scholarly journals Modeling Urban Encroachment on the Agricultural Land of the Eastern Nile Delta Using Remote Sensing and a GIS-Based Markov Chain Model

Land ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelsee Bratley ◽  
Eman Ghoneim
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Agricultural Lands ◽  
Area At Risk

Historically, the Nile Delta has played an integral part in Egyptian civilization, as its fertile soils have been cultivated for centuries. The region offers a lush oasis among the expansive arid climate of Northern Africa; however, in recent decades, many anthropogenic changes to the environment have jeopardized Egypt’s agricultural productivity. Political instability and lack of sufficient regulations regarding urban growth and encroachment have put agricultural land in the area at risk. Advanced geospatial techniques were used to assess the rate at which urban areas are increasing within the region. A hybrid classification of Landsat satellite imagery for the eastern sector of the Nile Delta, between the years 1988 and 2017, was conducted to map major land-use and land-cover (LULC) classes. The statistical change analysis revealed that urban areas increased by 222.5% over the study period (29 years). Results indicated that urban areas are encroaching mainly on established agricultural lands within the Nile Delta. Most of the change has occurred within the past nine years, where approximately 235.60 km2 of the cultivated lands were transitioned to urban. Nonetheless, at the eastern delta flank, which is bordered by desert, analysis indicated that agricultural lands have experienced a considerable growth throughout the study period due to a major desert reclamation effort. Areas most at risk from future urban expansion were identified. A simulation of future urban expansion, using a Markov Chain algorithm, indicated that the extent to which urban area is simulated to grow in the region is 16.67% (277.3 km2) and 37.82% (843 km2) by the year 2026, and 2050, respectively. The methods used in this study are useful in assessing the rate of urban encroachment on agricultural lands and can be applied to similar at-risk areas in the regions if appropriate site-specific modifications are considered.

scholarly journals AGRICULTURAL LAND CHANGE DETECTING AND FORECASTING USING COMBINATION OF FEEDFORWARD MULTILAYER NEURAL NETWORK, CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND MARKOV CHAIN MODELS

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W18 ◽  
pp. 153-158
Author(s):  
A. Babaeian Diva ◽  
B. Bigdeli ◽  
P. Pahlavani
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Landsat Satellite

Abstract. This paper proposed a methodology for finding changes in agricultural land of Tehran during past years and simulating these changes for future years. The proposed method utilized the spatial GIS-based techniques and Landsat satellite imagery to predict agricultural land map for the future of Tehran. Therefore, a method for finding and predicting changes based on combining the feedforward multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), cellular automata (CA), and Markov chain model were applied. In this regard, the Landsat images of 2002, 2008, and 2014 were classified by a binary support vector machine classifier into two classes of agricultural and non-agricultural. Then, the potential transition maps were generated by the neural network MLP and extensible areas were obtained by the Markov chain model. Finally, the results of these two steps were combined with the MOLA method and the 2020 and 2025 agricultural maps were predicted. The proposed method obtained the Kappa factor of 89.92% that indicates the high ability of the neural network and the CA–Markov for finding the changes and prediction in the city of Tehran.

scholarly journals Dramatic Loss of Agricultural Land Due to Urban Expansion Threatens Food Security in the Nile Delta, Egypt

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taher M. Radwan ◽  
G. Alan Blackburn ◽  
J. Duncan Whyatt ◽  
Peter M. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Alternative Future

Egypt has one of the largest and fastest growing populations in the world. However, nearly 96% of the total land area is uninhabited desert and 96% of the population is concentrated around the River Nile valley and the Delta. This unbalanced distribution and dramatically rising population have caused severe socio-economic problems. In this research, 24 land use/land cover (LULC) maps from 1992 to 2015 were used to monitor LULC changes in the Nile Delta and quantify the rates and types of LULC transitions. The results show that 74,600 hectares of fertile agricultural land in the Nile Delta (Old Lands) was lost to urban expansion over the 24 year period at an average rate of 3,108 ha year-1, whilst 206,100 hectares of bare land was converted to agricultural land (New Lands) at an average rate of 8,588 ha year-1. A Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) integrated model was used to simulate future alternative LULC change scenarios. Under a Business as Usual scenario, 87,000 hectares of land transitioned from agricultural land to urban areas by 2030, posing a threat to the agricultural sector sustainability and food security in Egypt. Three alternative future scenarios were developed to promote urban development elsewhere, hence, with potential to preserve the fertile soils of the Nile Delta. A scenario which permitted urban expansion into the desert only preserved the largest amount of agricultural land in the Nile Delta. However, a scenario that encouraged urban expansion into the desert and adjacent to areas of existing high population density resulted in almost the same area of agricultural land being preserved. The alternative future scenarios are valuable for supporting policy development and planning decisions in Egypt and demonstrating that continued urban development is possible while minimising the threats to environmental sustainability and national food security.

