scholarly journals Why Is Civil Conflict Path Dependent? A Cultural Explanation

Games ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Atin Basuchoudhary
Keyword(s):  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Formal Theory ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Cultural Learning ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Theoretical Reasoning ◽  
State Actors ◽  
Path Dependent

Empirical investigation suggests that conflict is path-dependent, i.e., current conflict leads to more conflict in the future. However, there is very little formal theory for why conflict path dependence exists. We propose a mathematical model to explore one possible pathway to explain the persistence of conflict once it starts. In this model, there are three types of cultures in two boundedly rational populations. The two populations are State Actors and Insurgents. The three cultures are Peaceable, Warring, or Bargainers. The distribution of these types is different in each population. Evolutionary dynamics determine which of these three cultures might predominate. Our simulations suggest that it is rational for people to learn to be warlike even in environments where State Actors are willing to give large side payments to “buy” peace to avoid bargaining failure. War can also be learned when State Actors and Insurgents are extremely patient and, therefore, potentially committed to Pareto improving peace deals. The outcomes of these simulations suggest that cultural learning can be a hitherto ignored explanation for why conflict is path dependent. If culture is indeed a possible cause for conflict, the best intentions of technocratic peacemakers trying to build frameworks for resource sharing and/or institutional building may fail, simply because such structures are not suited to local conditions. On the flip side, our model also provides theoretical reasoning for the observation that conflict is not a deterministic outcome of bargaining and commitment failures.

Path Dependence

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Hegmon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
General Level ◽  
Historical Contingency ◽  
Difficult Decision ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Historical Sequences ◽  
Lock In

Path dependence concepts, thus far, have seen little application in archaeology, but they have great potential. At a general level, these concepts provide tools for theorizing historical sequences, such as patterns of settlement on a landscape and divergent historical traditions. Potential applications include issues of historical contingency in the late Rio Grande, settlement in the Mesa Verde region, and divergent trajectories in the post-Chaco period. Specific concepts from path dependence theory, including lock-in and critical junctures, are illustrated by an analysis of the growth of Hohokam irrigation, which exhibited a path-dependent trajectory. As archaeological study of path dependence builds awareness of the importance of decision-making on the future, it contributes to difficult decision-making in today’s world.

scholarly journals Path-dependent institutions drive alternative stable states in conservation

2018 ◽  
Vol 116 (2) ◽  
pp. 689-694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward W. Tekwa ◽  
Eli P. Fenichel ◽  
Simon A. Levin ◽  
Malin L. Pinsky
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Resources ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Alternative Stable State ◽  
Important Challenge ◽  
Quantitative Analyses ◽  
Path Dependent

Understanding why some renewable resources are overharvested while others are conserved remains an important challenge. Most explanations focus on institutional or ecological differences among resources. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that conservation and overharvest can be alternative stable states within the same exclusive-resource management system because of path-dependent processes, including slow institutional adaptation. Surprisingly, this theory predicts that the alternative states of strong conservation or overharvest are most likely for resources that were previously thought to be easily conserved under optimal management or even open access. Quantitative analyses of harvest rates from 217 intensely managed fisheries supports the predictions. Fisheries’ harvest rates also showed transient dynamics characteristic of path dependence, as well as convergence to the alternative stable state after unexpected transitions. This statistical evidence for path dependence differs from previous empirical support that was based largely on case studies, experiments, and distributional analyses. Alternative stable states in conservation appear likely outcomes for many cooperatively managed renewable resources, which implies that achieving conservation outcomes hinges on harnessing existing policy tools to navigate transitions.

scholarly journals Re-orienting the paradigm: path dependence in FDI theory and the emerging multinationals

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Knoerich
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Multinational Enterprise ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Core ◽  
Emerging Multinationals ◽  
Path Dependent

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze how path dependence in the evolution of major theories of foreign direct investment (FDI) locked in a theoretical perspective of the multinational enterprise that focused on asset-exploitation. This perspective is challenged by recent contradicting observations of multinationals from China and other emerging economies. A decisive re-orientation of FDI theory is proposed as a way forward to resolve this tension. Design/methodology/approach Placing FDI theories into the context of FDI patterns prevailing at the time they were developed, Thomas Kuhn’s framework on the evolution of scientific knowledge is employed to track how the mainstream FDI theory emerged, went through a period of normal science and then approached a crisis of science in this field. Findings The evolution of FDI theory is strongly path-dependent, which made it difficult for theory to effectively incorporate new conceptual discoveries and empirical findings about the nature of FDI activity. Originality/value FDI theory would benefit from a full re-orientation to a demand-oriented perspective which places the pursuit of advantages, assets, resources, etc., at the core of the theory. Such a change is implicit in many recent theoretical advances and would assure theory is generalizable to all types of FDI.

