Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

Long-Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth

The growth of GDP is considered as a natural-growth process amenable to description by the logistic-growth equation. The S-shaped logistic pattern provides good descriptions and forecasts for both nominal and real GDP per capita in the US over the last 80 years. This enables the calculation of a long-term forecast for inflation, which is to enter a declining trend not so far in the future. The two logistics are well advanced, more so for nominal GDP. The assumption for logistic growth works even better for Japan whose nominal GDP per capita has already completed tracing out an entire logistic trajectory. The economic woes of industrialized countries could be attributed to the saturation of growth there, as if a niche in nature had been filled to capacity. In contrast, GDP growth in China and India is in the very early stages of logistic growth still indistinguishable from exponential patterns. The ceiling of these logistics can be anywhere between 7 and 15 times today’s levels.

Impact of Environment, Life Expectancy and Real GDP per Capita on Health Expenditures: Evidence from the EU Member States

This research explores the impact of environment, life expectancy, and real GDP per capita on health expenditures in a sample of 27 EU member states over the 2000–2018 period through causality and cointegration analyses. The causality analysis revealed a significant unilateral causality from variables of greenhouse gas emissions, life expectancy, and real GDP per capita to health expenditures. In other words, greenhouse gas emissions, life expectancy, and real GDP per capita had a significant impact on health expenditures in the short run. The cointegration analysis indicated that life expectancy and real GDP per capita had a significant positive impact on health expenditures at the overall panel. On the other side, the country level cointegration coefficients revealed that life expectancy had a considerable positive impact on health expenditures, real GDP per capita had a moderate positive impact on the health expenditures in most of the countries in the panel, but the environment proxied by greenhouse gas emissions had a low positive or negative impact on the health expenditures in a limited number of countries.

Competitiveness and Determining Factors of Indonesian Tea Export Volume in the World Market

Indonesia is one of the world's tea exporters, but the decline in the volume and value of its exports to date continues to occur. This study aims to 1) analyze the production trend and export volume of Indonesian tea. 2) analyze Indonesian tea competitiveness in the International market compared to other exporter countries (China, India, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam). 3) analyze the determining factors of Indonesia's tea export volume to 7 major destination countries (Malaysia, Russia, Pakistan, USA, Germany, Poland, and Australia). The analysis methods used are simple linear regression, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Trade Specialization Ratio (TSR), and data panel regression. The results showed that the production and volume of Indonesian tea export will decrease every year. Indonesian tea has a very strong comparative competitiveness, but still below India, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. Indonesia tends to be an exporter of tea to the international market at the stage of export expansion. Factors determining the volume of Indonesian export are Indonesian tea production, the population of importer countries, real GDP per capita of importer countries, level of trade openness of importer countries, and importer countries' inflation rate.

Baldwin versus Cecchini revisited: the growth impact of the European Single Market

The European Single Market created a common market for millions of Europeans. However, 30 years after its introduction, it appears that the benefits of the common European project are occasionally being questioned at least by some parts of the population. Others, by contrast, strive for deeper integration. Against this background, we empirically gauge the growth effect that arose from the Single Market. Using the synthetic control method, we establish the growth premium for the Single Market overall and for its founding members. Broadly in line with the predictions made by Richard Baldwin at the onset of the Single Market project, we find significantly higher real GDP per capita for the overall Single Market area of around 12–22 %. In comparison, smaller EU Member States seem to have benefited somewhat more compared to larger countries. The estimated growth effects underline the case for further deepening and broadening the Single Market where possible.

The Role of Exports in African Economic Development: A Comparative Study of Mauritius and Tunisia

<p>Mauritius and Tunisia stand out as two remarkable exceptions to the African economic growth experience. Since their respective independences in 1968 and 1956, both have achieved average real GDP per capita growth well in excess of three percent per year. Export policies featured highly in the developmental strategies of both countries as they transitioned through a dependency on agriculture into manufacturing and then services. What makes this comparison so interesting is that despite such similar success, Tunisia and Mauritius are fundamentally very different. This study comprises the first ever in-depth comparison of these two countries, presenting a qualitative analysis and then augmenting it with a comprehensive set of econometric tests. The focus is on the relationship between exports and economic growth, but the discussion explores the wider context in both countries. Using the Granger-causality approach, we find strong evidence for export-led growth in Mauritius, but no significant evidence of any causal relationship in Tunisia. On the basis of a broader analysis we argue that exports were still important in both countries, but appear to have been more central to the growth process in Mauritius. This broader analysis also highlights that other factors – such as a strong institutional environment – were important in facilitating or directly contributing to such consistent growth.</p>

