PFDA-FMEA-VSM Application for Outsourcing Risk Analysis

Manufacturing corporations has the acceptance of the Outsourcing Process (OP) to improve industrial activities as well as to archive the revenue objectives, and with this, Risk Analysis (RA) tools are constantly used to assure expected results. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is one of preferred RA tools, moreover, it is proven that FMEA adds uncertainty because of the human participation at the RA, afterward it is demonstrated that Pythagorean Fuzzy Dimensional Analysis – FMEA – Value Stream Mapping (PFDA-FMEA-VSM) method removes the uncertainty in RA, likewise it aids to the stakeholders for decision making, giving more advantages improving the use of the resources on the project. This document exhibits a real case scenario in a manufacturing firm applying PFDA-FMEA-VSM method adapted for manufacturing OP. The application of PFDA-FMEA-VSM shows solid RA results, removing the human intervention uncertainty added to the risk ranking, gives advantages to the stakeholders for visualize the main risks in detailed diagram, as well as make easier to take better decisions on where to apply resources and mitigate risks during OP.

Optimized Inspection and Integrity Assessment of Well Conductors for Life Extension Strategic Planning

Assuring integrity of offshore well Conductor is one of the challenges in the aged giant offshore fields operating with 1500+ wells. Such fields should have a robust and efficient integrity management system for inspection and assessment of well conductors through the well life cycle. Offshore well Conductors form the secondary load-bearing element in a well, primary being the surface casing. A practical approach in assessing the structural integrity of the well conductor is proposed in this paper. Wells were classifying into five subgroups; optimized Inspection and Integrity Assessment methods used to establish the structural integrity of conductors; which were evaluated and validated by a 3rd part consultant. The assessment results indicate how over-conservative assumptions in engineering assessment may mislead operators to categorize wells into higher risk. Assessment was performed utilizing various modeling software. Reliability based approach was adopted to accommodate uncertainties in data utilizing appropriate engineering judgement to tackle data gaps. Average thickness measured at discrete elevations was compared with the calculated minimum required thickness (MRT) to assess the structural integrity status of conductors. This approach helped in the decision making and planning for risk mitigation repairs. The results of optimized inspection techniques and structural assessment methodology lead to establishment of clear pattern for critical well conductors and applied to the groups to decide on maintenance strategy. The conductor wall thickness data measured from automated thickness measurement technique is matching with the measured data from manual thickness measurements. The average wall thickness at each elevation, obtained from the raw automated thickness measurement technique data to be used for assessment of the conductor. After building good confidence in the mode of failure the results indicated that manual thickness measurement technique is sufficient to assess the structural integrity of the conductors. The consultant has performed parametric studies to validate the Minimum Required Thickness (MRT) for the most onerous well in the group; by modelling the boundary conditions of conductor span between the guides, the critical water depth, well depth etc. Sensitivity studies were performed considering the environmental loading due to wind, wave, current; vortex induced vibrations, cement height behind the pipes etc. From the new findings the integrity status of the current wells risk ranking will be reviewed and if the average measured thickness is greater than the MRT then a repair program is no more required. The resource utilization was optimized based on the final outcome of the exercise. A procedure based optimized inspection techniques and structural integrity assessments to the group the well conductors resulted in the revision of risk ranking of wells, efficient maintenance planning and achieve high-cost optimization for its life extension. The outcome of the consultancy study will also substantiate our current method of conductor assessment and decision for repair based on risk-based approach. Based on the learnings this paper will be focusing on utilizing optimal inspection and assessment approach.

Damage Degree analysis of storage failure modes for plastic encapsulated microelectronic devices

After long-term storage, plastic sealing devices must have good performance when installed on the whole machine. Identifying the risk of failure mode and taking preventive measures before failure can effectively improve storage reliability. To ensure the quality of military products, this paper studies the storage failure modes of plastic sealed micro-electronic devices, and uses the method of FMECA to calculate the damage degree of each failure mode and determine the key failure modes. The case analysis shows that the damage degree of failure mode is ranked as external lead corrosion, aging of packaging material, chip corrosion and bonding ball corrosion. The evaluation result accords with the actual situation of the method. The improved FMECA model can better deal with the relative importance of risk factors, improve the accuracy of risk ranking, and quantify risks more reasonably.

Safety and risk analysis at railway crossings of north-south Addis Ababa light rail

