scholarly journals Artificial Learning Dispatch Planning with Probabilistic Forecasts: Using Uncertainties as an Asset

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 616
Author(s):  
Ana Carolina do Amaral Burghi ◽  
Tobias Hirsch ◽  
Robert Pitz-Paal
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Model Following ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Artificial Learning

Weather forecast uncertainty is a key element for energy market volatility. By intelligently considering uncertainties on the schedule development, renewable energy systems with storage could improve dispatching accuracy, and therefore, effectively participate in electricity wholesale markets. Deterministic forecasts have been traditionally used to support dispatch planning, representing reduced or no uncertainty information about the future weather. Aiming at better representing the uncertainties involved, probabilistic forecasts have been developed to increase forecasting accuracy. For the dispatch planning, this can highly influence the development of a more precise schedule. This work extends a dispatch planning method to the use of probabilistic weather forecasts. The underlying method used a schedule optimizer coupled to a post-processing machine learning algorithm. This machine learning algorithm was adapted to include probabilistic forecasts, considering their additional information on uncertainties. This post-processing applied a calibration of the planned schedule considering the knowledge about uncertainties obtained from similar past situations. Simulations performed with a concentrated solar power plant model following the proposed strategy demonstrated promising financial improvement and relevant potential in dealing with uncertainties. Results especially show that information included in probabilistic forecasts can increase financial revenues up to 15% (in comparison to a persistence solar driven approach) if processed in a suitable way.

scholarly journals A framework for probabilistic weather forecast post-processing across models and lead times using machine learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 379 (2194) ◽  
pp. 20200099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlie Kirkwood ◽  
Theo Economou ◽  
Henry Odbert ◽  
Nicolas Pugeault
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data-intensive exercise. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the forecasting skill of NWP models continues to improve, the number and complexity of these models poses a new challenge for the operational meteorologist: how should the information from all available models, each with their own unique biases and limitations, be combined in order to provide stakeholders with well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts to use in decision making? In this paper, we use a road surface temperature example to demonstrate a three-stage framework that uses machine learning to bridge the gap between sets of separate forecasts from NWP models and the ‘ideal’ forecast for decision support: probabilities of future weather outcomes. First, we use quantile regression forests to learn the error profile of each numerical model, and use these to apply empirically derived probability distributions to forecasts. Second, we combine these probabilistic forecasts using quantile averaging. Third, we interpolate between the aggregate quantiles in order to generate a full predictive distribution, which we demonstrate has properties suitable for decision support. Our results suggest that this approach provides an effective and operationally viable framework for the cohesive post-processing of weather forecasts across multiple models and lead times to produce a well-calibrated probabilistic output. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Machine learning for weather and climate modelling’.

Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Early Complications after Brain Tumor Surgery

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.H.B. van Niftrik ◽  
F. van der Wouden ◽  
V. Staartjes ◽  
J. Fierstra ◽  
M. Stienen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Brain Tumor ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Tumor Surgery ◽  
Early Complications ◽  
Brain Tumor Surgery

Feature extraction and prediction of Dengue Outbreaks

2020 ◽  
pp. 216-222
Author(s):  
Kunal Parikh ◽  
Tanvi Makadia ◽  
Harshil Patel
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Health Concerns ◽  
The World ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks

Dengue is unquestionably one of the biggest health concerns in India and for many other developing countries. Unfortunately, many people have lost their lives because of it. Every year, approximately 390 million dengue infections occur around the world among which 500,000 people are seriously infected and 25,000 people have died annually. Many factors could cause dengue such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, inadequate public health, and many others. In this paper, we are proposing a method to perform predictive analytics on dengue’s dataset using KNN: a machine-learning algorithm. This analysis would help in the prediction of future cases and we could save the lives of many.

SMART IDENTIFICATION OF POWER QUALITY EVENTS USING NEW STOCKWELL TRANSFORM AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM

2019 ◽  
Vol XVI (4) ◽  
pp. 95-113
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Tahir Mehmood
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Power Quality ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Noisy Environments ◽  
Satisfactory Performance ◽  
Feature Values ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Stockwell Transform ◽  
Electrical Utilities

Accurate detection, classification and mitigation of power quality (PQ) distortive events are of utmost importance for electrical utilities and corporations. An integrated mechanism is proposed in this paper for the identification of PQ distortive events. The proposed features are extracted from the waveforms of the distortive events using modified form of Stockwell’s transform. The categories of the distortive events were determined based on these feature values by applying extreme learning machine as an intelligent classifier. The proposed methodology was tested under the influence of both the noisy and noiseless environments on a database of seven thousand five hundred simulated waveforms of distortive events which classify fifteen types of PQ events such as impulses, interruptions, sags and swells, notches, oscillatory transients, harmonics, and flickering as single stage events with their possible integrations. The results of the analysis indicated satisfactory performance of the proposed method in terms of accuracy in classifying the events in addition to its reduced sensitivity under various noisy environments.

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