scholarly journals Do COVID-19 Lock-Downs Affect Business Cycle? Analysis Using Energy Consumption Cycle Clock for Selected European Countries

Energies ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 340
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Kufel ◽  
Paweł Kufel ◽  
Marcin Błażejowski
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Pharmaceutical Drugs ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

On 11 March 2020, the WHO declared the COVID-19 epidemic to be a global pandemic. This was a consequence of the rapid increase in the number of people with positive test results, the increase in deaths due to COVID-19, and the lack of pharmaceutical drugs. Governments introduced national lockdowns, which have impacted both energy consumption and economies. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: do COVID-19 lockdowns affect the business cycle? We used the cycle clock approach to assess the magnitude of decrease in electricity consumption in the three waves of the epidemic, namely, April 2020, November 2021, and April 2021. Additionally, we checked the relation between energy consumption and GDP by means of spectral analysis. Results for selected 28 European countries confirm an impact of the introduced non-pharmaceutical interventions on both energy consumption and business cycle. The reduction of restrictions in subsequent pandemic waves increased electricity consumption, which suggests movement out of the economic recession.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahim Chibi ◽  
Sidi Mohamed Chekouri ◽  
Mohamed Benbouziane
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

scholarly journals The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 96-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denise R. Osborn ◽  
Marianne Sensier
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Linkages ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk

This paper discusses recent research at the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research on the prediction of the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle for the UK, US, Germany, France and Italy. Financial variables are important predictors in these models, with the stock market playing a key role in the US but not the European countries, including the UK. In contrast, international linkages are important for the European countries. Our models suggest that the US and German economies have now emerged from the recession of 2001, and that all five countries will be in expansion during the third quarter of this year.

scholarly journals A Statistical Investigation of Business Cycles Characteristics in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol II (I) ◽  
pp. 73-84
Author(s):  
Niaz Ali ◽  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Asia Baig
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Statistical Investigation ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Nominal Variables

This study investigates the business cycle characteristics for Pakistan using three sets of variables namely expenditure components of GDP, nominal variables and real variables. The findings reveal that the volatility of expenditure components are greater than GDP during the full sample of 1973 to 2015. Whereas, in the Pre-SAP and Post-SAP periods i.e. 1973-1988 and 1989-2015, real variables and nominal variables show more volatility than GDP. And, in terms of co-movement, expenditure components of GDP showed strong pro-cyclicality and relationship with GDP against other sets of variables. Moreover, the nominal variables show positive persistence and the business cycles caused by it, lasting for a long time against real variables and expenditure components of GDP. Furthermore, the results show that the correlation between CPI and GDP across all periods is counter cyclical. The stability test results show that business cycles features remained stable during two time periods.

scholarly journals Maquiladora Downturn: Structural Change Or Cyclical Factors?

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesus Canas ◽  
Roberto Coronado ◽  
Robert W. Gilmer
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Mexican Government ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Employment Decline

Mexicos maquiladora industry is currently the focus of much attention in the media, in corporate boardrooms, and among Mexican government officials. After watching the maquiladora industry sustain its biggest ever employment decline in recent years, many observers now question the industrys future in Mexico. The 2001 U.S. economic recession took a heavy toll on Mexicos maquiladora industry, although the size of the industrys contraction during the recent recessionalmost 260,000 jobssuggests there are more factors at work than the mild business cycle. The advantages of operating plants in Mexico, such as low wages and tax incentives, are now offered by a number of developing countries. At the same time, location has become less important for many products, as innovations in transportation and technology lower shipping costs. This paper attempts to estimate how much of the current maquiladora downturn is due to the business cycle and how much is due to structural changes. We use the Branson-Love methodology to estimate structural and cyclical impacts on the maquiladora employment downturn. Results suggest that the 2001 U.S. recession and rising real wages in Mexico account for much of the maquiladora downturn. Historically, these are the two most important factors during maquiladora growth, but new factors such as Chinas membership in the World Trade Organization, the Caribbean initiative and implementation of NAFTA Article 303 have changed corporate options for plant location or affected the cost structure in Mexico. Although our statistical results strongly suggest a recovery in maquiladora employment, potentially important qualifications are discussed as well.

scholarly journals SPECIALIZATION OF EUROPEAN WORKERS IN TIMES OF ECONOMIC RECESSION AND EXPANSION

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-97
Author(s):  
Tatiana Polonyankina
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Labor Mobility ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
East Europe ◽  
Native Workers ◽  
Lower Education ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Expansion Period ◽  
South Europe ◽  
Recession Period

Majority of studies proved that labor mobility and the effect of immigration differs with respect to the business cycle. The aim of the paper is to investigate differences in workers allocation within European countries during recession and expansion period. The presented analysis split European counties on two groups: a) West and South Europe; b) Middle and East Europe (post-communist economies). The specialization of workers is studied concentrating on differences between natives and immigrants with secondary or lower education. For the expansion period was found a sizable relocation of native workers to occupations with more interactive rather than manual content after immigration in West and South European counties. This effect was not found for recession period and for post-communist economies.

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