VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH AFTER FIRST DIFFERENCING: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INFLATION AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN TANZANIA

The objective of the study was to examine the trend of inflation and its key determinants in Tanzania. We used secondary time series data observed annually from January 1970 to 2020 which are inflation rate, GDP, Exchange rate and money supply. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model was employed for modeling. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) found that inflation rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and Money supply (M3) were initially non-stationary but they became stationary after first differencing so as to proceed with the analysis. Preliminary tests before obtaining vector auto regressive model were carried out before determining the relationship between the variables. Diagnostic test such as serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, stability and normality were also important to evaluate the model assumptions and investigate whether or not there are observations with a large, undue influence on the analysis. We used Granger causality test (GCT) to determine causal- effect relationship between the variables. The results show that, there is a long run relationship between the variables, also the results showed that exchange rate and money supply (M3) both have a positive impact on inflation rate while gross domestic product (GDP) revealed a negative impact on inflation rate. Finally, the forecast of inflation rate for 15 years ahead was performed. The study recommends that the government should pursue both contractionary monetary policy and fiscal policy in order to control inflation in the country.

DO ENTREPRENEURIAL DYNAMICS AND EMPLOYMENT INFLUENCE ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FOR ROMANIA

The literature on the relationship between entrepreneurship, firm formation and economic development often describes entrepreneurship as a complex phenomenon, led by individuals, embedded in a broad economic and societal context, which, in regional terms, influences the quality and results of the entrepreneurial process. From a micro-economic perspective, the region is shaped by the myriad of laborious and innovative actions of entrepreneurs, looking for opportunities, taking risks, starting businesses and generating economic and social associations. Competition, trust, networks, mentalities, the education system, public policies, all are ingredients that can provide opportunities for many actors at the local level (institutions, businesses, population, etc.) and thus, for the region as a whole to thrive. Often these elements can offer the opportunities of economic convergence between regions and countries. On the other hand, we found that the potential of entrepreneurship to generate benefits and an impetus for the economic growth of regions were not fully researched and understood, despite suggestive empirical evidence and a rich literature in regional studies. In this article we analysed, at the level of the 8 development regions of Romania, the relation between the firm’s formation and the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product, respectively the relation between employment/active population and the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product. We did not find clear evidence that the pace of setting up new businesses has a certain effect on economic growth or employment, but we found that in some regions, better equipped in terms of infrastructure, qualification and diversity of human capital, entrepreneurial dynamics could moderately influence the positive evolution of these macroeconomic indicators.

ACCESS TO FINANCE AND PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES SECTOR MSMEs IN NIGERIA

This study examines the subjective and objective effect of access to finance on the performance and growth of MSMEs in the services sector in Nigeria. The study used a cross-sectional dataset from the 2014 World Bank Enterprise Surveys database. The study employed the Ordinary Least Squares regression approach to investigate the effect of access to finance on the ability to create employment by MSMEs in the services sector in Nigeria. This study found that MSMEs face credit constraints as the majority (77.56%) of the sampled firms indicated access to finance as the main obstacle, although in different degrees (subjective effect). Also, the study found a negative and significant relationship between access to finance constraint and employment growths (objective effect). In light of these findings, the study recommends that the government should encourage financial institutions to create cheaper and more accessible credit for MSMEs, through favourable tax regimes or incentives in order to reduce the unemployment in the country. In addition, other policies that encourage a reduction in lending interest rate (such as a credit guarantee scheme) should be put in place so as to enable MSMEs to access more credit at a cheaper interest rate.

GRADUATES ON LABOUR MARKET IN ROMANIA. PRECARITY OR RESILIENCE?

Young people on the labor market is a topical issue both in academia and in the latest European and national policies. Young graduates are no exception. They invest in education and want a better match of their studies with the job. Some analyzes performed on AMIGO data and data performed with economics graduates help us to analyze the existing situation. The conclusions show us significant differences in terms of income, in terms of the field of study as well as the mismatch with the graduated field. In terms of gender, there are differences in job satisfaction, with men being more likely to reach leadership positions than women.

AN IMPLEMENTATION PROPOSAL OF INNOVATIVE PRICING IN GREEK COASTAL SHIPPING

Greek coastal shipping is an industry which passed from the state regulatory interference to market forces. Its fare structure (tariff) was based on average (or total) cost and distance was the representative cost variable. As it is an industry facing strong economies of scale, average cost is higher than marginal cost. This means that companies equalizing prices to marginal cost, following Pareto–efficient allocation of resources, are driven to losses and are forced to seek other methods of efficient pricing policy. The purpose of this article is to examine the implementation of “innovative” pricing in Greek coastal shipping. “Innovative” pricing contains applicable measures in order to increase ticket prices in “peak” periods without affecting the level of quality, the number of passengers and the market share. The analysis results show that average fare will not necessarily raise. Ticket increases may be accompanied by quantitative discounts in periods of low demand. In these cases, “season tickets” can be applied.

THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURES AND TRANSPORTATION SERVICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: RECENT EVIDENCE FROM HIGH-, MIDDLE- AND LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES

This study investigates the links between digital infrastructures (DI); transportation services (TS) and economic growth using simultaneous-equation panel data models for a panel of 62 countries for the period 2000-2018. The results indicate that there is evidence of bidirectional relationship between DI and economic process. Economic growth and TS are interrelated bidirectional relationship. Bidirectional link is validated between DI and TS for high-income and middle-income countries. Unidirectional causality is running from TS to DI for low incomes countries. These empirical insights are of particular interest to policymakers, working in low incomes countries. They help them to develop modern DI and TS to sustain economic development and to push substantial changes within the way of life and productivity. This has led to enormous technological advancement which is in line with but at a faster pace than the technological advancement of previous revolutions.

PHASES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH INNOVATION AND EDUCATION

This paper analyzes the transitional dynamics of an endogenous growth model with physical capital, human capital and R&D in which both human capital and innovation drives long run growth. The model suggests that the developing economy follows different stages of development. The first phase is characterized by physical capital accumulation. At the second stage, human capital accumulation represents the main engine of long run growth. The third phase is identified by an increasing variety of intermediate good originating from innovation. However, innovation is not assured for poor economies. In this case, permanent support for innovation can lead a sustainable exit from poverty trap.

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE AND ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE IN THE NIGERIAN MANUFACTURING SECTOR

In this study, we examined the impact of supply chain management practices (SCMP): strategic supplier partnership, customer relationship, level of information shared, and information quality on competitive advantage and organizational performance in the Nigerian manufacturing sector. In so doing, this study was set out to find out if these practices generate conditions that promote higher or lesser competitive advantage and organizational performance. The survey research design was adopted because the characteristics of the respondents were fully captured in other to make important decisions. A total number of 122 were found usable out of 146 copies of questionnaire circulated. The structural equation modelling (SEM) was the estimation technique employed to measure the relationships among the various variables/constructs using AMOS 22.0. It was found out that the four predictors (strategic supplier partnership, customer relationship, level of information shared, information quality) of SCMP had significant impact on organizational performance. The study also revealed that of the four independent variables, three (strategic supplier partnership, customer relationship, and level of information shared) had significant impact on competitive advantage, while information quality had no significant impact on competitive advantage. In response to our research questions, we concluded that the four constructs or predictors generate conditions that promote higher competitive advantage and organizational performance in the Nigerian manufacturing sector. The study recommended that manufacturing organizations should share quality, timely and accurate information to ensure their product offerings can be altered to meet customers while offering competitive prices. The study further recommended that organizations should assist its suppliers to improve product quality; regularly relate with clients to set dependability, receptiveness, and other standards; notify trading partners early when changing needs arises; and have fast product development.

GLOBALIZATION AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA: A CURSE OR CURE?

The question whether globalization and its corresponding impacts carry a blessing or curse in developing countries has been a controversial issue among both the scholars and the policymakers, against this background this study provided an empirical answer to the question whether globalisation is a curse or cure to industrial development in Nigeria between 1990 and 2019 within the framework of the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Granger causality test. Consequently, the following principal findings emerged in this study. Firstly, both FDI inflows and trade openness which depict economic globalization had a negative relationship with industrial development respectively. Though, trade openness was significant while FDI inflows showed otherwise. In the same vein, a unidirectional causality ran from manufacturing value added to FDI inflows. However, no feedback relationship existed between trade openness and manufacturing value added. Therefore, this study submits that economic globalization is a curse to industrial development in Nigeria because the wave of economic globalization contributed a significant reduction in manufacturing value added in Nigeria in the last three decades. From these findings, the current wave of economic globalization could be a cure to industrial development in Nigeria, if only the policymakers in the country embark on policies that would drive the largest proportion of the inflows of FDI in the direction of manufacturing sub sector in the country. Similarly, all hands must be on deck by all the relevant stakeholders to ensure that manufactured products in Nigeria possesses value added quality to facilitate their competitiveness in the global market.

OIL PRICE BEHAVIOUR, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENT AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN NIGERIA: ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2020

This paper evaluates the response of oil price and exchange rate to the corona virus pandemic shock aside from the link between oil price and exchange rate for the first three quarters of 2020 in Nigeria. The theoretical framework emanates from the informal approach and the terms of trade channels. Using VAR cointegration approach, results show existence of long run relationship among the oil price, exchange rate movement and the corona virus indicators based on Max-Eigen and Trace test statistic. End of first quarter oil price, discharge rate and fatality rate negatively relate with current exchange rate. First quarter exchange rate and fatality rate positively relates to oil price behaviour in the third quarter while end of first quarter discharge rate increase fosters oil price decline. First quarter spread rate increase gradually reduces oil demand and the price in the third quarter. All corona virus indicators and exchange rate variable Granger Cause current oil price. Diversification is key to widen export base and increase foreign exchange and stability. Policy measures to sustain the economy in the post COVID-19 and beyond are necessary for long term development.