scholarly journals Impact of Long-Term Water Inflow Uncertainty on Wholesale Electricity Prices in Markets with High Shares of Renewable Energies and Storages

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2347
Author(s):  
Heike Scheben ◽  
Nikolai Klempp ◽  
Kai Hufendiek
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Renewable Energies ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Water Inflow ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Linear Optimisation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dual Dynamic Programming

Renewable energy shares in electricity markets are increasing and therefore also require an increase in flexibility options. Conventional electricity price modelling with optimisation models in thermally dominated markets is not appropriate in markets with high shares of renewable energies and storages because price structures are not adequately represented. Previous research has already identified the impact of uncertainty in renewable energy feed-in on investment and dispatch decisions. However, we are not aware of any work that investigates the influence of uncertainties on price structures by means of optimisation models. Appropriate modelling of electricity price structures is important for investment and policy decisions. We have investigated the influence of uncertainty concerning water inflow by applying a second stage stochastic dual dynamic programming approach in a linear optimisation model using Norway as an example. We found that the influence of uncertainty concerning water inflow combined with high shares of storages has a strong impact on the electricity price structures. The identified structures are highly influenced by seasonal water inflow, electricity demand, wind, and export profiles. Additionally, they are reinforced by seasonal primary energy source prices and import prices. Incorporating uncertainties in linear optimisation models improves the price modelling and provides, to a large extent, an explanation for the seasonal patterns of Norwegian electricity market prices. The paper explains the basic pricing mechanisms in markets with high shares of storages and renewable energies which are subject to uncertainty. To identify these fundamental mechanisms, we focused on uncertainty regarding water inflow, but the basic results hold true for uncertainties regarding other renewable energies as well.

scholarly journals Operational Planning and Bidding for District Heating Systems with Uncertain Renewable Energy Production

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Blanco ◽  
Daniela Guericke ◽  
Anders Andersen ◽  
Henrik Madsen
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Operational Planning ◽  
Solution Approach ◽  
The Impact

In countries with an extended use of district heating (DH), the integrated operation of DH and power systems can increase the flexibility of the power system, achieving a higher integration of renewable energy sources (RES). DH operators can not only provide flexibility to the power system by acting on the electricity market, but also profit from the situation to lower the overall system cost. However, the operational planning and bidding includes several uncertain components at the time of planning: electricity prices as well as heat and power production from RES. In this publication, we propose a planning method based on stochastic programming that supports DH operators by scheduling the production and creating bids for the day-ahead and balancing electricity markets. We apply our solution approach to a real case study in Denmark and perform an extensive analysis of the production and trading behavior of the DH system. The analysis provides insights on system costs, how DH system can provide regulating power, and the impact of RES on the planning.

scholarly journals Considerations Regarding the Negative Prices on the Electricity Market

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Pavel Atănăsoae ◽  
Radu Dumitru Pentiuc ◽  
Eugen Hopulele
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Market Areas ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Market Coupling

Increasing of intermittent production from renewable energy sources significantly affects the distribution of electricity prices. In this paper, we analyze the impact of renewable energy sources on the formation of electricity prices on the Day-Ahead Market (DAM). The case of the 4M Market Coupling Project is analyzed: Czech-Slovak-Hungarian-Romanian market areas. As a result of the coupling of electricity markets and the increasing share of renewable energy sources, different situations have been identified in which prices are very volatile.

scholarly journals Renewable electricity in Western Balkans: Support policies and current state

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (6 Part A) ◽  
pp. 2281-2296
Author(s):  
Nikola Rakic ◽  
Dusan Gordic ◽  
Vanja Sustersic ◽  
Mladen Josijevic ◽  
Milun Babic
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Current State ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
The Impact

The use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation in the Western Balkan countries is analyzed in this review paper. Since those countries are part of EU or intend to be, data for Western Balkan are also compared with data for EU-28. The first part of the paper presents a brief overview of main promotion mechanism for electricity generation from renewable energy sources. As a dominant support policy, the feed-in tariff is more elaborated as an incentive measure and a de?tailed overview of the amount of tariffs and quotas for dominant technologies in the Western Balkan countries is presented. Furthermore, the current state of installed capacities and annual productions of three particular renewable electricity technologies (small hydro power, wind power, and solar photovoltaic) are analyzed in detailes. Based on presented data, there is a discussion and consideration of the impact of incentive measures on the electricity market and power production from renewable sources.

scholarly journals Probabilistic evaluation of renewable energy curtailment under forward electricity market

2020 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 02005
Author(s):  
Jiheng Jiang ◽  
Ying Qiao ◽  
Zongxiang Lu ◽  
Liang Ran ◽  
Ming Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Load Capacity ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Probabilistic Evaluation ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Financial Contract ◽  
Unit Output ◽  
Electricity Shortage ◽  
The Impact

Forward electricity market has emerged as a pivotal section for the electricity transaction to keep stakeholders away from price risk and electricity shortage. But the forward contract of conventional unit partially limits the unit output before operation, leading to the curtailed generation share of renewable energy source (RES). Modeling and assessing this impact is of great significance for system planning and market supervision. The central thesis of this paper is to find out the impact of forward market on RES curtailment. A probabilistic evaluation model for RES accommodation is proposed, taking the curtailment rate as a main evaluation index. We mainly research financial contract and physical contract, modeling the impact of them on thermal unit minimum load capacity and power load in evaluation model. The simulation is conducted in a simplified system, which reveals the change of RES curtailment with renege penalty, contract price and execution generation curve.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Administrative Phase-Out of Coal Power Plants on the Italian Electricity Market

