scholarly journals Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Headwaters of the Yangtze River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (14) ◽  
pp. 2506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junlong Liu ◽  
Jin Chen ◽  
Jijun Xu ◽  
Yuru Lin ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Test Method ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Runoff Depth

Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is of great importance for water resource management, sustainable water resource utilization, and sustainable development of society. In this study, hydrological and climatic data from hydrological and meteorological stations in the headwaters of the Yangtze River (YRHA) from 1966 to 2013 were used to quantitatively attribute the runoff change to the impacts of climate change and human activities separately. Firstly, the change trends in precipitation, runoff depth and potential evapotranspiration were analyzed by the Mann-Kendall test method. Three methods, secondly, including ordered clustering, Mann-Kendall and cumulative anomaly curve were adopted to detect the change points of runoff at Zhimenda hydrological station and partition the whole study period into two sub-periods at the change point (base and impacted periods). Then, the elasticity coefficient method based on the Budyko hypothesis was applied to calculate elasticity coefficients of runoff to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and land use/cover during the two periods, and to evaluate the contributions of climate change and human activities. Results indicated that during 1966–2013, runoff depth, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration all showed a significant increasing trend, with increasing rates of 7.26 mm decade−1, 18.725 mm decade−1 and 7.228 mm decade−1, respectively. One change point (2004) was detected for the annual runoff, and 1966–2003 and 2004–2013 were respectively identified as base and impacted periods. The results of elasticity coefficients showed that the runoff depth was most sensitive to the change of precipitation during the two periods. The relative contributions of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and parameter n to runoff changes were 99.7%, −6.08% and 3.88%, respectively. Furthermore, the coupled contribution rate of other factors was less than 2.5%. Generally, results indicated that precipitation is the main factor on the historical runoff changes in this basin.

scholarly journals Decomposition and Attribution Analysis of Runoff Alteration of the Dongting Lake in China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2729
Author(s):  
Yuyun Huang ◽  
Minghui Yu ◽  
Haoyong Tian ◽  
Yujiao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Dongting Lake ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Depth

The runoff process in the Dongting Lake has been influenced by climate change and human activities in recent decades. To manage the Dongting Lake efficiently and exploit water resources properly under the background of water shortage, it is desired to detect the factors of runoff change in the Dongting Lake. Hydro-meteorological data from 1961 to 2019 are analyzed to reveal the climate change and runoff alteration of the Dongting Lake comprehensively. Mutation test is used to detect the change points of runoff depth series, finding that 1984 and 2005 are change points and therefore 1961–1983, 1984–2004, and 2005–2019 are regarded as baseline period (BP), period 1 (P1), and period 2 (P2), respectively. Eight methods are used to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of human activities and climate change on runoff variation. It reveals that climate change especially precipitation change plays the dominant role (climate change makes runoff depth increase 70.14–121.51 mm, human activities make runoff depth decrease 51.98–103.35 mm) in runoff alteration in P1 while human activities play a prime role (account for 88.47–93.17%) in P2. Human activities such as reservoir construction, water consumption, and land-use (land-cover) change may be the main factors that influence the runoff in the Dongting Lake in P2. According to the sensitivity analysis, runoff in the Dongting Lake is more sensitive to climate change in P2 compared with that in P1, and no matter in P1 or P2, runoff is more sensitive to change in precipitation than the change in potential evapotranspiration. Combined with climate forecast, the results of sensitivity analysis can be used to estimate runoff change caused by climate change in the future.

scholarly journals Assessing the Influence of Compounding Factors to the Water Level Variation of Erhai Lake