scholarly journals Unplanned Urbanization and Agricultural Land Degradation in Baghdad City from 2003 to 2017

2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abbas Kadhim ◽  
Laith Zaid Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Agricultural Lands ◽  
Legal Rules ◽  
The City

Several problems have emerged as a result of urban expansion or the connection of urban areas with rural areas. This process has led to the urbanization of rural areas, and to have overlapping edges and margins of areas, which were outside the basic design of the city. Accordingly, the present research assumes that the accelerating growth of Baghdad population has contributed significantly to the process of unplanned urbanization. Thus, the study aims to examine the factors that have led to an increase of urban sprawl at the expense of the agricultural land. The study has thus adopted the descriptive, analytical, and historical approaches relying on the simple linear regression method to predict the phenomenon of urban expansion and its impact on the agricultural land. It has also included illustrative maps used in the preparation of geographic information technology (GIS).The study has concluded that the events of Iraq after 2003, the absence of legal rules, weak legislation, and the successive large immigrations from the countryside to the city have all led directly to a great increase in the process of housing expansion at the expense of agricultural lands. The research recommended the necessity of finding final solutions to the problem of encroachment on agricultural lands, establishing new and low-cost urban housing with full facilities and services, simplifying the procedures of building  licensing,  and reducing fees.

scholarly journals Application of Markov Chain Model and ArcGIS in Land Use Projection of Ala River Catchment, Akure, Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-38
Author(s):  
P.A. Adegbola ◽  
J.R. Adewumi ◽  
O.A. Obiora-Okeke
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Efficiency Index ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Negative Consequences

Increase land use change is one of the consequences of rapid population growth of cities in developing countries with its negative consequences on the environment. This study generates previous and present land use of Ala watershed and project the future land use using Markov chain model and ArcGIS software (version 10.2.1). Landsat 7, Enhanced Thematic mapper plus (ETM+) image and Landsat 8 operational land imager (OLI) with path 190 and row 2 used to generate land use (LU) and land cover (LC) images for the years 2000, 2010 and 2019. Six LU/LC classes were considered as follows: developed area (DA), open soil (OS), grass surface (GS), light forest (LF), wetland (WL) and hard rock (HR). Markov chain analysis was used in predicting LU/LC types in the watershed for the years 2029 and 2039. The veracity of the model was tested with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NSE) and Percent Bias methods. The model results show that the study area is growing rapidly particularly in the recent time. This urban expansion results in significant decrease of WL coverage areas and the significant increase of DA. This implies reduction in the available land for dry season farming and incessant flood occurrence. Keywords: Land cover, land use change, Markov chain, ArcGIS, watershed, urbanization

An Efficient Markov Chain Model for the Simulation of Heterogeneous Soil Structure

2004 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keijan Wu ◽  
Naoise Nunan ◽  
John W. Crawford ◽  
Iain M. Young ◽  
Karl Ritz
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Soil Structure ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Heterogeneous Soil

Data Mining Technique Applied To DNA Sequencing

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
R. Jamuna
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Dna Methylation ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Human Genome ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Cpg Islands ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
The Given

CpG islands (CGIs) play a vital role in genome analysis as genomic markers.  Identification of the CpG pair has contributed not only to the prediction of promoters but also to the understanding of the epigenetic causes of cancer. In the human genome [1] wherever the dinucleotides CG occurs the C nucleotide (cytosine) undergoes chemical modifications. There is a relatively high probability of this modification that mutates C into a T. For biologically important reasons the mutation modification process is suppressed in short stretches of the genome, such as ‘start’ regions. In these regions [2] predominant CpG dinucleotides are found than elsewhere. Such regions are called CpG islands. DNA methylation is an effective means by which gene expression is silenced. In normal cells, DNA methylation functions to prevent the expression of imprinted and inactive X chromosome genes. In cancerous cells, DNA methylation inactivates tumor-suppressor genes, as well as DNA repair genes, can disrupt cell-cycle regulation. The most current methods for identifying CGIs suffered from various limitations and involved a lot of human interventions. This paper gives an easy searching technique with data mining of Markov Chain in genes. Markov chain model has been applied to study the probability of occurrence of C-G pair in the given   gene sequence. Maximum Likelihood estimators for the transition probabilities for each model and analgously for the  model has been developed and log odds ratio that is calculated estimates the presence or absence of CpG is lands in the given gene which brings in many  facts for the cancer detection in human genome.

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