scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae) in China by Incorporating Climate Change into a Maxent Model

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keliang Zhang ◽  
Yin Zhang ◽  
Jun Tao
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

A detailed understanding of species distribution is usually a prerequisite for the rehabilitation and utilization of species in an ecosystem. Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae), which is an endemic species of China, is an ornamental and medicinal plant that features high economic and ecological values. With the decrease of its population in recent decades, it has become a locally endangered species. In present study, we modeled the potential distribution of P. veitchii under current and future conditions, and evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution. The results revealed a highly and moderately suitable habitat for P. veitchii that encompassed ca. 605,114 km2. The central area lies in northwest Sichuan Province. Elevation, temperature seasonality, annual mean precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were identified as the most important factors shaping the distribution of P. veitchii. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6), we predicted an overall expansion of the potential distribution by 2050, followed by a slight contraction in 2070. However, with the scenario featuring intense greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5), the range of suitable habitat should increase with the increasing intensity of global warming. The information that was obtained in the present study can provide background information related to the long-term conservation of this species.

scholarly journals Predicting the potential distribution of the parasitic Cuscuta chinensis under global warming

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zichun Ren ◽  
Lyuben Zagorchev ◽  
Junxia Ma ◽  
Ming Yan ◽  
Junmin Li
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Abstract Background: The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cusucta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant without leaves or roots, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of the parasitic plant C . chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential distribution of C. chinensis, based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Results: The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37°C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000 mm and from 2500 to 3500 mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 20000 mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20° to 50°. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960–1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 increased by 0.0875 million km 2 ; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960–1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 decreased by 0.0759 million km 2 . The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and highsuitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km 2 . Conclusion: Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management of C. chinensis.

scholarly journals Predicting the potential distribution of the parasitic Cuscuta chinensis under global warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zichun Ren ◽  
Lyuben Zagorchev ◽  
Junxia Ma ◽  
Ming Yan ◽  
Junmin Li
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Cuscuta Chinensis ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Abstract Background: The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cuscuta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant without leaves or roots, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of the parasitic plant C. chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential global distribution of C. chinensis, based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter.Results: The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37°C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000 mm and from 2500 to 3500 mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 20000 mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20° N to 50° N. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960–1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 increased by 0.0875 million km2; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960–1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 decreased by 0.0759 million km2. The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and high suitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km2.Conclusion: Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management and control of C. chinensis.

scholarly journals Predicting the potential distribution of the parasitic Cuscuta chinensis under global warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zichun Ren ◽  
Lyuben Zagorchev ◽  
Junxia Ma ◽  
Ming Yan ◽  
Junmin Li
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Cuscuta Chinensis ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Abstract Background: The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cuscuta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of C . chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential global distribution of C. chinensis , based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Results: The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37°C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000 mm and from 2500 to 3500 mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 20000 mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20° N to 50° N. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960–1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 increased by 0.0875 million km 2 ; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960–1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 decreased by 0.0759 million km 2 . The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and high suitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km 2 . Conclusion: Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management and control of C. chinensis .

scholarly journals The Influence of Climate Change on Three Dominant Alpine Species under Different Scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 682
Author(s):  
Huawei Hu ◽  
Yanqiang Wei ◽  
Wenying Wang ◽  
Chunya Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Picea Crassifolia ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Sabina Przewalskii ◽  
Dominant Plant Species ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) with high altitude and low temperature is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and has recently experienced continuous warming. The species distribution on the QTP has undergone significant changes especially an upward shift with global warming in the past decades. In this study, two dominant trees (Picea crassifolia Kom and Sabina przewalskii Kom) and one dominant shrub (Potentilla parvifolia Fisch) were selected and their potential distributions using the MaxEnt model during three periods (current, the 2050s and the 2070s) were predicted. The predictions were based on four shared socio-economic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, namely, SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0, SSP8.5. The predicted current potential distribution of three species was basically located in the northeastern of QTP, and the distribution of three species was most impacted by aspect, elevation, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, Subsoil CEC (clay), Subsoil bulk density and Subsoil CEC (soil). There were significant differences in the potential distribution of three species under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s including expanding, shifting, and shrinking. The total suitable habitat for Picea crassifolia shrank under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and enlarged under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. On the contrary, the total suitable habitat for Sabina przewalskii enlarged under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, SSP7.0 and shrank under SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The total suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia continued to increase with SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 in the 2070s. The average elevation in potentially suitable habitat for Potentilla parvifolia all increased except under SSP8.5 in the 2050s. Our study provides an important reference for the conservation of Picea crassifolia, Sabina przewalskii, Potentilla parvifolia and other dominant plant species on the QTP under future climate change.

Low-Carbon Russia: Prospects after the Crisis

2009 ◽  
pp. 107-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bashmakov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Scenario Approach

On the eve of the worldwide negotiations of a new climate agreement in December 2009 in Copenhagen it is important to clearly understand what Russia can do to mitigate energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in the medium (until 2020) and in the long term (until 2050). The paper investigates this issue using modeling tools and scenario approach. It concludes that transition to the "Low-Carbon Russia" scenarios must be accomplished in 2020—2030 or sooner, not only to mitigate emissions, but to block potential energy shortages and its costliness which can hinder economic growth.

Ecological specificities of the interaction between animal breeding and climate changes, caused by greenhouse gas emissions

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 62-72
Author(s):  
O. Zhukorsky ◽  
O. Nykyforuk ◽  
N. Boltyk
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Animal Breeding ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Emissions Inventory ◽  
Theoretical Substantiation ◽  
Global Problems

Aim. Proper development of animal breeding in the conditions of current global problems and the decrease of anthropogenic burden on environment due to greenhouse gas emissions, caused by animal breeding activity, require the study of interaction processes between animal breeding and external climatic conditions. Methods. The theoretical substantiation of the problem was performed based on scientifi c literature, statistical informa- tion of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the data of the National greenhouse gas emissions inventory in Ukraine. Theoretically possible emissions of greenhouse gases into atmosphere due to animal breeding in Ukraine and specifi c farms are calculated by the international methods using the statistical infor- mation about animal breeding in Ukraine and the economic-technological information of the activity of the investigated farms. Results. The interaction between the animal breeding production and weather-and-climate conditions of environment was analyzed. Possible vectors of activity for the industry, which promote global warming and negative processes, related to it, were determined. The main factors, affecting the formation of greenhouse gases from the activity of enterprises, aimed at animal breeding production, were characterized. Literature data, statistical data and calculations were used to analyze the role of animal breeding in the green- house gas emissions in global and national framework as well as at the level of specifi c farms with the consid- eration of individual specifi cities of these farms. Conclusions. Current global problems require clear balance between constant development of sustainable animal breeding and the decrease of the carbon footprint due to the activity of animal breeding.

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