Chaos and nonlinear forecastability in economics and finance

1994 ◽  
Vol 348 (1688) ◽  
pp. 397-404 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Chaotic Dynamics ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Nonlinear Modelling ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Market Perspective

Both academic and applied researchers studying financial markets and other economic series have become interested in the topic of chaotic dynamics. The possibility of chaos in financial markets opens important questions for both economic theorists as well as financial market participants. This paper will clarify the empirical evidence for chaos in financial markets and macroeconomic series emphasizing what exactly is known about these time series in terms of forecastability and chaos. We also compare these two concepts from a financial market perspective contrasting the objectives of the practitioner with those of the economic researchers. Finally, we will speculate on the impact of chaos and nonlinear modelling on future economic research.

scholarly journals Does Eco-labeling of Services Matter? Evidence from Higher Education

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel C. Hickman ◽  
Andrew G. Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
University Presidents ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Department Of Education ◽  
Considerable Heterogeneity ◽  
College And University ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Abstract: Eco-labeling of services has become increasingly common, yet little empirical evidence exists concerning its effectiveness. We address this gap in the literature by analyzing a highly visible eco-label, the American College and University Presidents’ Climate Commitment (ACUPCC), in the sector of higher education. We match information about the ACUPCC to the US Department of Education IPEDS database to examine the impact of signing on student applications, admissions, and enrollment. We mainly utilize a difference-in-difference approach to identify the effects of interest but confirm results with an interrupted time series model. We find that signing the ACUPCC increases applications and admitted students by 2.5–3.5 %. However, the evidence regarding enrollment is weaker with only some specifications finding increases of around 1–2 %. Overall, there is considerable heterogeneity across sectors and selectivity of the institutions. These results show that, at the minimum, voluntary and information-based approaches (VIBAs) for services can be effective in generating visibility and influencing less-costly consumer behavior.

The Capital Market Authority Effectiveness in the Regulation of Financial Markets perspectives from the financial sector actors

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (11) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Charles Kombo Okioga
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Financial Market Regulation ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
New Business

Capital Market Authority in Kenya is in a development phase in order to be effective in the regulation of the financial markets. The market participants and the regulators are increasingly adopting international standards in order to make the capital markets in sync with those of developed markets. New products are being introduced and new business lines are being established. The Capital Markets Authority (Regulator) is constantly reviewing existing regulations and recommending changes to regulate the market properly. Business lines and activities are being harmonized by market participants to provide a one stop solution in order to meet the financial and securities services needs of the investors. The convergence of business lines and activities of market intermediaries gives rise to the diversity of a firm’s business operations to meet multiplicity of regulations that its activities are subject to. The methodology used in this study was designed to examine the relationship between capital markets Authority effective regulation and the performance of the financial markets. The study used correlation design, the study population consisted of 30 employees in financial institutions regulated by Capital Markets Authority and 80 investors. The study found out that effective financial market regulation has a significant relationship with the financial market performance indicated by (r=0.571, p<0.01) and (r=0.716, p≤0.01, the study recommended a further research on the factors that hinder effective financial regulation by the Capital Markets Authority.

scholarly journals Financial Development and Tax Revenue: How Catalytic Are Political Development and Corruption?

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 92 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Bosco Nnyanzi ◽  
John Mayanja Bbale ◽  
Richard Sendi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Political Development ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cent Change

Increasing domestic revenue mobilization remains a challenge for many governments, particularly in low-income countries. Using a sample of East African countries, the study sets off to investigate the impact of financial development from a multi-dimensional perspective on tax revenues for the period 1990 to 2014, and how political development and the control of corruption would enhance the observed nexus. The dynamic panel results from the system GMM estimation approach indicate a significant role of financial development overall and the financial institutions and financial markets in particular. A disaggregation of the duo suggests that it is the depth of financial institutions that greatly matters for tax revenue, with a one per cent change expected to yield about 0.26 per cent change in tax collections. It is then followed by their level of accessibility, financial market depth and efficiency. We fail to find significant evidence in support of financial market access and financial institutions efficiency although the possibility for the latter seems indismissible. Further evidence points to the catalytic nature of a good institutional and political environment in pursuit of higher tax-GDP ratio via financial development. Policies to promote the depth and accessibility of financial institutions as well the depth and efficiency of financial markets in East Africa alongside well-focused anti-corruption programs and democratic governance are likely to yield better fiscal outcomes in terms of domestic tax revenues critically needed to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We also confirm the positive role played by the lagged tax revenue, per capita GDP, trade openness, debt-to-GDP ratio and population density in the tax effort.