The Role of Exports in African Economic Development: A Comparative Study of Mauritius and Tunisia

<p>Mauritius and Tunisia stand out as two remarkable exceptions to the African economic growth experience. Since their respective independences in 1968 and 1956, both have achieved average real GDP per capita growth well in excess of three percent per year. Export policies featured highly in the developmental strategies of both countries as they transitioned through a dependency on agriculture into manufacturing and then services. What makes this comparison so interesting is that despite such similar success, Tunisia and Mauritius are fundamentally very different. This study comprises the first ever in-depth comparison of these two countries, presenting a qualitative analysis and then augmenting it with a comprehensive set of econometric tests. The focus is on the relationship between exports and economic growth, but the discussion explores the wider context in both countries. Using the Granger-causality approach, we find strong evidence for export-led growth in Mauritius, but no significant evidence of any causal relationship in Tunisia. On the basis of a broader analysis we argue that exports were still important in both countries, but appear to have been more central to the growth process in Mauritius. This broader analysis also highlights that other factors – such as a strong institutional environment – were important in facilitating or directly contributing to such consistent growth.</p>

Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Presence of Growth Volatility: Multi-Country Evidence

Falling energy intensity (increasing efficiency) is believed to be a result of more efficient production methods that have evolved over time, indicating overall sustainability in the production process. The objective of this study is to investigate the diminishing trend of energy intensity and the related volatilities in growth of energy consumption and income growth through the energy–growth nexus. The country specific long-run and short-run causal relationships among real energy consumption per capita, real GDP per capita, and the volatilities of growth in income and the growth in energy consumption are established using the method proposed by Yamamoto–Kurozumi within a cointegration framework in 48 countries. The overall findings suggest that energy intensity is falling, in conjunction with the existing evidence on the energy–growth nexus in most of the countries studied; hence, implicitly this confirms sustainability. The results based on volatility analysis show a significant decrease in energy use in response to increasing income growth volatility. The negative effects of income growth volatility on energy consumption are usually countered through compensation measures, with subsidies provided to households and producers in order to smooth the energy consumption behaviours in those economies.

Investigating the Causality Between Remittances, Infant Mortality, and Economic Growth in India: A Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model Analysis

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of remittances on human development as measured by infant mortality rates and real GDP per capita in India using time series data for the 1975-2018 period. By employing the Zivot-Andrews single-break unit root test and cointegration analysis using the Johansen procedure, a stable long-run relationship is found among the variables. Consequently, by estimating a VECM with dummy variables, results indicate that, in the long run, both remittances and real GDP per capita have a negative and significant impact on infant mortality rates in India. With infant mortality rate as a dependent variable, the adjustment coefficient for the cointegrating vector is negative and significant as the theory predicts. A Granger Block causality test is also conducted, and results indicate that remittances do not Granger cause real GDP and infant mortality rate; however, it is found that infant mortality rate and real GDP per capita Granger cause remittances. Policy implications are discussed.

TOURISM-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to analyze tourism-led growth hypothesis in Kenya’s economy. Materials and Methods: The descriptive research design was adopted. This study targeted international tourism receipts, employment, economies of scale and capital investments in tourism related economic activities that included hotels and food service activities, wholesale and retail trade, transport and information communication and travel agencies, entertainment and recreation in the period 1980 to 2019.The study used purposive sampling. a sample size of data for 40 years from 1980 to 2019 was used. The data were collected from KNBS, the World Bank and WTTC using a secondary data collection sheet. Using real GDP per capita as the dependent variable and international tourism receipts, tourism related employment, economies of scale and capital investments as the independent variables, the study used regression and vector error correction (VEC) to carry out the analysis. The analysis was systematic and begins with diagnostic tests that included Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for homoscedasticity, Jarque-Bera normality test, VIF multi-collinearity test, Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test and Johansen Co-integration test and finally the regression and the vector error correction analysis. Data analysis was done using E-views software. Results: The study results showed that international tourism receipts, tourism related employment and economies of scale positively influence real GDP per capita in both short run and long run equilibrium. Capital investments negatively affected real GDP per capita in the long run but had a positive effect in the short run equilibrium. Granger causality test presented a bi-directional causality between international tourism receipts, tourism related employment, economies of scale and capital investments and real GDP per capita. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The country should enact policies that promote tourism related activities because the benefits derived from tourist expenditures positively influence the growth of the economy. Institutions such as Brand Kenya, Tourism Promotion Council, the Ministry of Tourism and recruitment of international tourism ambassadors should be strengthened to ensure more foreign tourists are attracted into the country.