scholarly journals Testing a Comprehensive Volcanic Risk Assessment of Tenerife by Volcanic Hazard Simulations and Social Vulnerability Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiqiang Liu ◽  
Long Li ◽  
Longqian Chen ◽  
Mingxin Wen ◽  
Jia Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Social Vulnerability ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Volcanic Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The North ◽  
Volcanic Risk Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Volcanic activity remains highly detrimental to populations, property and activities in the range of its products. In order to reduce the impact of volcanic processes and products, it is critically important to conduct comprehensive volcanic risk assessments on volcanically active areas. This study tests a volcanic risk assessment methodology based on numerical simulations of volcanic hazards and quantitative analysis of social vulnerability in the Spanish island of Tenerife, a well-known tourist destination. We first simulated the most likely volcanic hazards in the two eruptive scenarios using the Volcanic Risk Information System (VORIS) tool and then evaluated the vulnerability using a total of 19 socio-economic indicators within the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) framework by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy method. Our results show good agreement with previous assessments. In two eruptive scenarios, the north and northwest of the island were more exposed to volcanic hazards, and the east registered the highest vulnerability. Overall, the northern municipalities showed the highest volcanic risk in two scenarios. Our test indicates that disaster risk varies greatly across the island, and that risk reduction strategies should be prioritized on the north areas. While refinements to the model will produce more accurate results, the outputs will still be beneficial to the local authorities when designing policies for volcanic risk reduction policies in Tenerife. This study tests a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment for Tenerife, but it also provides a framework that is applicable to other regions threatened by volcanic hazards.

scholarly journals Aggregated Risk Assessment and Survey for Risk Reduction in Oil Terminals

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12169
Author(s):  
Robertas Alzbutas ◽  
Mindaugas Vaisnoras ◽  
Inga Saruniene ◽  
Ricardas Krikstolaitis ◽  
Mindaugas Valincius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Risk Aggregation ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
The Impact

One of the goals of any oil terminal is to make a business while avoiding hazardous events and harmful effects for both humans and the environment. This can be achieved by creating a safe working place as well as by performing safe and acceptable activities regarding the impact on surrounding objects, including residential and industrial areas. The aim of the hazard analysis of the oil terminal is to assess the risks related to hazardous events or phenomena and to evaluate whether the assessed risks are acceptable. The hazard analysis and assessment of risk are also used for risk reduction while examining and limiting hazardous scenarios that, for instance, involve the loss-of-containment of flammable or combustible material. In this paper, the authors aim to contribute to risk research by providing a comprehensive methodology of risk assessment for oil terminals with case study results and discussion on features of the methodology, risk aggregation, its applicability for risk reduction, and industrial interests. The performed study considered the “Klaipedos Nafta AB” (an operator of the Klaipeda Oil Terminal, Lithuania) case study regarding hazardous materials that might be released from various tanks, devices, and associated pipelines. The performed quantitative risk assessment has enabled the determination of the probability regarding whether releases would ignite and, for instance, cause explosion. In the case study, the estimate of probability, i.e., the frequency, and the possible consequences of the hazardous events were evaluated, and both mitigation and risk reduction measures were also considered.

scholarly journals A Novel Method for Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Strategies: Explanation of ICPR FloRiAn GIS-Tool and Its First Application to the Rhine River Basin

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Schmid-Breton ◽  
Gesa Kutschera ◽  
Ton Botterhuis ◽  
The ICPR Expert Group ‘Flood Risk Analysis’ (EG HIRI)
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Culture Heritage ◽  
Flood Risk Reduction ◽  
The Impact

To determine the effects of measures on flood risk, the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR), supported by the engineering consultant HKV has developed a method and a GIS-tool named “ICPR FloRiAn (Flood Risk Analysis)”, which enables the broad-scale assessment of the effectiveness of flood risk management measures on the Rhine, but could be also applied to other rivers. The tool uses flood hazard maps and associated recurrence periods for an overall damage and risk assessment for four receptors: human health, environment, culture heritage, and economic activity. For each receptor, a method is designed to calculate the impact of flooding and the effect of measures. The tool consists of three interacting modules: damage assessment, risk assessment, and measures. Calculations using this tool show that the flood risk reduction target defined in the Action Plan on Floods of the ICPR in 1998 could be achieved with the measures already taken and those planned until 2030. Upon request, the ICPR will provide this tool and the method to other river basin organizations, national authorities, or scientific institutions. This article presents the method and GIS-tool developed by the ICPR as well as first calculation results.