scholarly journals On the Asymmetries of Sovereign Credit Rating Announcements and Financial Market Development in the European Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunling Li ◽  
Khansa Pervaiz ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Faheem Ur Rehman ◽  
Judit Oláh
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Market Development ◽  
European Region ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Financial Market Development ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sovereign Credit Rating

In modeling the impact of sovereign credit rating (CR) on financial markets, a considerable amount of the literature to date has been devoted to examining the short-term impact of CR on financial markets via an event-study methodology. The argument has been established that financial markets are sensitive to CR announcements, and market reactions to such announcements (both upgrading and degrading) are not the same. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag setting, the present study attempted to empirically test the linear and non-linear impacts of CR on financial market development (FMD) in the European region. Nonlinear specification is capable to capture asymmetries (upgrades and downgrades) in the estimation process, which have not been considered to date in financial market literature. Overall findings identified long-term asymmetries, while there was little evidence supporting the existence of short-term asymmetries. Thus, the present study has extended the financial market literature on the subject of the asymmetrical impact of a sovereign CR on European FMD and provides useful input for policy formation taking into account these nonlinearities. Policies solely based upon linear models may be misleading and detrimental.

scholarly journals Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets: The Case of Turkey

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neşe Algan ◽  
Mehmet Balcılar ◽  
Harun Bal ◽  
Müge Manga
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of terrorism on the Turkish financial market using daily data from Jan 4, 1988 to May 24, 2016. In order to measure the impacts of terrorist attacks in Turkey we test for causality from terrorism index to returns and volatilities of 3 aggregate and 16 sector level stock indices using a recently developed nonparametric causality-in-test test of Balcilar et al. (2016). The results obtained indicate that there is no causality from terrorist activities to stock market returns (1st moment). However, we find significant causality at various quantiles from terrorist activates to volatility (2nd moment) of tourism, food and basic materials sectors.

Robert Engle and Clive Granger: New Spheres of Economic Research (Nobel Prize in Economics 2003)

2004 ◽  
pp. 37-48
Author(s):  
G. Kantorovich ◽  
M. Touruntseva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Nobel Prize ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Market Analysis ◽  
Time Series Model ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Financial Market Analysis

This paper is dedicated to the achievements of Robert Engle and Clive Granger which allowed to overcome a serious crisis in macroeconomics and financial market analysis. The main concepts of cointegration theory and different estimation methods of cointegration equations are considered in the first part of the paper. The areas of application of cointegration theory and possible extensions are briefly described as well. The financial time series model with conditional heteroskedastisity is analyzed in the second part of the paper. The main prerequisites of the method suggested by R. Engle are formulated and its extensions and areas of application are defined.

The Variable Nature of Ownership of Emission Units in the Intersection of Climate Law, Property Law, and the Regulation of Financial Markets

Climate Law ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-75
Author(s):  
Emilie Yliheljo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Carbon Markets ◽  
Financial Market Regulation ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Proactive Management ◽  
Variable Nature ◽  
Legal Position ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Abstract The article analyses the impact of the origins of emission units in transnational climate policy on market participants in the EU ets and the extension of financial-market regulation to the European carbon market. To assess the consequences of the public-private nature of emission units, a broad view of ownership is taken. Ownership is understood as the legal position of the holder of emission units, being an aggregate of elements of private law but also climate law and financial-market regulation. As a consequence, a picture emerges of a legal position variable in the personal, temporal, and spatial dimensions, following policy-design choices and the evolution of regulation of carbon markets. The ownership of emission units reflects the ongoing balancing of the different public-policy goals of the EU ets and differs from economic theories laying the foundations of emission trading. Due to the necessity for a proactive management of the scheme, regulatory intervention and risk have become inherent features of the ownership of the units, and the impact of changes will vary across different market participants.

