to have detailed hazard maps available to be able to consider other risk-reducing measures as well. Hazard maps are a prerequisite for spatial planning, but can also support emergency management, the design of flood mitigation measures, and the setting of insurance policies. The increase in flood risks due to population growth and economic development in hazardous areas in the past shows that sensible spatial planning is crucial to prevent risks increasing further. Assigning the least hazardous locations for development or adapting developments to the actual hazard requires comprehensive flood hazard maps. Since flood hazard is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, many different maps could be relevant. Having large numbers of maps to take into account does not, however, make planning easier. To support flood risk management planning we therefore introduce a new approach in which all relevant flood hazard parameters can be combined into two comprehensive maps of flood damage hazard and flood fatality hazard.

scholarly journals A comparative flood damage and risk impact assessment of land use changes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Gabriels ◽  
Patrick Willems ◽  
Jos Van Orshoven
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Forest Patches ◽  
Land Use Types ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model

Abstract. Sustainable flood risk management encompasses the implementation of nature-based solutions to mitigate flood risk. These measures include the establishment of land use types with a high (e.g. forest patches) or low (e.g. sealed surfaces) water retention and infiltration capacity at strategic locations in the catchment. This paper presents an approach for assessing the relative impact of such land use changes on economic flood damages and associated risk. This spatially explicit approach integrates a reference situation, a flood damage model and a rainfall-runoff model, considering runoff re-infiltration and propagation, to determine relative flood risk mitigation or increment related to the implementation of land use change scenarios. The applicability of the framework is illustrated for a 4800 ha undulating catchment in the region of Flanders, Belgium by assessing afforestation of 187.5 ha (3.9 %), located mainly in the valleys, and sealing of 187.5 ha, situated mainly at higher elevations. These scenarios result in a risk reduction of 57 % (100 856 €) for the afforestation scenario and a risk increment of

scholarly journals Flood Risk Assessment under Climate Change: The Petite Nation River Watershed

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Khalid Oubennaceur ◽  
Karem Chokmani ◽  
Yves Gauthier ◽  
Claudie Ratte-Fortin ◽  
Saeid Homayouni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
A Minor

In Canada, climate change is expected to increase the extreme precipitation events by magnitude and frequency, leading to more intense and frequent river flooding. In this study, we attempt to map the flood hazard and damage under projected climate scenarios (2050 and 2080). The study was performed in the two most populated municipalities of the Petite Nation River Watershed, located in southern Quebec (Canada). The methodology follows a modelling approach, in which climate projections are derived from the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Quebec following two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These projections are used to predict future river flows. A frequency analysis was carried out with historical data of the peak flow (period 1969–2018) to derive different return periods (2, 20, and 100 years), which were then fed into the GARI tool (Gestion et Analyse du Risque d’Inondation). This tool is used to simulate flood hazard maps and to quantify future flood risk changes. Projected flood hazard (extent and depth) and damage maps were produced for the two municipalities under current and for future scenarios. The results indicate that the flood frequencies are expected to show a minor decrease in peak flows in the basin at the time horizons, 2050 and 2080. In addition, the depth and inundation areas will not significantly change for two time horizons, but instead show a minor decrease. Similarly, the projected flood damage changes in monetary losses are projected to decrease in the future. The results of this study allow one to identify present and future flood hazards and vulnerabilities, and should help decision-makers and the public to better understand the significance of climate change on flood risk in the Petite Nation River watershed.

scholarly journals Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-159
Author(s):  
K. M. de Bruijn ◽  
F. Klijn ◽  
B. van de Pas ◽  
C. T. J. Slager
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Past

Abstract. For comprehensive flood risk management, accurate information on flood hazards is crucial. While in the past an estimate of potential flood consequences in large areas was often sufficient to make decisions on flood protection, there currently is an increasing demand to have detailed hazard maps available to be able to consider other risk reducing measures as well. Hazard maps are a prerequisite for spatial planning, but can also support emergency management, the design of flood mitigation measures, and the setting of insurance policies. The increase in flood risks due to population growth and economic development in hazardous areas in the past shows that sensible spatial planning is crucial to prevent risks increasing further. Assigning the least hazardous locations for development or adapting developments to the actual hazard requires comprehensive flood hazard maps. Since flood hazard is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, many different maps could be relevant. Having large numbers of maps to take into account does, however, not make planning easier. To support flood risk management planning we therefore introduce a new approach in which all relevant flood hazard parameters can be combined into two comprehensive maps of flood damage hazard respectively flood fatality hazard.

scholarly journals Changes in Coastal Agricultural Land Use in Response to Climate Change: An Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 627
Author(s):  
Duong H. Nong ◽  
An T. Ngo ◽  
Hoa P. T. Nguyen ◽  
Thuy T. Nguyen ◽  
Lan T. Nguyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Uses