scholarly journals A New Inclusive Volcanic Risk Ranking, Part 1: Methodology

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amiel Nieto-Torres ◽  
Leticia Freitas Guimarães ◽  
Costanza Bonadonna ◽  
Corine Frischknecht
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Volcanic Field ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Volcanic Risk ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Risk Ranking ◽  
Mexican Volcanoes ◽  
The Impact

The ever-increasing population living near active volcanoes highlights the need for the implementation of effective risk reduction measures to save lives and reduce the impact of volcanic unrest and eruptions. To help identify volcanic systems associated with potential high risk and prioritize risk reduction strategies, we introduce a new Volcanic Risk Ranking (VRR) methodology that integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as factors that increase risk, and resilience as a factor that reduces risk. Here we present a description of the methodology using Mexican volcanoes as a case study, while a regional application to Latin American volcanoes is presented in a companion paper (Guimarães et al., submitted). With respect to existing strategies, the proposed VRR methodology expands the parameters associated with hazard and exposure and includes the analysis of 4 dimensions of vulnerability (physical, systemic, social, economic) and of resilience. In particular, we propose 41 parameters to be analyzed, including 9 hazard parameters, 9 exposure parameters, 10 vulnerability parameters and 13 resilience parameters. Since the number of parameters evaluated for each risk factor is different, they are normalized to have the same weight based on dedicated sensitivity analyses. In order to best illustrate the methodology, the proposed VRR is here applied to 13 Mexican volcanoes and compared with other approaches. We found that the volcanoes associated with the highest combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (3-factor VRR) for this geographic area are Tacaná and El Chichón regardless of the analyzed time window of eruption occurrence (i.e., <1 and <10 ka). Nonetheless, the volcanoes with eruption <1 ka that require the most urgent actions as associated with no or few resilience measures in place are Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field and San Martín Tuxtla (4-factor VRR); the top volcanoes in the 4-factor VRR with eruption <10 ka are Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field and Las Cumbres.

Volcanic Risk Assessment

2015 ◽  
pp. 1215-1231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willy Aspinall ◽  
Russell Blong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Volcanic Risk ◽  
Volcanic Risk Assessment

Fuzzy hierarchy analytic method of enterprise supply chain financial risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Huali Deng ◽  
Aoduo Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Supply chain finance refers to one or more companies upstream and downstream of the industrial supply chain. According to the core company of each node, based on actual transactions, use customized and standardized financing transaction methods to control capital flows or control assets. The right to provide comprehensive financial products and services between supply chain nodes. This article only needs to introduce the financial risk analysis of the enterprise supply chain based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. This paper proposes a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods to assess financial risks, and designs a financial risk assessment system by constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix. It also proposes a comprehensive judgment of the financial risk assessment method. The impact of various risk factors on financial services provides a basis for risk prevention. The experimental results of this paper show that the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process evaluation method is relatively objective and can effectively evaluate the financial risks of the enterprise supply chain. From the weight analysis, it can be concluded that the technical risk weight value is 0.47, which accounts for the largest proportion and is the most important risk.

scholarly journals Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 693-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Donovan ◽  
J. Richard Eiser ◽  
R. Stephen J. Sparks
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Expert Opinion ◽  
Volcanic Risk ◽  
Volcanic Risk Assessment

scholarly journals VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.A. Valentine ◽  
F.V. Perry ◽  
S. Dartevelle
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Volcanic Risk ◽  
Volcanic Risk Assessment

Pipeline Risk Assessment Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sirous F. Yasseri ◽  
R. B. Mahani
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Risk Reduction Measure ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Deciding on the effectiveness of risk reduction measures is a common problem that involves tradeoffs among multiple different and generally qualitative criteria. Often risk mitigation measures implemented for pipeline risk reduction cannot be easily quantified, but it can be ranked. Hence, there is a need to identify which risk reduction measure is the most effective amongst the competing options. This paper uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach to select optimal solutions that best satisfies all of the decision maker’s requirements. This paper presents the development of an AHP model and the derivation of a quality index. The model is used for a hypothetical case study of various remediation works to an existing pipeline. The advantages of using such a technique are also discussed. This proposed model of risk assessment is useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, as well as for modification and changes of use for an existing pipeline.

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