Orientation and Path Dependence of Formability in the Stress- and the Extended Stress-Based Forming Limit Curves

2008 ◽  
Vol 130 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hari Manoj Simha ◽  
Kaan Inal ◽  
Michael J. Worswick
Keyword(s):  
Strain Path ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Forming Limit ◽  
Stress Space ◽  
Forming Limit Diagrams ◽  
Metall Trans ◽  
Strain Paths ◽  
Strain Path Changes ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Forming Limit Curves

This article analyzes the formability data sets for aluminum killed steel (Laukonis, J. V., and Ghosh, A. K., 1978, “Effects of Strain Path Changes on the Formability of Sheet Metals,” Metall. Trans. A., 9, pp. 1849–1856), for Al 2008-T4 (Graf, A., and Hosford, W., 1993, “Effect of Changing Strain Paths on Forming Limit Diagrams of Al 2008-T4,” Metall. Trans. A, 24A, pp. 2503–2512) and for Al 6111-T4 (Graf, A., and Hosford, W., 1994, “The Influence of Strain-Path Changes on Forming Limit Diagrams of Al 6111 T4,” Int. J. Mech. Sci., 36, pp. 897–910). These articles present strain-based forming limit curves (ϵFLCs) for both as-received and prestrained sheets. Using phenomenological yield functions, and assuming isotropic hardening, the ϵFLCs are transformed into principal stress space to obtain stress-based forming limit curves (σFLCs) and the principal stresses are transformed into effective stress and mean stress space to obtain the extended stress-based forming limit curves (XSFLCs). A definition of path dependence for the σFLC and XSFLC is proposed and used to classify the obtained limit curves as path dependent or independent. The path dependence of forming limit stresses is observed for some of the prestrain paths. Based on the results, a novel criterion that, with a knowledge of the forming limit stresses of the as-received material, can be used to predict whether the limit stresses are path dependent or independent for a given prestrain path is proposed. The results also suggest that kinematic hardening and transient hardening effects may explain the path dependence observed in some of the prestrain paths.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF PATH-DEPENDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY ON THE VALUE OF MATURE TECHNOLOGIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (01) ◽  
pp. 1850005
Author(s):  
LARS ALKAERSIG ◽  
KARIN BEUKEL ◽  
GIANCARLO LAUTO
Keyword(s):  
Path Dependence ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Patent Data ◽  
Technological Uncertainty ◽  
Technological Trajectories ◽  
Recent Advances ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Low Uncertainty

This paper examines whether technological advances benefit more from path-dependent or path-creating capabilities. Consistently with recent advances in the literature, we argue that multiple technological trajectories can coexist in a field; therefore, firms may contribute to technological development by recombining in novel ways the capabilities that are widespread in the field, or by building novel and rare capabilities. The paper also conceptualises how technological uncertainty affects the value of such capabilities. Using patent data from 1977 to 2007 for firms developing the hydrocracking technology, the paper finds that both rare and widespread capabilities are valuable to the invention process, thereby suggesting that both path-dependent and path-creating strategies are beneficial for technological development. The paper shows that uncertainty has an inverted U-shaped effect on invention value. In particular, under conditions of low uncertainty, path-dependent capabilities tend to be more valuable.

scholarly journals The role of path dependence in the development of US bankruptcy law, 1880–1938

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
BRADLEY A. HANSEN ◽  
MARY ESCHELBACH HANSEN
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bankruptcy Law ◽  
Dependent Process ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Path Dependent Process ◽  
Political Compromises

