scholarly journals Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes over Ontario, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (18) ◽  
pp. 7327-7346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Wang ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Jinliang Liu ◽  
Zhong Li ◽  
Shan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Data Portal

Abstract In this study, high-resolution climate projections over Ontario, Canada, are developed through an ensemble modeling approach to provide reliable and ready-to-use climate scenarios for assessing plausible effects of future climatic changes at local scales. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional modeling system is adopted to conduct ensemble simulations in a continuous run from 1950 to 2099, driven by the boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed physics ensemble. Simulations of temperature and precipitation for the baseline period are first compared to the observed values to validate the performance of the ensemble in capturing the current climatology over Ontario. Future projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s are then analyzed to help understand plausible changes in its local climate in response to global warming. The analysis indicates that there is likely to be an obvious warming trend with time over the entire province. The increase in average temperature is likely to be varying within [2.6, 2.7]°C in the 2030s, [4.0, 4.7]°C in the 2050s, and [5.9, 7.4]°C in the 2080s. Likewise, the annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [4.5, 7.1]% in the 2030s, [4.6, 10.2]% in the 2050s, and [3.2, 17.5]% in the 2080s. Furthermore, projections of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are developed to help understand the effects of global warming on extreme precipitation events. The results suggest that there is likely to be an overall increase in the intensity of rainfall storms. Finally, a data portal named Ontario Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP) is developed to ensure decision-makers and impact researchers have easy and intuitive access to the refined regional climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Dobler ◽  
G. Bürger ◽  
J. Stötter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Station Data

Abstract. The objectives of the present investigation are (i) to study the effects of climate change on precipitation extremes and (ii) to assess the uncertainty in the climate projections. The investigation is performed on the Lech catchment, located in the Northern Limestone Alps. In order to estimate the uncertainty in the climate projections, two statistical downscaling models as well as a number of global and regional climate models were considered. The downscaling models applied are the Expanded Downscaling (XDS) technique and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). The XDS model, which is driven by analyzed or simulated large-scale synoptic fields, has been calibrated using ECMWF-interim reanalysis data and local station data. LARS-WG is controlled through stochastic parameters representing local precipitation variability, which are calibrated from station data only. Changes in precipitation mean and variability as simulated by climate models were then used to perturb the parameters of LARS-WG in order to generate climate change scenarios. In our study we use climate simulations based on the A1B emission scenario. The results show that both downscaling models perform well in reproducing observed precipitation extremes. In general, the results demonstrate that the projections are highly variable. The choice of both the GCM and the downscaling method are found to be essential sources of uncertainty. For spring and autumn, a slight tendency toward an increase in the intensity of future precipitation extremes is obtained, as a number of simulations show statistically significant increases in the intensity of 90th and 99th percentiles of precipitation on wet days as well as the 5- and 20-yr return values.

scholarly journals Economic impacts of drought risks for water utilities through Severity-Duration-Frequency framework under climate change scenarios

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego A. Guzmám ◽  
Guilherme S. Mohor ◽  
Denise Taffarello ◽  
Eduardo M. Mendiondo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Utilities ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Water Utility ◽  
Drought Resilience

Abstract. Climate variability and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning strategies for urban water security in the long and medium term. However, actions to manage the drought risk impacts entail great complexity, such as the calculation of economic losses derived from the combination of severity, duration and frequency under uncertainties in the climate projections. Thus, new approaches of risk aversion are needed, as an integrated framework for resilience gap assessment, for water utilities to cope with droughts, thereby linking drivers of climate, hydrology and human demands. This paper aims to present the economic impacts of risk aversion for water utilities through a framework linking severity, duration and frequency (SDF) of droughts under climate change scenarios. This new model framework addresses the opportunity cost that represent the preparedness for risk aversion to cope with potential future impacts of droughts, involving a set of options for planning of water resources, under different demands and climate projections. The methodology integrates the hydrological simulation procedures, under radiative climate forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5, from a regional climate model Eta-INPE, with time horizons of 2007–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099, linked to Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) hydrologic model and under stationary and non-stationary water supply demand assumptions. The model framework is applied to the Cantareira Water Supply System for Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, Brazil, with severe vulnerability to droughts. By using hydrological simulations with WEAP, driven by Eta-INPE Regional Climatic Model base line scenarios (1962–2005), were characterized the SDF curves. On the one hand, water tariff price associated to calibrated and modelled scenarios constitute supply/demand proxies of the water warranty time delimited by drought duration. Then, profit loss analysis scenarios are assessed for the regional water utility. On the other hand, for drought resilience gap, results show water utility profit losses per period between 1.3 % and 10.3 % of the regional GDP in 2016. Although future economic impacts vary in a same order, non-stationary demand trends impose larger differences in the drought resilience gap, when the future securitization are linked to regional climate outputs.

scholarly journals ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

2012 ◽  
Vol 370 (1962) ◽  
pp. 1121-1139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshichika Iizumi ◽  
Mikhail A. Semenov ◽  
Motoki Nishimori ◽  
Yasushi Ishigooka ◽  
Tsuneo Kuwagata
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Daily Weather Data

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981–2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile–quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081–2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Change and Surface Waters

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-55
Author(s):  
Gheorghe Duca ◽  
Maria Nedealcov ◽  
Serghei Travin ◽  
Viorica Gladchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Adequate Management

Abstract The actual period marred by the global warming requires expanding our knowledge on the regional particularities of climate changes manifestations as consequences of global climatic changes. It was stated that within the limits of Republic of Moldova’s territory the pace of warming is much more accelerated than the global one. These consequences, in their turn, had led to the increase in degree of evaporation of surface waters, which had conditioned the doubling of still water’s pollution in the region (Lake Beleu). We consider that the obtained results could contribute to the adequate management of water resources in the new climatic conditions.

