Forecasting Fire Risk in Forest Ecosystems Using Solar Activity Index

Improving forest ecosystems protection management based on a long-term fire hazard forecasting has been studied. Fires long-term dynamics in terms of quantity in various forests has been investigated. Fire risk patterns in forest ecosystems have been established conditional to regional characteristics due to solar period. Fire dynamics and solar periods analytics over multi-year period of time have brought to light that conditions contributing to a high fire frequency in Leningrad and Tver regional forest ecosystems arise in years with maximum and minimum solar activity. A long-term forecast of high forest fire danger periods for the next solar cycle has been performed through parameters of solar activity – Wolf numbers.

Small Area Estimation of Postfire Tree Density Using Continuous Forest Inventory Data

Wildfire activity in the western United States is expanding and many western forests are struggling to regenerate postfire. Accurate estimates of forest regeneration following wildfire are critical for postfire forest management planning and monitoring forest dynamics. National or regional forest inventory programs can provide vegetation data for direct spatiotemporal domain estimation of postfire tree density, but samples within domains of administrative utility may be small (or empty). Indirect domain expansion estimators, which borrow extra-domain sample data to increase precision of domain estimates, offer a possible alternative. This research evaluates domain sample sizes and direct estimates in domains spanning large geographic extents and ranging from 1 to 10 years in temporal scope. In aggregate, domain sample sizes prove too small and standard errors of direct estimates too high. We subsequently compare two indirect estimators—one generated by averaging over observations that are proximate in space, the other by averaging over observations that are proximate in time—on the basis of estimated standard error. We also present a new estimator of the mean squared error (MSE) of indirect domain estimators which accounts for covariance between direct and indirect domain estimates. Borrowing sample data from within the geographic extents of our domains, but from an expanded set of measurement years, proves to be the superior strategy for augmenting domain sample sizes to reduce domain standard errors in this application. However, MSE estimates prove too frequently negative and highly variable for operational utility in this context, even when averaged over multiple proximate domains.

An assessment of the contribution of forest sector to federal and regional fiscal budgets in Russia

The article deals with the problems of effective use of forest ecosystem resources. The purpose of the article is to quantify the socio-economic efficiency of forest management in the regions of Russia. The paper uses the methods of correlation analysis and spatial analysis with the use of Geographic information system technologies. The assessment of the socio-economic efficiency of regional forest management was carried out using the author's methodology. Several quantitative indicators are considered. The calculations allowed us to draw a number of conclusions. In the 2010-2019 period, these indicators in the east of the country, as a rule, are significantly lower than the national average. At the same time, revenues from regional forest management to the consolidated budget of the country in some regions are negative due to the return of the export value added tax. The federal government encourages the development of the forest sector, using the mechanism of Priority Investment Projects, providing significant benefits to large-scale investors. The analysis shows that in general, the Priority Investment Projects mechanism contributes to the development and modernization of the forestry in Russia, but it does not take into account some regional features and needs to be adjusted.

The Development and Application of a GIS-Based Tool to Assess Forest Landscape Restoration Effects on Water Conservation Capacity

In forest landscape restoration, one of the key objectives is to improve the water conservation capacity of the deforested land. A rapid, accurate assessment of the effects of the restoration measures on the water conservation capacity of targeted forests can help forest managers to identify the best practices for forest restoration. However, the traditional assessment tools of forest water conservation function lack a description of forest growth, and are featured by complex computation, which fails to evaluate the effects of forest restoration on the regional forest water conservation capacity in an efficient way. To address this issue, through combining the forest restoration evaluation model (equivalent recovery area, ERA), classic forest water storage capacity estimation (total water storage capacity), this study has taken advantage of ENVI/IDL, ArcGIS Engine/C#.Net to develop the Forest and Water Assessment Tool (FWAT) for assessing the changes of the regional forest landscape and the associated forest water conservation capacity in various forest restoration scenarios. This tool has been successfully applied in the Upper Zagunao watershed, a large forested watershed in the Upper Yangtze River basin. According to the assessment, the forest water conservation capacity of the study watershed consistently increased from about 1580.76 t/hm2 in 2010 to a projected 2014.34 t/hm2 by natural restoration, and 2124.18 t/hm2 by artificial restoration by 2030. The artificial restoration measures yield a better effect on forest water conservation function than natural restoration. By 2030, the forest water conservation capacity of artificial restoration scenario is expected to be about 7% higher than that of natural restoration scenario. The FWAT as an efficient tool to assess the effects of forest restoration measures on regional forest water conservation capacity can provide scientific support for the design of forest restoration and management strategies worldwide.