Abstract:We illustrate mechanisms that can give rise to path dependence in legislation. Specifically, we show how debtor-friendly bankruptcy law arose in the United States as a result of a path dependent process. The 1898 Bankruptcy Act was not regarded as debtor-friendly at the time of its enactment, but the enactment of the law gave rise to changes in interest groups, changes in beliefs about the purpose of bankruptcy law, and changes in the Democratic Party's position on bankruptcy that set the United States on a path to debtor-friendly bankruptcy law. An analysis of the path dependence of bankruptcy law produces an interpretation that is more consistent with the evidence than the conventional interpretation that debtor-friendliness in bankruptcy law began with political compromises to obtain the 1898 Bankruptcy Act.

scholarly journals FIRST-ORDER ASYMPTOTICS OF PATH-DEPENDENT DERIVATIVES IN MULTISCALE STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY ENVIRONMENT

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (03) ◽  
pp. 1850024 ◽  
Author(s):  
YURI F. SAPORITO
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Order Approximation ◽  
Asian Options ◽  
Order Condition ◽  
Closed Form Solutions ◽  
First Order ◽  
Itô Calculus ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
First Order Approximation

In this paper, we extend the first-order asymptotics analysis of Fouque et al. to general path-dependent financial derivatives using Dupire’s functional Itô calculus. The main conclusion is that the market group parameters calibrated to vanilla options can be used to price to the same order exotic, path-dependent derivatives as well. Under general conditions, the first-order condition is represented by a conditional expectation that could be numerically evaluated. Moreover, if the path-dependence is not too severe, we are able to find path-dependent closed-form solutions equivalent to the first-order approximation of path-independent options derived in Fouque et al. Additionally, we exemplify the results with Asian options and options on quadratic variation.

scholarly journals A Model of Path-Dependence in Decisions over Multiple Propositions

2004 ◽  
Vol 98 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRISTIAN LIST
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Propositional Logic ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Strategic Voting ◽  
Sequential Decision ◽  
Sequential Decisions ◽  
Sequential Decision Process ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient

I model sequential decisions over multiple interconnected propositions and investigate path-dependence in such decisions. The propositions and their interconnections are represented in propositional logic. A sequential decision process is path-dependent if its outcome depends on the order in which the propositions are considered. Assuming that earlier decisions constrain later ones, I prove three main results: First, certain rationality violations by the decision-making agent—individual or group—are necessary and sufficient for path-dependence. Second, under some conditions, path-dependence is unavoidable in decisions made by groups. Third, path-dependence makes decisions vulnerable to strategic agenda setting and strategic voting. I also discuss escape routes from path-dependence. My results are relevant to discussions on collective consistency and reason-based decision-making, focusing not only on outcomes, but also on underlying reasons, beliefs, and constraints.

scholarly journals The Roots of Intense Ethnic Conflict may not in fact be Ethnic: Categories, Communities and Path Dependence

2004 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOSEPH RUANE ◽  
JENNIFER TODD
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Conflict ◽  
Reproductive System ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Alternative Strategy ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Path Dependent

This article criticizes two theoretical approaches to ethnicity and ethnic conflict. One emphasizes the intense solidarity generated by the ethnic bond and explains this in terms of a deep, quasi-kin feeling. The other emphasizes the contingency and situatedness of ethnic feeling and the fluctuating character of ethnic “groupness”. We adopt an alternative strategy, locating ethnicity as one factor among many, which may form a path-dependent self-reproductive system generating communal opposition and ethnic conflict.

Path dependence in policies supporting smart specialisation strategies

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús M. Valdaliso ◽  
Edurne Magro ◽  
Mikel Navarro ◽  
Mari Jose Aranguren ◽  
James R. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Path Dependence ◽  
Basque Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
Smart Specialisation ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Degree Of Maturity ◽  
Political Agents ◽  
Dependent Processes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to apply the path dependence theoretical framework to STI policies that support research and innovation strategies for smart specialisation (RIS3). Design/methodology/approach – Review of the recent literature on the phases, sources of reinforcement and change mechanisms (layering, conversion, recombination, etc.) present in path-dependent processes, as well as the role played by mental frameworks, political agents and power relations; and its illustration and testing over 30 years of STI policy development in the Basque Country. Findings – How to operationalise the analysis of continuity and change of STI policies supporting RIS3 policies characterised by path dependence processes. Likewise, learnings from the analysis of Basque case regarding the types of challenges that European regions will face as they design their RIS3, according to their degree of maturity in STI policies. Originality/value – It is the first time that the recently developed tools for analysis of path-dependent processes are applied to the development of STI policies supporting RIS3 policies.

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