scholarly journals Projecting Global and Regional Forest Area under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Using an Updated Environmental Kuznets Curve Model

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nepal ◽  
Korhonen ◽  
Prestemon ◽  
Cubbage

Forest resources are critical to environmental, economic, and social development, and there is substantial interest in understanding how global forest area will evolve in the future. Using an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model of total forest area that we updated using more recent data sets, we projected forest area through 2100 in 168 countries using variables including income, rural population density, and the size of the labor force under different world visions drawn from alternative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Results provided support for the existence of an EKC for total forest area, with rural population density negatively affecting forest area and labor force size positively affecting forest area. The projections showed modest and continuous increases in global forest area in all the SSPs, but varying trends for major world regions, which is consistent with the projected trends from the explanatory variables in each country. Aggregate global forest area is projected to increase by 7% as of 2100 relative to 2015 levels in SSP3, which predicts a future with the lowest rate of economic growth, and by 36% in SSP5, which is a future with the highest rate of economic growth and greater economic equality across countries. The results show how projections driven only by income produce biased results compared to the projections made with an EKC that includes rural population density and labor force variables.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muzzammil Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
Jawad Ahmad Khan ◽  
Zahid Hassan Tarar ◽  
Muhammad Arslan Sarwar


Author(s):  
Shixiang Li ◽  
Jianru Shi ◽  
Qiaosheng Wu

This paper examines the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in upper-middle-income regions of China with the panel data of 21 provinces from 2000 to 2017. The influence mechanism of socio-economic factors on the EKC of these regions is also detected. The results show that the energy consumption EKC fitting map in these regions conforms to the classical environmental Kuznets curve, which is an inverted “N” type, and the inflection point is ahead and more accurate after adding spatial effects. The direct effect of energy consumption has delayed the inflection point, indicating that the level of industrialization, urbanization, and population density have a significant impact on EKC. At the same time, it is found that the level of industrialization and population density have a positive relationship with energy consumption, while the level of urbanization has a negative correlation with energy consumption. The spatial spillover effect of the indirect effects of total energy consumption, coal consumption, and crude oil consumption shows that the level of industrialization has a significant and negative link with EKC. The increase in the level of industrialization will affect the total energy consumption of neighboring areas and the consumption of coal and crude oil.



Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3415
Author(s):  
Bartosz Jóźwik ◽  
Antonina-Victoria Gavryshkiv ◽  
Phouphet Kyophilavong ◽  
Lech Euzebiusz Gruszecki

The rapid economic growth observed in Central European countries in the last thirty years has been the result of profound political changes and economic liberalization. This growth is partly connected with reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the problem of CO2 emissions seems to remain unresolved. The aim of this paper is to test whether the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis holds true for Central European countries in an annual sample data that covers 1995–2016 in most countries. We examine cointegration by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound testing. This is the first study examining the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in individual Central European countries from a long-run perspective, which allows the results to be compared. We confirmed the cointegration, but our estimates confirmed the EKC hypothesis only in Poland. It should also be noted that in all nine countries, energy consumption leads to increased CO2 emissions. The long-run elasticity ranges between 1.5 in Bulgaria and 2.0 in Croatia. We observed exceptionally low long-run elasticity in Estonia (0.49). Our findings suggest that to solve the environmental degradation problem in Central Europe, it is necessary to individualize the policies implemented in the European Union.



2016 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 233-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaosheng Li ◽  
Xia Yan ◽  
Qingxian An ◽  
Ke Chen ◽  
Zhen Shen


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suleyman Yurtkuran

Abstract This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between income, clean energy consumption, exports, imports, urbanization and ecological footprint for Turkey from 1973 to 2015 using the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. The long-term coefficients derived from the ARDL approach demonstrate that import increase the ecological footprint, whereas urbanization and clean energy consumption do not have an impact on environmental pollution in the long-term. In addition, the 2001 dummy variable is negative and statistically significant. The crisis in 2001 slowed down the economic growth rate. This situation also caused reduction of environmental pollution. Moreover, the long run estimates indicate that the EKC hypothesis is valid in Turkey. However, the turning point of per capita income was calculated as $16,045 that outside of the analyzed period. As economic activities increase, human pressure on nature continues to increase. Consequently, the only factor that reduces the ecological footprint has been determined as exports. In contrast, economic growth and clean energy consumption cannot be used as a tool to reduce the ecological footprint. Turkey needs a higher level of per capita income than the threshold level to improve environmental quality.





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