scholarly journals Using the Kriging Response Surface Method for the Estimation of Failure Values of Carbon-Fibre-Epoxy Subsea Composite Flowlines under the Influence of Stochastic Processes

Designs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yihan Xing ◽  
Wenxin Xu ◽  
Valentina Buratti

This paper investigates the use of the Kriging response surface method to estimate failure values in carbon-fibre-epoxy composite flow-lines under the influence of stochastic processes. A case study of a 125 mm flow-line was investigated. The maximum stress, Tsai-Wu and Hashin failure criteria was used to assess the burst design under combined loading with axial forces, torsion and bending moments. An extensive set of measured values was generated using Monte Carlo simulation and used as the base case population to which the results from the response surfaces was compared. The response surfaces were evaluated in detail in their ability to reproduce the statistical moments, probability and cumulative distributions and failure values at low probabilities of failure. In addition, the optimisation of the response surface calculation was investigated in terms of reducing the number of input parameters and size of the response surface. Finally, a decision chart that can be used to build a response surface to calculate failures in a carbon fibre-epoxy-composite (CFEC) flow-line was proposed based on the findings obtained. The results show that the response surface method is suitable and can calculate failure values close to that calculated using a large set of measured values. The results from this paper provide an analytical framework for identifying the principal design parameters, response surface generation, and failure prediction for CFEC flow-lines.

2014 ◽  
Vol 134 (9) ◽  
pp. 1293-1298
Author(s):  
Toshiya Kaihara ◽  
Nobutada Fuji ◽  
Tomomi Nonaka ◽  
Yuma Tomoi

Materials ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 3552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Yi Zhang ◽  
Jing-Shan Wei ◽  
Ze Wang ◽  
Zhe-Shan Yuan ◽  
Cheng-Wei Fei ◽  
...  

To reveal the effect of high-temperature creep on the blade-tip radial running clearance of aeroengine high-pressure turbines, a distributed collaborative generalized regression extremum neural network is proposed by absorbing the heuristic thoughts of distributed collaborative response surface method and the generalized extremum neural network, in order to improve the reliability analysis of blade-tip clearance with creep behavior in terms of modeling precision and simulation efficiency. In this method, the generalized extremum neural network was used to handle the transients by simplifying the response process as one extremum and to address the strong nonlinearity by means of its nonlinear mapping ability. The distributed collaborative response surface method was applied to handle multi-object multi-discipline analysis, by decomposing one “big” model with hyperparameters and high nonlinearity into a series of “small” sub-models with few parameters and low nonlinearity. Based on the developed method, the blade-tip clearance reliability analysis of an aeroengine high-pressure turbine was performed subject to the creep behaviors of structural materials, by considering the randomness of influencing parameters such as gas temperature, rotational speed, material parameters, convective heat transfer coefficient, and so forth. It was found that the reliability degree of the clearance is 0.9909 when the allowable value is 2.2 mm, and the creep deformation of the clearance presents a normal distribution with a mean of 1.9829 mm and a standard deviation of 0.07539 mm. Based on a comparison of the methods, it is demonstrated that the proposed method requires a computing time of 1.201 s and has a computational accuracy of 99.929% over 104 simulations, which are improvements of 70.5% and 1.23%, respectively, relative to the distributed collaborative response surface method. Meanwhile, the high efficiency and high precision of the presented approach become more obvious with the increasing simulations. The efforts of this study provide a promising approach to improve the dynamic reliability analysis of complex structures.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfikri Khair ◽  
Haryudini A. Putri ◽  
Suprapto Suprapto ◽  
Yatim L. Ni’mah

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