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Huaxin Wu ◽  
Shengrui Wang ◽  
Tao Wu ◽  
Bo Yao ◽  
Zhaokui Ni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Erhai Lake ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and human activities cause lake water level (WL) fluctuations to exceed natural thresholds, with implications for the available water resources. Studies that explore WL change trends and the main driving forces that affect water level changes are essential for future lake water resource planning. This study uses the Mann–Kendall trend test method to explore the WL fluctuations trend and WL mutation in Erhai Lake (EL) during 1990–2019 and explore the main driving factors affecting water level changes, such as characteristic WL adjustments. We also use the principal component analysis to quantify the contribution of compound influencing factors to the water level change in different periods. The results showed that the WL rose at a rate of 47 mm/a during 1990–2019 but was influenced by the characteristic WL adjustment of EL in 2004 and the WL mutation in 2005. In 1990–2004, the WL showed a downtrend caused by the increase in water resource development and utilization intensity, and in 2005–2019, the WL showed an uptrend caused by the combined decrease in evaporation, outflow, and the increase in water supply for water conservancy projects. Additionally, the largest contributions of outflow to WL change were 19.34% and 21.61% in 1990–2019 and 1990–2004, respectively, while the largest contribution of cultivated area to WL change was 20.48% in 2005–2019, and it is worth noting that the largest contribution of climate change to WL change was 40.35% in 2013–2019. In the future, under the increase in outflow and evaporation and the interception of inflow, the WL will decline (Hurst exponent = 0.048). Therefore, planning for the protection and management of lakes should consider the impact of human activities, while also paying attention to the influence of climate change.

Changes in the flow regimes associated with climate change and human activities in the Yangtze River

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (9) ◽  
pp. 1415-1427
Author(s):  
Junxiang Cheng ◽  
Ligang Xu ◽  
Hongxiang Fan ◽  
Jiahu Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Flow Regimes ◽  
The Yangtze River

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Using Climate Elasticity Method and General Circulation Model (GCM) in the Buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 4968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moldir Rakhimova ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Sanim Bissenbayeva ◽  
Yerbolat Mukanov ◽  
Khusen Sh. Gafforov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Downstream Area

The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) was assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change were as follows—70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 °C/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from 0.50 to 0.61 °C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%) during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period. The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water resources and for ecological environment protection.

scholarly journals Relative Contribution of the Xiaolangdi Dam to Runoff Changes in the Lower Yellow River

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 521
Author(s):  
Qinghe Zhao ◽  
Shengyan Ding ◽  
Xiaoyu Ji ◽  
Zhendong Hong ◽  
Mengwen Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Dam Construction ◽  
Regulated Rivers ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Seasonal Runoff

Human activities are increasingly recognized as having a critical influence on hydrological processes under the warming of the climate, particularly for dam-regulated rivers. To ensure the sustainable management of water resources, it is important to evaluate how dam construction may affect surface runoff. In this study, using Mann–Kendall tests, the double mass curve method, and the Budyko-based elasticity method, the effects of climate change and human activities on annual and seasonal runoff were quantified for the Yellow River basin from 1961–2018; additionally, effects on runoff were assessed after the construction of the Xiaolangdi Dam (XLD, started operation in 2001) on the Yellow River. Both annual and seasonal runoff decreased over time (p < 0.01), due to the combined effects of climate change and human activities. Abrupt changes in annual, flood season, and non-flood season runoff occurred in 1986, 1989, and 1986, respectively. However, no abrupt changes were seen after the construction of the XLD. Human activities accounted for much of the reduction in runoff, approximately 75–72% annually, 81–86% for the flood season, and 86–90% for the non-flood season. Climate change approximately accounted for the remainder: 18–25% (annually), 14–19% (flood season), and 10–14% (non-flood season). The XLD construction mitigated runoff increases induced by heightened precipitation and reduced potential evapotranspiration during the post-dam period; the XLD accounted for approximately 52% of the runoff reduction both annually and in the non-flood season, and accounted for approximately −32% of the runoff increase in the flood season. In conclusion, this study provides a basic understanding of how dam construction contributes to runoff changes in the context of climate change; this information will be beneficial for the sustainable management of water resources in regulated rivers.

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