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 4596
Author(s):  
Michele Fiorelli ◽  
Dogan Keles ◽  
Francesco Montana ◽  
Giovanni Lorenzo Restifo ◽  
Eleonora Riva Sanseverino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Small Variation ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Coal Power Plants ◽  
Coal Power ◽  
Phase Out ◽  
The Impact

Although decarbonisation is one of the most important macro-trends of this century, electricity generation from coal power plants is still broadly common. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of a premature coal power plants phase-out on the Italian day-ahead electricity market. For this purpose, two electricity price forecasts, related to different scenarios between 2019 and 2030, and two different hypotheses for the creation of electricity spot price, were compared. The results from the different scenarios show that coal power plants phase-out determines a small variation in electricity price when bid-up is not considered; instead, when operators’ bid-up is included in the study, the price variation becomes relevant.

Electricity Price of Hybrid Power System and Decision Making of Renewable Energy Investment Capacity

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaping Xie ◽  
Weisi Zhang ◽  
Yu Xia ◽  
Ling Liang ◽  
Lingcheng Kong
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Power System ◽  
Power Supply ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Sensitivity Coefficient ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Hybrid Power System ◽  
Hybrid Power ◽  
Installed Capacity

Abstract In the existing electricity market, the traditional power suppliers and renewable energy generators coexist in the power supply side. In the power supply side, renewable energy generators generate power by wind and other natural conditions, leading renewable energy output a certain randomness. However, the low marginal generating cost and the reduction of carbon emissions, and thus brings a certain advantage for renewable energy compared to alternative energy. Electricity, as a special commodity, stable and adequate power supply is a necessary guarantee for economic and social development. Power shortage situation is not allowed in the power system, and the extra power needs to be handled for the purpose of safety. In this paper, the hybrid power generated by renewable energy generators and traditional energy generators is used as power supply, and then the electricity market sells hybrid power to electricity consumers, the hybrid power system determines the optimal daytime price, nighttime price, and the optimal installed capacity of the renewable energy suppliers. We find that the installed capacity of renewable energy increases first and then decreases with the increase of the price sensitivity coefficient of traditional energy supply. Electricity demand is negatively related to electricity price in the current period, and is positively related to price in the other period. The average price of day and night is only related to the total potential demand of day and night and the total generation probability of renewable energy. The price difference between daytime and nighttime is positively related to potential electricity demand, and negatively related to the sensitivity coefficient of electricity price.

scholarly journals Scenario Analysis in the Electric Power Industry under the Implementation of the Electricity Market Reform and a Carbon Policy in China

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 2152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Wang ◽  
Meng Li
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Economic Dispatch ◽  
Energy Generation ◽  
Market Reform ◽  
Carbon Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy Generation ◽  
The Impact

In China, electricity market reform was first implemented in 2015. At the same time, the national carbon market was built, along with the electricity industry, which was considered a breakthrough. Some key considerations for the future development of China’s electricity system include the implementation of demand-side measures in order to adjust the peak-to-valley difference and the economic dispatch of increasing intermittent renewable energy and traditional energy in the process of power marketization with the implementation of a carbon policy. This paper examines the impact of policies on electricity generation by modelling the evolution process of power marketization and the economic dispatch of generation technologies over a sixteen-year period beginning in 2020. We model four potential influencing factors of government policy: (1) the demand response mode; (2) power marketization process; (3) capacity adjustment of thermal power units; and (4) carbon taxes, which vary in terms of their timing and amount. This model assesses the impact of these influencing factors on the competition between electricity generators using a range of output variables, including generation portfolios, electricity prices, capacity factors, CO2 emissions, etc. The results show that the new round of electricity market reforms has had a positive impact on renewable energy generation. The influence of carbon policy is evident in the promotion, transformation and elimination of thermal units, and an indirect increase in renewable energy generation.

scholarly journals The Implications of Policy Uncertainty on Solar Photovoltaic Investment

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 6233
Author(s):  
Martina Assereto ◽  
Julie Byrne
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Solar Photovoltaic ◽  
Price Uncertainty ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Renewable Energy Investment

Policy and electricity price uncertainty provide disincentives to investors considering renewable energy investments. While electricity price uncertainty impacts on investment decisions relating to any energy investment, whether renewable or non-renewable, policy uncertainty will affect renewable energy investment decisions to a far greater extent. In this study, we consider the two main sources of uncertainty a solar Photovoltaic (PV) project is exposed to: electricity price uncertainty and policy uncertainty. We focus our analysis on utility-scale solar photovoltaics in the Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland Power Pool (PJM) electricity market and the New Jersey Solar Renewable Energy Credit (SREC) market. Using Solar Renewable Energy Credits as a proxy for policy, we find that there is considerable volatility in both electricity prices and policy. In a sample covering eleven years, we implement univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) and combinations of GARCH models with different weighting schemes and find that combination models provide superior forecasts. In renewable energy markets, policy supports have a significant impact on an investment’s profitability. The implication for policymakers is clear: to foster investment in solar PV, policy stability is critical.

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