Does the short squeeze lead to market abnormality and antileverage effect? Evidence from the Gamestop case

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Vasileiou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Abnormal Behavior ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
The Asymmetry

PurposeThis study examines the Gamestop (GME) short squeeze in early 2021. Using intraday data for the period 4/1/2021–5/2/2021, the author provides empirical evidence that the GME stock price exhibited abnormal behavior.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the popular Runs test to show that the GME returns were not randomly distributed, which is an indication of a violation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The main objective of the paper is to provide new quantitative evidence that stock returns are abnormal when short squeeze conditions emerge. The author employs the asymmetry Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models (the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and the Threshold GARCH (TGARCH)) and provides evidence that an exceptional time series feature emerged during the examined period: the antileverage effect.FindingsThe results show that the GME returns were not randomly distributed during the examined period and the asymmetry GARCH models indicate that, in contrast to what the time series normally show, volatility increased when the GME prices increased.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper presents a new/alternative approach for the study of EMH and abnormal returns in financial markets. Further studies on market performance during similar short squeeze conditions should be carried out in order to obtain empirical evidence for the antileverage effect abnormality.Practical implicationsThis paper could be useful for scholars who examine the EMH in financial markets because it suggests an additional method for testing abnormalities. It also presents a useful tool that allows practitioners to monitor for indications of abnormality in the stock market during a short squeeze, since the emergence of the antileverage abnormality could function as such an indication. Additionally, the outcome of this analysis could be useful for regulators because coordination among investors is easier than ever in the Internet era and such events may happen again in the future; even under normal (not short squeeze) conditions and lead to market instability.Originality/valueThis research differs from other studies that examine the GME case because it presents a new way to quantitatively present the abnormal performance of the stock markets for reasons that could be linked with the emergence of short squeeze conditions.

scholarly journals Can Central Banking Policies Make a Difference in Financial Market Performance in Emerging Economies? The Case of India

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Gagan Deep Sharma ◽  
Mandeep Mahendru ◽  
Mrinalini Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The Impact

This paper explores the importance of central banking policies in financial market performance, using the case of India. For this purpose, the paper comparatively analyzes the performance of financial markets during the regimes of last three governors of the Reserve Bank of India—Y V Reddy, D Subbarao, and Raghuram Rajan. The paper discusses the central banking policies in these periods with respect to monetary stability, inflation, and growth challenges. The paper presents an analysis of returns and volatility in stock markets and currency markets in their tenures in comparison with those from other selected emerging markets (Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa) and developed markets (USA and UK). The paper also brings out the leverage effect by applying the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model in addition to comparatively analyzing the performance of financial markets. Further, the paper assesses the impact of central banking policies on financial markets by using the fixed effect model on the reference countries for the period under reference.

scholarly journals Economic-mathematical model for predicting financial market dynamics

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 61-69
Author(s):  
Artur R. Musin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Pricing Process ◽  
Professional Market ◽  
Correct Forecast

Study purpose.Existing approaches to forecasting dynamics of financial markets, as a rule, reduce to econometric calculations or technical analysis techniques, which in turn is a consequence of preferences among specialists, engaged in theoretical research and professional market participants, respectively. The main study purpose is developing a predictive economic-mathematical model that allows combining both approaches. In other words, this model should be estimated using traditional methods of econometrics and, at the same time, take into account the impact on the pricing process of the effect of clustering participants on behavioral patterns, as the basis of technical analysis. In addition, it is necessary that the created economic-mathematical model should take into account the phenomenon of existing historical trading levels and control the influence they exert on price dynamics, when it falls into local areas of these levels. Such analysis of price behavior patterns in certain areas of historical repeating levels is a popular approach among professional market participants. Besides, an important criterion of developing model’s potential applicability by a wide range of the interested specialists is its general functional form’s simplicity and, in particular, its components.Materials and methods. In the study, the market of the pound sterling exchange rate against the US dollar (GBP/USD) for the whole period of 2017 was chosen as the considered financial series, in order to forecast it. The presented economic-mathematical model was estimated by classical Kalman filter with an embedded neural network. The choice of these assessment tools can be explained by their wide capabilities in dealing with non-stationary, noisy financial market time series. In addition, applying Kalman filter is a popular technique for estimation local-level models, which principle was implemented in the newly model, proposed in article.Results. Using chosen approach of simultaneous applying Kalman filter and artificial neural network, there were obtained statistically significant estimations of all model’s coefficients. The subsequent model application on GBP/USD series from the test dataset allowed demonstrating its high predictive ability comparing with added random walk model, in particular judging by percentage of correct forecast directions. All received results have confirmed that constructed model allows effectively taking into account structural features of considered market and building good forecasts of future price dynamics.Conclusion. The study was focused on developing and improving apparatus of forecasting financial market prices dynamics. In turn, economic-mathematical model presented in that paper can be used both by specialists, carrying out theoretical studies of pricing process in financial markets, and by professional market participants, forecasting the direction of future price movements. High percentage of correct forecast directions makes it possible to use proposed model independently or as a confirmatory tool.

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