scholarly journals Forecasting Commodity Prices Using the Term Structure

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 585
Author(s):  
Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa ◽  
Mahmoud Qadan
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Changes Over Time

The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution in the prices of commodities often used in as raw materials. We consider the monthly prices of nine commodities for more than 30 years. Our findings, confirmed by several parametric and non-parametric tests, are robust and indicate that the ability to forecast future performance changes over time. Specifically, between 1986 and the early 2000s the yield curve was quite successful in forecasting monthly changes in commodity prices, but that success diminished in the period following. One possible explanation for this outcome is the increased flow of capital into the commodity market resulting in stronger correlations with the equity markets and a breakdown of the obvious relationship between commodities and business cycle. Our findings are important for asset pricing, commodity traders and policy makers.

scholarly journals Yield curve dynamics with macroeconomic factors in Iberian economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-203
Author(s):  
Isabel Maldonado ◽  
Carlos Pinho
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Future Evolution

Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the bidirectional relation between the term structure of interest rates components and macroeconomic factors. Using a factor augmented vector autoregressive model, impulse response functions and forecasting error variance decompositions we find evidence of a bidirectional relation between yield curve factors and the macroeconomic factors, with increased relevance of yield factors over it with increased forecasting horizons. The study was conduct for the two Iberian countries using information of public debt interest rates of Spain and Portugal and macroeconomic factors extracted from a set of macroeconomic variables, including indicators of activity, prices and confidence. Results show that the inclusion of confidence and macroeconomic factors in the analysis of the relationship between macroeconomics and interest rate structure is extremely relevant. The results obtained allow us to conclude that there is a strong impact of changes in macroeconomic factors on the term structure of interest rates, as well as a significant impact factors of the term structure in the future evolution of macroeconomic factors.

scholarly journals Testing the Performance of Cubic Splines and Nelson-Siegel Model for Estimating the Zero-coupon Yield Curve

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Lorenčič
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Real World ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Cubic Splines ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Understanding the relationship between interest rates and term to maturity of securities is a prerequisite for developing financial theory and evaluating whether it holds up in the real world; therefore, such an understanding lies at the heart of monetary and financial economics. Accurately fitting the term structure of interest rates is the backbone of a smoothly functioning financial market, which is why the testing of various models for estimating and predicting the term structure of interest rates is an important topic in finance that has received considerable attention for many decades. In this paper, we empirically contrast the performance of cubic splines and the Nelson-Siegel model by estimating the zero-coupon yields of Austrian government bonds. The main conclusion that can be drawn from the results of the calculations is that the Nelson-Siegel model outperforms cubic splines at the short end of the yield curve (up to 2 years), whereas for medium-term maturities (2 to 10 years) the fitting performance of both models is comparable.

The Economics of Commodities and Commodity Markets

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Ielpo
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

This chapter covers the economic fundamentals of commodity markets (i.e., what shapes the evolution of the price of raw materials) in three steps. First, it covers the theories explaining why the futures curve can be upward or downward sloping, an essential element for commodity producing companies. The evolution of inventories and hedging pressures are the two dominant sources of explanation. Second, the chapter reviews the fundamentals of commodity spot prices: technologies, supply, demand, and speculation. Production costs draw the long-term evolution of prices, but demand and supply shocks can trigger substantial variations in commodity prices. Third, the chapter presents how commodity prices interact with the business cycle. Commodities are influenced by the world activity but can also have a material impact on it.

scholarly journals Commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez ◽  
Amalia Morales-Zumaquero
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Producer Prices ◽  
Pass Through

AbstractThis paper analyses the commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain for the global commodity price index and the indices of its main categories (i.e., agricultural raw materials, food and beverages, energy and metals) in the world, advanced and emerging economies. To do so, the study considers country-by-country vector autoregression models and pool the results by taking weighted means for 18 advanced economies and 19 emerging countries, as well as for the world (defined as the sum of advanced and emerging economies). The results show the following: (i) there is evidence in favour of partial pass-through from commodity prices to producer prices, although the evidence for the pass-through to consumer prices is less evident; (ii) the pass-through in the world seems to be led by both advanced and emerging countries for producer prices and only by advanced economies for consumer prices; (iii) higher prices in the four categories (agricultural raw materials only in the short-run) induce significant higher producer prices in almost all cases, with shocks in the prices of energy and metals showing the largest effects; and (iv) energy prices explain the highest variability of producer and consumer prices.

The nineteenth-century US whaling industry: Where is the risk premium? New materials facilitate updated view

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 344-363
Author(s):  
Barbara L. Coffey
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Financial Returns ◽  
New Materials ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Whaling Industry ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Printed Materials

Materials that were born digital, and printed materials that have been digitized, have aided an updated examination of nineteenth-century US whaling voyages’ financial returns. Items included the American Offshore Whaling Voyages dataset from whalinghistory.org , The Whalemen’s Shipping List and Merchant’s Transcript, a congressman’s speech and a state’s census reports. These works and others, with analysis, showed that for the 11,257 analysable voyages ending in the 1800s, the mean return was 4.7% and 4.6% for whaling and US government bonds, respectively. Ideally, this work will place the nineteenth-century US whaling industry returns in context of other investments.

scholarly journals Carbon pricing under uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederick van der Ploeg
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Abatement Cost ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Carbon Pricing ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractEconomists have adopted the Pigouvian approach to climate policy, which sets the carbon price to the social cost of carbon. We adjust this carbon price for macroeconomic uncertainty and disasters by deriving the risk-adjusted discount rate. We highlight ethics- versus market-based calibrations and discuss the effects of a falling term structure of the discount rate. Given the wide range of estimates used for marginal damages and the discount rate, it is unsurprising that negotiators and policy makers have rejected the Pigouvian approach and adopted a more pragmatic approach based on a temperature cap. The corresponding cap on cumulative emissions is lower if risk tolerance and temperature sensitivity are more uncertain. The carbon price then grows much faster than under the Pigouvian approach and discuss how this rate of growth is adjusted by economic and abatement cost risks. We then analyse how policy uncertainty and technological breakthrough can lead to the risk of stranded assets. Finally, we discuss various obstacles to successful carbon pricing.

A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields

2021 ◽  
pp. 056943452098827
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
State Theory ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds

Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields not only substantiate Keynes’s view that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy. This article relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Investors’ psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank’s monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. JEL classifications: E12; E40; E43; E50; E58; E60; F30; G10; G12; H62; H63

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