New climate change scenarios for the Netherlands

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. van den Hurk ◽  
A.K. Tank ◽  
G. Lenderink ◽  
A. van Ulden ◽  
G.J. van Oldenborgh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

A new set of climate change scenarios for 2050 for the Netherlands was produced recently. The scenarios span a wide range of possible future climate conditions, and include climate variables that are of interest to a broad user community. The scenario values are constructed by combining output from an ensemble of recent General Climate Model (GCM) simulations, Regional Climate Model (RCM) output, meteorological observations and a touch of expert judgment. For temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and wind four scenarios are constructed, encompassing ranges of both global mean temperature rise in 2050 and the strength of the response of the dominant atmospheric circulation in the area of interest to global warming. For this particular area, wintertime precipitation is seen to increase between 3.5 and 7% per degree global warming, but mean summertime precipitation shows opposite signs depending on the assumed response of the circulation regime. Annual maximum daily mean wind speed shows small changes compared to the observed (natural) variability of this variable. Sea level rise in the North Sea in 2100 ranges between 35 and 85 cm. Preliminary assessment of the impact of the new scenarios on water management and coastal defence policies indicate that particularly dry summer scenarios and increased intensity of extreme daily precipitation deserves additional attention in the near future.

Quantifying the added value of downscaling in extreme precipitation attribution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Eden ◽  
Bastien Dieppois
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Statistical Correction ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>While there is a discernible global warming fingerprint in the increase observed daily temperature extremes, there is far greater uncertainty of the role played by anthropogenic climate change with regard to extreme precipitation. A logical progression of thought is that an increase in extreme precipitation results from the 7% increase in atmospheric moisture per 1°C global temperature increase predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation.  While this is supported by observations on the global scale, rates of extreme precipitation at smaller spatial and temporal scales are influenced to a far greater extent by atmospheric circulation and vertical stability in addition to local moisture availability. Many of these processes and other features of extreme precipitation events are not sufficiently represented in general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Meanwhile, limited observational networks mean that many short-term convective events are not accurately represented in the observational data.  </p><p>Errors and biases are common to all global and regional climate models, and many users of climate information require some form of statistical correction to improve the usefulness of model output. As so-called bias correction has become commonplace in climate impact research, its development has been hastened by a sustained debate regarding model correction in general leading to techniques that merge statistical correction and downscaling, represent random variability using stochasticity and are explicitly applicable to extremes. To date, attribution of extreme precipitation has not fully utilised the tools available from recent advances in bias correction, stochastic postprocessing and statistical downscaling. In the same way that GCMs are the most important tool in making climate change projections, understanding the degree to which the nature of a particular weather event has changed due to global warming requires long-term simulations of global climate from the pre-industrial era to the present day.  The lack of a correction and/or downscaling step in almost all precipitation event attribution methodologies is therefore surprising. </p><p>Here, we present a multi-scale attribution analysis of a sample of extreme precipitation events across Europe using a blend of observation- and model-based data. Attribution information generated using the raw output of global and regional climate model ensembles will be compared to that generated using the same set of models following a statistical postprocessing and downscaling step. Our conclusions will make recommendations for the value and wider application of downscaling methodologies in attribution science.</p>

Hydrological response of LULC and climate change in Mediterranean basin: application to the  Siliana catchment in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imen EL Ghoul ◽  
Haykel Sellami ◽  
Kaoutar Mounir ◽  
Slaheddine Khlifi ◽  
Marnik Vanclooster
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty ◽  
The Future

<p>Land use/ Land cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this study, combined effects of changes in climate and LULC on hydrological processes are investigated by comparing baseline period (2000-2013) to future conditions (2030-2070) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model in the Siliana catchment in Tunisia.</p><p>The LULC future scenarios are modelled using the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain while climate change scenarios were derived from the regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX-Europe). The (CDF) matching approach with observed precipitation and temperature records is used for bias correction. Subsequently, bias corrected climate projections and LULC future scenarios are fed in the SWAT model to assess changes in catchment hydrology based on a set of hydrological indicators (e.g. monthly discharge and total water availability). Prediction uncertainty related to changes in LULC, climate conditions and SWAT model parameter are also assessed.</p><p>A significant decrease in pasture and an increase in irrigated lands will likely shape the future LULC in comparison to the baseline conditions. However, these changes will be combined by a warmer and drier climate and hydrological conditions in the future in the Siliana catchment. By considering only changes in LULC in the reference period, there was a slight reduction in the surface runoff and total available water in the catchment. </p><p><strong>KEYWORDS:</strong> hydrologic response; land use change; climate change; uncertainty; Mediterranean catchment; SWAT model; CA-Markov</p>

scholarly journals The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination and assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 815-835 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominikus Heinzeller ◽  
Diarra Dieng ◽  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Christiana Olusegun ◽  
Cornelia Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
West African ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
African Region ◽  
Data Set ◽  
West African Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