We analyzed the agricultural land-use changes in the coastal areas of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 data. We used the object-oriented classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm to classify six types of land uses. The series of land-use maps we produced had an overall accuracy of more than 80%. We then conducted a spatial analysis of the 5-year land-use change using ArcGIS software. In addition, we surveyed 150 farm households using a structured questionnaire regarding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and land uses, as well as farmers’ adaptation and responses. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, cropland decreased, while aquaculture land and forest land increased. We observed that the most remarkable decreases were in the area of rice (485.58 ha), the area of perennial crops (109.7 ha), and the area of non-agricultural land (747.35 ha). The area of land used for aquaculture and forest increased by 566.88 ha and 772.60 ha, respectively. We found that the manifestations of climate change, such as extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, drought, and floods, have had a profound impact on agricultural production and land uses in the district, especially for annual crops and aquaculture. The results provide useful information for state authorities to design land-management strategies and solutions that are economic and effective in adapting to climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on future flood damage on the river Meuse, with a distributed uncertainty analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 77 (3) ◽  
pp. 1533-1549 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Detrembleur ◽  
F. Stilmant ◽  
B. Dewals ◽  
S. Erpicum ◽  
P. Archambeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
River Meuse ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 4129-4142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Daniels ◽  
Geert Lenderink ◽  
Ronald Hutjes ◽  
Albert Holtslag
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Circulation Type ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Change Scenario

Abstract. The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3–5 and 2–5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7–8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2–6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

scholarly journals Raising risk preparedness by flood risk communication

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 1577-1595 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Maidl ◽  
M. Buchecker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Risk Awareness ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Risk Preparedness

Abstract. During the last decade, most European countries have produced hazard maps of natural hazards, but little is known about how to communicate these maps most efficiently to the public. In October 2011, Zurich's local authorities informed owners of buildings located in the urban flood hazard zone about potential flood damage, the probability of flood events and protection measures. The campaign was based on the assumptions that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens who are aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. This study is intended as a contribution to better understand the factors that influence flood risk preparedness, with a special focus on the effects of such a one-way risk communication strategy. We conducted a standardized mail survey of 1500 property owners in the hazard zones in Zurich (response rate main survey: 34 %). The questionnaire included items to measure respondents' risk awareness, risk preparedness, flood experience, information-seeking behaviour, knowledge about flood risk, evaluation of the information material, risk acceptance, attachment to the property and trust in local authorities. Data about the type of property and socio-demographic variables were also collected. Multivariate data analysis revealed that the average level of risk awareness and preparedness was low, but the results confirmed that the campaign had a statistically significant effect on the level of preparedness. The main influencing factors on the intention to prepare for a flood were the extent to which respondents evaluated the information material positively as well as their risk awareness. Respondents who had never taken any previous interest in floods were less likely to read the material. For future campaigns, we therefore recommend repeated communication that is tailored to the information needs of the target population.

scholarly journals Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 2859-2876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet ◽  
Nguyen Viet Dung ◽  
Bruno Merz ◽  
Heiko Apel
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Paddy Rice ◽  
Rice Cultivation ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Risk Maps

Abstract. Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost–benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.

scholarly journals Assessing the Opportunity Cost of Carbon Stock Caused by Land-Use Changes in Taiwan

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1240
Author(s):  
Ming-Yun Chu ◽  
Wan-Yu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Carbon Stock ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Market Price ◽  
The Government

As compared with conventional approaches for reducing carbon emissions, the strategies of reducing emissions from deforestations and forest degradation (REDD) can greatly reduce costs. Hence, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change regards the REDD strategies as a crucial approach to mitigate climate change. To respond to climate change, Taiwan passed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act to control the emissions of greenhouse gases. In 2021, the Taiwan government has announced that it will achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2050. Accordingly, starting with focusing on the carbon sink, the REDD strategies have been considered a recognized and feasible strategy in Taiwan. This study analyzed the net present value and carbon storage for various land-use types to estimate the carbon stock and opportunity cost of land-use changes. When the change of agricultural land to artificial forests generated carbon stock, the opportunity cost of carbon stock was negative. Contrarily, restoring artificial forests (which refer to a kind of forest that is formed through artificial planting, cultivation, and conservation) to agricultural land would generate carbon emissions, but create additional income. Since the opportunity cost of carbon storage needs to be lower than the carbon market price so that landlords have incentives to conduct REDD+, the outcomes of this study can provide a reference for the government to set an appropriate subsidy or price for carbon sinks. It is suggested that the government should offer sufficient incentives to reforest collapsed land, and implement interventions, promote carbon trading policies, or regulate the development of agricultural land so as to maintain artificial broadleaf forests for increased carbon storage.

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