scholarly journals A Comprehensive Framework for Uncovering Non-Linearity and Chaos in Financial Markets: Empirical Evidence for Four Major Stock Market Indices

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 1435
Author(s):  
Lucia Inglada-Perez

The presence of chaos in the financial markets has been the subject of a great number of studies, but the results have been contradictory and inconclusive. This research tests for the existence of nonlinear patterns and chaotic nature in four major stock market indices: namely Dow Jones Industrial Average, Ibex 35, Nasdaq-100 and Nikkei 225. To this end, a comprehensive framework has been adopted encompassing a wide range of techniques and the most suitable methods for the analysis of noisy time series. By using daily closing values from January 1992 to July 2013, this study employs twelve techniques and tools of which five are specific to detecting chaos. The findings show no clear evidence of chaos, suggesting that the behavior of financial markets is nonlinear and stochastic.

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Shanglei Chai ◽  
Zhen Zhang ◽  
Mo Du ◽  
Lei Jiang

Financial internationalization leads to similar fluctuations and spillover effects in financial markets around the world, resulting in cross-border financial risks. This study examines comovements across G20 international stock markets while considering the volatility similarity and spillover effects. We provide a new approach using an ICA- (independent component analysis-) based ARMA-APARCH-M model to shed light on whether there are spillover effects among G20 stock markets with similar dynamics. Specifically, we first identify which G20 stock markets have similar volatility features using a fuzzy C-means time series clustering method and then investigate the dominant source of volatility spillovers using the ICA-based ARMA-APARCH-M model. The evidence has shown that the ICA method can more accurately capture market comovements with nonnormal distributions of the financial time series data by transforming the multivariate time series into statistically independent components (ICs). Our findings indicate that the G20 stock markets are clustered into three categories according to volatility similarity. There are spillover effects in stock market comovements of each group and the dominant source can be identified. This study has important implications for investors in international financial markets and for policymakers in G20 countries.


2019 ◽  
pp. 43-62
Author(s):  
Mariana Garay Alvarado ◽  
Michael Demmler

The current article has the research objective to search for empirical evidence of the January effect within the time series of the IPC and the sector indexes of the Mexican stock market using econometric GARCH analysis. The dataset is formed by the log returns of the daily closing prices corresponding to the IPC as well as the sector indexes covering the period from 01/01/2010 to 12/31/2018. The main results of the article are as follows: Based on the January effect the Efficient Market Hypothesis in its weak form sense cannot be rejected for the Mexican stock market as the results do not provide significant evidence of the existence of the respective calendar anomaly within the analyzed time series of the IPC and the different sector indexes.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Vasileiou

PurposeThis study examines the Gamestop (GME) short squeeze in early 2021. Using intraday data for the period 4/1/2021–5/2/2021, the author provides empirical evidence that the GME stock price exhibited abnormal behavior.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the popular Runs test to show that the GME returns were not randomly distributed, which is an indication of a violation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The main objective of the paper is to provide new quantitative evidence that stock returns are abnormal when short squeeze conditions emerge. The author employs the asymmetry Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models (the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and the Threshold GARCH (TGARCH)) and provides evidence that an exceptional time series feature emerged during the examined period: the antileverage effect.FindingsThe results show that the GME returns were not randomly distributed during the examined period and the asymmetry GARCH models indicate that, in contrast to what the time series normally show, volatility increased when the GME prices increased.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper presents a new/alternative approach for the study of EMH and abnormal returns in financial markets. Further studies on market performance during similar short squeeze conditions should be carried out in order to obtain empirical evidence for the antileverage effect abnormality.Practical implicationsThis paper could be useful for scholars who examine the EMH in financial markets because it suggests an additional method for testing abnormalities. It also presents a useful tool that allows practitioners to monitor for indications of abnormality in the stock market during a short squeeze, since the emergence of the antileverage abnormality could function as such an indication. Additionally, the outcome of this analysis could be useful for regulators because coordination among investors is easier than ever in the Internet era and such events may happen again in the future; even under normal (not short squeeze) conditions and lead to market instability.Originality/valueThis research differs from other studies that examine the GME case because it presents a new way to quantitatively present the abnormal performance of the stock markets for reasons that could be linked with the emergence of short squeeze conditions.


2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (07) ◽  
pp. 1035-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. KRAWIECKI

A multi-agent spin model for changes of prices in the stock market based on the Ising-like cellular automaton with interactions between traders randomly varying in time is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The structure of interactions has topology of a small-world network obtained from regular two-dimensional square lattices with various coordination numbers by randomly cutting and rewiring edges. Simulations of the model on regular lattices do not yield time series of logarithmic price returns with statistical properties comparable with the empirical ones. In contrast, in the case of networks with a certain degree of randomness for a wide range of parameters the time series of the logarithmic price returns exhibit intermittent bursting typical of volatility clustering. Also the tails of distributions of returns obey a power scaling law with exponents comparable to those obtained from the empirical data.


Both academic and applied researchers studying financial markets and other economic series have become interested in the topic of chaotic dynamics. The possibility of chaos in financial markets opens important questions for both economic theorists as well as financial market participants. This paper will clarify the empirical evidence for chaos in financial markets and macroeconomic series emphasizing what exactly is known about these time series in terms of forecastability and chaos. We also compare these two concepts from a financial market perspective contrasting the objectives of the practitioner with those of the economic researchers. Finally, we will speculate on the impact of chaos and nonlinear modelling on future economic research.


Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sorin Anagnoste ◽  
Petre Caraiani

We propose here a method to analyze whether financial and macroeconomic shocks influence the entropy of financial networks. We derive a measure of entropy using the correlation matrix of the stock market components of the DOW Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. Using VAR models in different specifications, we show that shocks in production or the DJIA index lead to an increase in the entropy of the financial markets.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quan-Hoang Vuong

The Vietnamese Stock Market was officially born on July 20, 2000, and considered an experiment, in the sense that it would likely accept adjustment and constraints to reflect the contemporaneous national economic settings. This paper is one of the first applied econometric studies investigating an evidence of GARCH effects on return series of 10 individual assets and the VNI, an index devised as the market general price indicator. The results are encouraging: Firstly, we found evidence that the time series exhibit many similar properties as those for other regional markets, such as autoregressive and serial correlation; Secondly, using rather sophisticated empirical models for a newborn market, we succeed in achieving some nontrivial remarks with respect to the use of policy matters. This paper demonstrates the importance of the application of statistical methods, a topic still not received much attention from the economic researchers in Vietnam. (Downloadable paper in Vietnamese, with English abstract.)


Author(s):  
Fahriye Uysal ◽  
Burak Erturan

The tools that are offered to investors in financial markets are fluctuating. As this fluctuation causes losses as well as earnings, it is characterised as a risk for the investor. Especially, fluctuations that may occur in globally important markets and financial instruments have great significance, not just for investor but also for the global economy. Volatility, as a measure of fluctuations taking place in markets, is often used particularly by investors and all economic actors. Therefore, in recent years, future volatility predictions have gained importance. The aim of this research is forecasting future volatility values using the historical data of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 stock market indexes. The progress of historical volatility values in years is presented and generated univariate time series is modelled with artificial neural networks. Future forecasts are done with the obtained model and results are interpreted. Keywords: Artificial neural networks, volatility, time series analysis, stock market indexes.


Author(s):  
Oksana RUDA

The theoretical bases of realization and development of banking activity in the stock market are generalized. The specifics of the operations of commercial banks in the stock market, as well as the directions of their activities, are considered. Banks in the securities market act as issuers, investors, and professional participants. Bank securities transactions in economically developed countries bring over 30% of revenue and are a priority investment destination. In Ukraine, the portfolio of securities generally has a small, compared to lending, share in the assets of the bank. However, the overall dynamics of securities transactions with banks is positive, they are an important component of diversifying the assets of the bank, a way to form own and replenish borrowed capital, a promising direction for the development of banking activities in general. The analysis of operations of banks with securities was carried out. The stock market is an important element of the economy of developed countries and an integral part of the financial market of each country. The stock market serves as a sphere of mobilization of financial capital and becomes of special significance. The feature of the development of stock markets in recent decades is the mechanism of globalization and the growth of various financial instruments and institutions. Due to certain historical and economic circumstances, on the securities market in Ukraine one of the main agents is commercial banks, which are universal enterprises that are able to perform all the variety of financial transactions, including in the stock segment. Securities act as a means to achieve more general objectives of banking. The attempts of banks to expand securities transactions are stimulated, on the one hand, by the high profitability of these operations, on the other hand - a relative reduction in the use of direct bank loans. Therefore, the research of banks activity in the Ukrainian stock market is extremely relevant and needs attention. At the present stage of market transformations in Ukraine, transactions of banks with securities, in comparison with world practice, are carried out at insufficient level. The main subjects of the stock market are its direct participants and institutions that provide operations on it. The first includes investors, brokers, dealers, managers. They are the direct participants of the operations and in most cases are responsible for the decisions made. Banking institutions are leading institutional players in the stock market. The current banking legislation allows domestic commercial banks to carry out a wide range of securities transactions: banks can act as issuers of their own shares, bonds, deposit certificates, bills of exchange and other securities, they can buy securities at their own expense , while pursuing a variety of goals, that is to act as investors. In addition, banks have the right to engage in intermediary transactions with securities, receiving a commission fee for this. The activity of banks in the securities market is that they carry out operations in this market in accordance with the general rules that apply to all participants in the securities market, but they must also adhere to additional rules set by the National Bank of Ukraine. In conducting transactions in financial markets, the bank must build relationships with clients on the principles of integrity, honesty, completeness of disclosure of necessary information, execution of orders of the client exclusively in his interests. By investing in the stock market, banks aim at: - profit from own investments in securities at the expense of interest received by the bank, dividends and growth of exchange rate of securities; - gaining profit from providing services to clients with transactions in securities; - expansion of the sphere of influence of the bank and attraction of new clients due to participation in the capital of enterprises and organizations. The result of the investment operations of the bank is the formation of portfolios of securities of different types. In general, one can speak of a positive trend in the activity of commercial banks in the securities market. Nevertheless, there are certain negative factors that restrain the process of securities transactions by banks, therefore, there is a need to develop ways to overcome them. Since the main problem is the underdevelopment of the stock market itself, the following tasks need to be addressed: increasing capitalization, liquidity and transparency of the stock market; improvement of market infrastructure and ensuring its reliable and efficient functioning; improvement of the mechanisms of state regulation, supervision on the stock market and protection of investors' rights; stimulation of further development of the stock market of Ukraine. In the stock market you can distinguish three conditional trends in the activities of a commercial bank: as an issuer, as an investor and as a professional its participant. An important indicator for the Ukrainian securities market is the achievement of the level of world financial markets, the increase in demand for shares of Ukrainian issuers from foreign funds, as well as the gradual transfer to the stock market of funds from the currency market and the market of bank deposits. The prospect of further research is an analysis of the dynamic characteristics of the banks' activity in the stock market, since the development of securities transactions may become one of the key elements in ensuring the integration of the Ukrainian banking system into the world economic space.


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