scholarly journals Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 7765
Author(s):  
Jonathan Asante ◽  
William Ampomah ◽  
Dylan Rose-Coss ◽  
Martha Cather ◽  
Robert Balch

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 4828-4834 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.J. Smith ◽  
D.J. Noy ◽  
S. Holloway ◽  
R.A. Chadwick

2013 ◽  
Vol 291-294 ◽  
pp. 536-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Wei Wang ◽  
Jian Hua Zhang ◽  
Cheng Jiang ◽  
Lei Yu

The conventional deterministic methods have been unable to accurately assess the active power output of the wind farm being the random and intermittent of wind power, and the probabilistic methods commonly used to solve this problem. In this paper the multi-state fault model is built considering run, outage and derating state of wind turbine, and then the reliability model of the wind farm is established considering the randomness of the wind speed, the wind farm wake effects and turbine failure. The active wind farm output probability assessment methods and processes based on the Monte Carlo method. The related programs are written in MATLAB, and the probability assessment for active power output of a wind farm in carried out, the effectiveness and adaptability of built reliability models and assessment methods are illustrated by analysis of the effects of reliability parameters and model parameters on assessment results.


SPE Journal ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (06) ◽  
pp. 1058-1068 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.. Bolourinejad ◽  
R.. Herber

Summary Depleted gas fields are among the most probable candidates for subsurface storage of carbon dioxide (CO2). With proven reservoir and qualified seal, these fields have retained gas over geological time scales. However, unlike methane, injection of CO2 changes the pH of the brine because of the formation of carbonic acid. Subsequent dissolution/precipitation of minerals changes the porosity/permeability of reservoir and caprock. Thus, for adequate, safe, and effective CO2 storage, the subsurface system needs to be fully understood. An important aspect for subsurface storage of CO2 is purity of this gas, which influences risk and cost of the process. To investigate the effects of CO2 plus impurities in a real case example, we have carried out medium-term (30-day) laboratory experiments (300 bar, 100°C) on reservoir and caprock core samples from gas fields in the northeast of the Netherlands. In addition, we attempted to determine the maximum allowable concentration of one of the possible impurities in the CO2 stream [hydrogen sulfide (H2S)] in these fields. The injected gases—CO2, CO2+100 ppm H2S, and CO2+5,000 ppm H2S—were reacting with core samples and brine (81 g/L Na+, 173 g/L Cl−, 22 g/L Ca2+, 23 g/L Mg2+, 1.5 g/L K+, and 0.2 g/L SO42−). Before and after the experiments, the core samples were analyzed by scanning electron microscope (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) for mineralogical variations. The permeability of the samples was also measured. After the experiments, dissolution of feldspars, carbonates, and kaolinite was observed as expected. In addition, we observed fresh precipitation of kaolinite. However, two significant results were obtained when adding H2S to the CO2 stream. First, we observed precipitation of sulfate minerals (anhydrite and pyrite). This differs from results after pure CO2 injection, where dissolution of anhydrite was dominant in the samples. Second, severe salt precipitation took place in the presence of H2S. This is mainly caused by the nucleation of anhydrite and pyrite, which enabled halite precipitation, and to a lesser degree by the higher solubility of H2S in water and higher water content of the gas phase in the presence of H2S. This was confirmed by the use of CMG-GEM (CMG 2011) modeling software. The precipitation of halite, anhydrite, and pyrite affects the permeability of the samples in different ways. After pure CO2 and CO2+100 ppm H2S injection, permeability of the reservoir samples increased by 10–30% and ≤3%, respectively. In caprock samples, permeability increased by a factor of 3–10 and 1.3, respectively. However, after addition of 5,000 ppm H2S, the permeability of all samples decreased significantly. In the case of CO2+100 ppm H2S, halite, anhydrite, and pyrite precipitation did balance mineral dissolution, causing minimal variation in the permeability of samples.


Author(s):  
Zheming Zhang ◽  
Ramesh Agarwal

With recent concerns on CO2 emissions from coal fired electricity generation plants; there has been major emphasis on the development of safe and economical Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration (CCS) technology worldwide. Saline reservoirs are attractive geological sites for CO2 sequestration because of their huge capacity for sequestration. Over the last decade, numerical simulation codes have been developed in U.S, Europe and Japan to determine a priori the CO2 storage capacity of a saline aquifer and provide risk assessment with reasonable confidence before the actual deployment of CO2 sequestration can proceed with enormous investment. In U.S, TOUGH2 numerical simulator has been widely used for this purpose. However at present it does not have the capability to determine optimal parameters such as injection rate, injection pressure, injection depth for vertical and horizontal wells etc. for optimization of the CO2 storage capacity and for minimizing the leakage potential by confining the plume migration. This paper describes the development of a “Genetic Algorithm (GA)” based optimizer for TOUGH2 that can be used by the industry with good confidence to optimize the CO2 storage capacity in a saline aquifer of interest. This new code including the TOUGH2 and the GA optimizer is designated as “GATOUGH2”. It has been validated by conducting simulations of three widely used benchmark problems by the CCS researchers worldwide: (a) Study of CO2 plume evolution and leakage through an abandoned well, (b) Study of enhanced CH4 recovery in combination with CO2 storage in depleted gas reservoirs, and (c) Study of CO2 injection into a heterogeneous geological formation. Our results of these simulations are in excellent agreement with those of other researchers obtained with different codes. The validated code has been employed to optimize the proposed water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection scheme for (a) a vertical CO2 injection well and (b) a horizontal CO2 injection well, for optimizing the CO2 sequestration capacity of an aquifer. These optimized calculations are compared with the brute force nearly optimized results obtained by performing a large number of calculations. These comparisons demonstrate the significant efficiency and accuracy of GATOUGH2 as an optimizer for TOUGH2. This capability holds a great promise in studying a host of other problems in CO2 sequestration such as how to optimally accelerate the capillary trapping, accelerate the dissolution of CO2 in water or brine, and immobilize the CO2 plume.


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