Abstract. Climate change and constant population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for the greater West African region is provided to support the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate simulations, as well as detailed information on the experimental design, and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data. All data are made available to the public at the CERA long-term archive of the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) with a subset available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512). A brief assessment of the data are presented to provide guidance for future users. Regional climate projections are generated at high (12 km) and intermediate (60 km) resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulations cover the validation period 1980–2010 and the two future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100. A brief comparison to observations and two climate change scenarios from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative is presented to provide guidance on the data set to future users and to assess their climate change signal. Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario, the results suggest an increase in temperature by 1.5 ∘C at the coast of Guinea and by up to 3 ∘C in the northern Sahel by the end of the 21st century, in line with existing climate projections for the region. They also project an increase in precipitation by up to 300 mm per year along the coast of Guinea, by up to 150 mm per year in the Soudano region adjacent in the north and almost no change in precipitation in the Sahel. This stands in contrast to existing regional climate projections, which predict increasingly drier conditions. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the data, the extensive list of output variables, the large computational domain and the long time periods covered make this data set a unique resource for follow-up analyses and impact modelling studies over the greater West African region. The comprehensive documentation and standardisation of the data facilitate and encourage their use within and outside of the WASCAL community.

scholarly journals River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – runoff regime changes and their time of emergence

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 3071-3086
Author(s):  
Regula Muelchi ◽  
Ole Rössler ◽  
Jan Schwanbeck ◽  
Rolf Weingartner ◽  
Olivia Martius
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Assessments of climate change impacts on runoff regimes are essential to climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. Changing runoff regimes and thus changing seasonal patterns of water availability strongly influence various economic sectors such as agriculture, energy production, and fishery and also affect river ecology. In this study, we use new transient hydrological scenarios driven by the most up-to-date local climate projections for Switzerland, the Swiss Climate Change Scenarios. These provide detailed information on changes in runoff regimes and their time of emergence for 93 rivers in Switzerland under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. These transient scenarios also allow changes to be framed as a function of global mean temperature. The new projections for seasonal runoff changes largely confirm the sign of changes in runoff from previous hydrological scenarios with increasing winter runoff and decreasing summer and autumn runoff. Spring runoff is projected to increase in high-elevation catchments and to decrease in lower-lying catchments. Despite the increases in winter and some increases in spring, the annual mean runoff is projected to decrease in most catchments. Compared to lower-lying catchments, runoff changes in high-elevation catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.) are larger in winter, spring, and summer due to the large influence of reduced snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt and glacier melt. The changes in runoff and the agreement between climate models on the sign of change both increase with increasing global mean temperatures and higher-emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation. The time of emergence is the time when the climate signal emerges significantly from natural variability. Under RCP8.5, times of emergence were found early, before the period 2036–2065, in winter and summer for catchments with mean altitudes above 1500 m a.s.l. Significant changes in catchments below 1500 m a.s.l. emerge later in the century. Not all catchments show significant changes in the distribution of seasonal means; thus, no time of emergence could be determined in these catchments. Furthermore, the significant changes of seasonal mean runoff are not persistent over time in some catchments due to nonlinear changes in runoff.

scholarly journals The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination, assessment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominikus Heinzeller ◽  
Diarra Dieng ◽  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Christiana Olusegun ◽  
Cornelia Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
West African ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
African Region ◽  
Data Set ◽  
West African Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

Abstract. Climate change and constant population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for the greater West African region are provided to support the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate simulations as well as detailed information on the experiment design, and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data. All data is made available to the public at the CERA long-term archive of the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) with a subset available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512). Regional climate projections are generated at high (12 km) and intermediate (60 km) resolution using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulations cover the validation period 1980–2010 and the two future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100. A brief comparison to observations and two climate change scenarios from the CORDEX initiative is presented to provide guidance on the data set to future users and to assess their climate change signal. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the results suggest an increase in temperature by 1.5 °C at the Coast of Guinea and by up to 3 °C in the northern Sahel by the end of the 21st century, in line with existing climate projections for the region. They also project an increase in precipitation by up to 300 mm per year along the Coast of Guinea, by up to 150 mm per year in the Soudano region adjacent in the North, and almost no change in precipitation in the Sahel. This stands in contrast to existing regional climate projections, which predict increasingly drier conditions. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the data, the extensive list of output variables, the large computational domain and the long time periods covered make this data set a unique resource for follow-up analyses and impact modelling studies over the greater West African region. The comprehensive documentation and standardisation of the data facilitate and encourage its use within and outside of the WASCAL community.

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