Economic impacts of partial harvesting: Mitigating mid-term timber supply shortages as a result of pest outbreaks

Natural disturbances such as pest outbreaks have a significant impact on forest dynamics and services, including the loss of mature stands. From a wood production perspective, these disturbances can lead to long-lasting imbalances in the overall age-class structure of the forest, potentially resulting in a shortage of mature harvestable stands. Researchers from Natural Resources Canada’s (NRCan) Canadian Forest Service (CFS) have made a timber supply analysis of the Dunière forest located in the centre of the Gaspé Peninsula (Québec). This region suffers from an age-class structure imbalance caused by an eastern spruce budworm (ESB) outbreak that ended in 1984, and is consequently facing a reduced annual allowable cut, leading to long- term implications for the regional forest sector. The authors suggest that partial harvesting – the removal of a proportion of timber in a mature stand several years before a final cut is carried out – is a promising opportunity in the ESB-affected area for mitigating mid-term timber supply shortages by smoothing the fibre supply over time.

Mapping regional forest management units: a road-based framework in Southeastern Coastal Plain and Piedmont

Management practices are one of the most important factors affecting forest structure and function. Landowners in southern United States manage forests using appropriately sized areas, to meet management objectives that include economic return, sustainability, and esthetic enjoyment. Road networks spatially designate the socio-environmental elements for the forests, which represented and aggregated as forest management units. Road networks are widely used for managing forests by setting logging roads and firebreaks. We propose that common types of forest management are practiced in road-delineated units that can be determined by remote sensing satellite imagery coupled with crowd-sourced road network datasets. Satellite sensors do not always capture road-caused canopy openings, so it is difficult to delineate ecologically relevant units based only on satellite data. By integrating citizen-based road networks with the National Land Cover Database, we mapped road-delineated management units across the regional landscape and analyzed the size frequency distribution of management units. We found the road-delineated units smaller than 0.5 ha comprised 64% of the number of units, but only 0.98% of the total forest area. We also applied a statistical similarity test (Warren’s Index) to access the equivalency of road-delineated units with forest disturbances by simulating a serious of neutral landscapes. The outputs showed that the whole southeastern U.S. has the probability of road-delineated unit of 0.44 and production forests overlapped significantly with disturbance areas with an average probability of 0.50.

FEATURES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FOREST SECTOR IN A FOREST-POOR REGION (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE VORONEZH REGION)

The paper considers the directions of development of the region of the forestry sector of low-forest use on the example of the Voronezh region, highlights the factors and conditions for sustainable development and regional forest policy, principles, principles of compatibility of the compatibility of the use of forest resources in one area. It is emphasized that for sparsely wooded regions it is advisable to conduct economic activities within the framework of public-private partnerships associated with ensuring the protection and protection of forests, afforestation and reforestation, that is, activities related to the creation of a resource region. It is noted that the non-resource use of forests due to the disclosure of the recreational potential of the territory contributes not only to the development of the regional economy, but also satisfies the population's need for recreation, allowing to restore the lost working capacity. Forest plots from the lands of the forest fund of the Voronezh region in 2018-2020 were provided for permanent (unlimited) use, rent, free fixed-term use. The analysis showed an increase in the number of contracts for the implementation of recreational activities, construction, reconstruction, operation of linear objects, as well as hunting. With the aim of a balanced use of forest resources, taking into account the impact on the development of the regional economy, the criteria for choosing a priority direction of forest use were determined.

FOSTER—An R package for forest structure extrapolation

The uptake of technologies such as airborne laser scanning (ALS) and more recently digital aerial photogrammetry (DAP) enable the characterization of 3-dimensional (3D) forest structure. These forest structural attributes are widely applied in the development of modern enhanced forest inventories. As an alternative to extensive ALS or DAP based forest inventories, regional forest attribute maps can be built from relationships between ALS or DAP and wall-to-wall satellite data products. To date, a number of different approaches exist, with varying code implementations using different programming environments and tailored to specific needs. With the motivation for open, simple and modern software, we present FOSTER (Forest Structure Extrapolation in R), a versatile and computationally efficient framework for modeling and imputation of 3D forest attributes. FOSTER derives spectral trends in remote sensing time series, implements a structurally guided sampling approach to sample these often spatially auto correlated datasets, to then allow a modelling approach (currently k-NN imputation) to extrapolate these 3D forest structure measures. The k-NN imputation approach that FOSTER implements has a number of benefits over conventional regression based approaches including lower bias and reduced over fitting. This paper provides an overview of the general framework followed by a demonstration of the performance and outputs of FOSTER. Two ALS-derived variables, the 95th percentile of first returns height (elev_p95) and canopy cover above mean height (cover), were imputed over a research forest in British Columbia, Canada with relative RMSE of 18.5% and 11.4% and relative bias of -0.6% and 1.4% respectively. The processing sequence developed within FOSTER represents an innovative and versatile framework that should be useful to researchers and managers alike looking to make forest management decisions over entire forest estates.