Purpose Railway-level crossings (RLCs) are the point of intersection between rail and road users and are therefore hotpots of road-rail user conflict and catastrophic collisions. The purpose of this study is to assess the risks associated with RLCs and suggest probable reduction measures. Through questionnaires and visual inspection, the authors identify the safety risks, hazards and hazardous events at some railway crossing of Addis Ababa light rail transit (AA-LRT) north-south (N-S) route. The identified risky events are then categorized based on As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle and generic risk ranking matrix. The authors then examine existing safety management measures at railway crossing and assess the need for additional safety management. Five major crossings on the 16.9 km (10.5 mi) N-S line, starting from Menelik II Square to Kality, were considered for the study. This study is carried out by data collection from about 145 stakeholders and the application of statistical data and risk analysis methods. The major findings of this study and the recommendations for improvement are suggested. Design/methodology/approach The research followed a case study approach. Through questionnaires and visual inspection, the authors identify the safety risks, hazards and hazardous events at some railway crossing of AA-LRT N-S route. The identified risky events are then categorized based on ALARP principle and generic risk ranking matrix. Collected data was then analyzed using SPSS to deduce relationships. Findings The study findings reveal human factors as the greatest cause of accidents, injury or death. About 22% of hazards identified by category are human factors, whereas 20% are because of technical problems. Intolerable risks stand at 42%, whereas the tolerable risks are at 36% according to risk classification results as per the ALARP model. Because the process of risk management is a long-term cycle, its importance should not be missed at any time. Research limitations/implications Because of design considerations of RLCs and the difference in generalized human behaviors for people of a given region, the results are limited to AA-LRT RLCs. This study opens a discourse for detailed evaluations, qualitative and quantitative analysis into the categorized identified hazards. There is also room for additional research into the performance of RLCs aimed at formulating standard necessary features that should be included on RLCs for proper risk control especially in emerging economies. Originality/value The research paper is original and has not been submitted for consideration to other journals.

A New Inclusive Volcanic Risk Ranking, Part 2: Application to Latin America

Volcanic Risk Ranking (VRR) methods have been developed worldwide as a way to hierarchize the volcanic systems and help target strategies for risk reduction. Such hierarchization is especially important in areas characterized by a large number of active volcanoes but limited resources. This is the case of Latin America, where large populations live nearby almost 300 active volcanoes. Here we assess the volcanic systems in Latin America with at least one eruption in the last 1,000 years based on the VRR strategy presented in a companion paper that accounts for the 4 main risk factors: hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience. Our results reveal that, among the 123 volcanoes analyzed, Santiaguito, Tacaná and Fuego are those with the highest score in the 3-factor VRR (H×E×V), while Ecuador, Marchena and Santiago are among the systems with the lowest score. Bárcena and Pinta score zero as there is no exposure. Although vulnerability significantly contributes to the VRR score, hazard and exposure are the main factors that define the risk of Latin American volcanic systems in the proposed 3-factor VRR, while resilience contributes to its reduction in the proposed 4-factor VRR strategy. In this regard, Arenal, Copahue, Villarrica, Ubinas, Irazú and Poás are the systems with the highest number of risk reduction strategies in place. Atitlán, Almolonga and Tecuamburro are the volcanic systems with the highest score in the 4-factor VRR [(H×E×V)/(Res+1)], combining moderate hazard, exposure and vulnerability and low resilience; Bárcena, Pinta, Ecuador, Marchena and Santiago receive the lowest scores due to no or low exposure. Santiaguito, Tacaná, El Chichón and Ceboruco are characterized by high scores in the 3-factor VRR and also stand out as some of those with few risk reduction strategies implemented; thus they have intermediate to high scores also in the 4-factor VRR. Recognizing that hazard is difficult to mitigate and reducing exposure may depend on hardly feasible relocation of infrastructure and already established communities, we emphasize that measures to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience should be promoted (e.g., creating redundancy/accessibility to infrastructure, carrying out risk assessment studies, implementing early warning systems, developing emergency plans and promoting educational activities).

Macroseismic risk classification of historical constructions: the LEXSIS approach

The present paper deals with the elaboration of a methodology to assess the macro-seismic risk of monumental historical buildings, representing a fundamental part of the European cultural assets. Monumental buildings typically arise from a very complex constructive and morphological evolution process characterised by modifications occurred over the centuries. Therefore, they are usually heterogeneous buildings similar to 'structural aggregates' rather than single constructions and characterised by a structural behaviour depending on the mutual interaction of different structural units. An accurate knowledge process can allow the determination of structural units within the complex: such units can be therefore analysed using a specific evaluation form conceived to provide a 'risk ranking' of the different portions constituting the aggregate and accounting for vulnerability, exposure and seismic hazard parameters. The proposed methodology exploits what is already used to quickly determine structural features and eventual damages in the post-earthquake phase for ordinary buildings, introducing specific aspects typical of historical-cultural heritage requiring attention. According to the results achieved, retrofit interventions or deepen investigations can be planned for units provided by a higher position in the risk scale, optimising and rationally planning the use of available economic and time resources. In the present work, the proposed methodology is applied to the monumental complex of the Certosa di Calci, Pisa (Italy).

Assessment of the risks of sustainable development of the Regions of Belarus

The relevance of the topic is due to the need to anticipate the risks of sustainable development of the regions of Belarus. Purpose: risk assessment of the sustainable development of the regions of Belarus. Methods – analysis, synthesis, comparisons, rankings, tabular, graphical. Results of work: study of comparative methodological approaches to assessing the risks of sustainable development of regions. Adaptation of methods of regional risk ranking to the plane of their quantitative measurement. Development of a methodological approach to ranking potential threats to spatial development based on average values. Identification of the most significant types of risks that limit the possibilities of sustainable development of territories. Conclusions: the analysis of the literature sources revealed the advantages and disadvantages of methodological approaches to assessing the risks of sustainable development of regions. Structuring and quantitative assessment of the risks of sustainable development of the territories of Belarus allowed us to solve two main tasks: to identify the most problematic areas of development of the regions and rank them based on the identified factors. A register of risks of sustainable spatial development has been compiled, which allows specifying the directions of their prevention in the context of the studied territories.