scholarly journals Diagnosis and Prediction of IIGPS’ Countries Bubble Crashes during BREXIT

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1003
Author(s):  
Bikramaditya Ghosh ◽  
Spyros Papathanasiou ◽  
Nikita Ramchandani ◽  
Dimitrios Kenourgios
Keyword(s):  
Critical Point ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Speculative Bubble ◽  
Financial Bubbles ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Bubble Phase

We herein employ an alternative approach to model the financial bubbles prior to crashes and fit a log-periodic power law (LPPL) to IIGPS countries (Italy, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain) during Brexit. These countries represent the five financially troubled economies of the Eurozone that have suffered the most during the Brexit referendum. It was found that all 77 crashes across the five IIGPS nations from 19 January 2015 until 17 February 2020 strictly followed a log-periodic power law or other LPPL signature. They all had a speculative bubble phase (following the power law growth) that was then followed by a sudden crash immediately after reaching a critical point. Furthermore, their pattern coefficients were similar as well. This study would surely assist policymakers around the Eurozone to predict future crashes with the help of these parameters.

An Alternative Approach for Modeling the Hot Carrier Degradation of the Si/SiO2 Interface

1998 ◽  
Vol 513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi Chen ◽  
Jinju Lee ◽  
Joseph W. Lyding
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Interface Trap ◽  
Hot Carrier ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Physical Insight ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Good Agreement ◽  
Hot Carrier Degradation

ABSTRACTAn alternative approach for modeling the hot carrier degradation of the Si/SiO2 interface based on the dispersive characteristics of the interface trap generation has been proposed. The timedependent interface trap generation has been modeled using the stretched exponential expression. The conventional power law of degradation is just the approximation of this general form. Very good agreement has been found between the theoretical model and the experimental data. This approach gives more physical insight into the understanding of the mechanism for the interface trap generation.

DIFFUSIONAL MODEL FOR NOISY ON–OFF INTERMITTENCY

1999 ◽  
Vol 09 (02) ◽  
pp. 355-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. ČENYS ◽  
J. ULBIKAS ◽  
A. N. ANAGNOSTOPOULOS ◽  
G. L. BLERIS
Keyword(s):  
Critical Point ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Exponential Law ◽  
Universal Distribution ◽  
Diffusional Model

Statistical properties of the laminar lengths for the noisy on–off intermittency are studied analytically. The universal distribution of the laminar phases is obtained at the critical point. It can be approximated by the power law with the exponent -3/2 and the exponential law describing fast falloff.

RANDOM MULTIPLICATIVE RESPONSE FUNCTIONS IN GRANULAR CONTACT NETWORKS

2001 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 523-533
Author(s):  
CRISTIAN F. MOUKARZEL
Keyword(s):  
Critical Point ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Applied Pressure ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Green Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Power Law Distribution ◽  
Granular Packing ◽  
Multiplicative Processes

The contact network of a frictionless polydisperse granular packing is isostatic in the limit of low applied pressure. It is argued here that, on disordered isostatic networks, displacement–displacement and stress–stress static Green functions are described by random multiplicative processes and have a truncated power-law distribution, with a cut-off that grows exponentially with distance. If the external pressure is increased sufficiently, excess contacts are created, the packing becomes hyperstatic, and the abovementioned anomalous properties disappear because Green functions now have a bounded distribution. Thus, the low-pressure, isostatic, limit is a critical point.

Elite workers and the colony-level pattern of labor division in the yellowjacket wasp, Vespula germanica

Behaviour ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 140 (7) ◽  
pp. 827-845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Nordheim ◽  
Christine Hurd ◽  
Robert Jeanne
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Power Law Distribution ◽  
Vespula Germanica ◽  
Labor Division ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Alternative Approach ◽  
Disproportionate Number ◽  
Colony Level

AbstractMeasurements of carbohydrate foraging behavior of Vespula germanica yellowjackets show that the distribution of the number of foragers over the number of trips is highly skewed with a few foragers making a disproportionate number of trips. We tested several empirical models based on different biological assumptions to see which model best described the distribution. For all periods of observation, the data are well fitted by a straight line on a log-log plot. This fit indicates that the distribution of labor is non-increasing monotonic; i.e. continually decreasing, and follows a power law. Stochasticity and self-organization are two possible explanations for the power law distribution. As an alternative approach, cluster analysis of various foraging characteristics of individual foragers clearly separated foragers into two groups and is consistent with a bimodal model for the division of foraging labor. Based on these cluster results, we operationally defined workers as either 'elite' or 'non-elite'. We found that elite foragers are not more likely than non-elites to be task specialists. The data show that workers develop into elites but do not support the hypothesis of self-reinforcement as the mechanism.

scholarly journals Phase Transition in Gold Nuclei at 10.6A GeV

1997 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 1101-1109 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. L. Jain ◽  
G. Singh ◽  
R. Gonsalves
Keyword(s):  
Phase Transition ◽  
Nuclear Matter ◽  
Critical Point ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Critical Exponents ◽  
Nuclear Emulsion ◽  
Charged Fragment ◽  
Gas System ◽  
Fragment Distribution

The charge (Z) distribution of multifragment decays of 197 Au projectile at 10.6A GeV in nuclear emulsion is fitted with a power-law. The moments of nuclear charged fragment distribution provide strong evidence that nuclear matter possesses critical point observables. The observed values of the critical exponents γ, β and τ are very close to those for a liquid–gas system.

scholarly journals Forecasting Financial Crashes: Revisit to Log-Periodic Power Law

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingcun Dai ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Domenico Tarzia ◽  
Kwangwon Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Peak Detection ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Diagnostic Analysis ◽  
Financial Bubbles ◽  
Critical Times

We aim to provide an algorithm to predict the distribution of the critical times of financial bubbles employing a log-periodic power law. Our approach consists of a constrained genetic algorithm and an improved price gyration method, which generates an initial population of parameters using historical data for the genetic algorithm. The key enhancements of price gyration algorithm are (i) different window sizes for peak detection and (ii) a distance-based weighting approach for peak selection. Our results show a significant improvement in the prediction of financial crashes. The diagnostic analysis further demonstrates the accuracy, efficiency, and stability of our predictions.

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