Exploration of Sustainable Urban Transportation Development in China through the Forecast of Private Vehicle Ownership

With the acceleration of China’s urbanization process, the urban transportation problem has become increasingly serious. The rapid expansion of private vehicle ownership, in particular, has become one of the barriers to the realization of sustainable urban transition. This paper applied the Gompertz model to analyze the non-linear relationship between private vehicle ownership and per capita GDP in China using provincial data. In addition, we forecasted private vehicle ownership for 31 Chinese provinces for the period of 2019–2030 and predicted the time to reach the upper limit of 1000 people vehicle ownership of each province according to different scenarios. The main findings revealed that the number of private vehicles owned in China’s provinces was in line with “S”-shaped development and was currently in the process of accelerated growth. Under the scenario of an annual per capita GDP growth rate of 6%, China’s private vehicle ownership will reach 246 million, 375 million, and 475 million in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively. This indicates that China’s expansion of private vehicle ownership will generate significant challenges, such as on-road vehicle-related fossil fuel consumption, pollutant emissions, traffic congestion, and scrapped vehicle recycling. These issues will become increasingly prominent. In provinces such as Hubei, Hebei, Hunan, and other central provinces that have a 50–60% urbanization rate, the large potential for income promotion will significantly stimulate the increase in private vehicle ownership, and the upper limit of 1000 people vehicle ownership in each province will be reached in 2032, 2037, and 2046 with annual per capita GDP growth rates of 8%, 6%, and 4%, respectively.

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Do Military Expenditure and Conflict Affect Economic Growth in Sri Lanka? Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Test Approach

International Journal of Economics and Finance ◽

10.5539/ijef.v8n3p1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Abdul Rasheed Sithy Jesmy ◽

Mohd Zaini Abd Karim ◽

Shri Dewi Applanaidu

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Civil War ◽

Sri Lanka ◽

Military Expenditure ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Per Capita Gdp ◽

Long Run ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Per Capita ◽

Bounds Test

Conflicts in the form of civil war, ethnic tensions and political discord are of enduring concern and a major bottleneck to economic development in Sri Lanka. Three decades of civil war and unethical political culture have caused severe economic problems for the country, including slower rate of growth and a huge defence expenditure. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of military expenditure and conflict on per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka from 1973 to 2014 using the Solow growth model and ARDL bounds test approach. The results of the bounds test are highly significant and lead to cointegration. The negative and significant coefficients of the error correction term illustrate the expected convergence process in the long-run dynamic of per capita GDP. The estimated empirical results show that, the coefficients of military expenditure and conflict are negative and statistically significant in the short-run as well as in the long-run in determining per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka. Hence, it is critically important to take necessary action to decrease military expenditure and provide an efficient political solution to the problem of minorities, specifically in the post-war period.

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Urban Geographical Economics and per Capita GDP Growth in Romania

EUROPEAN RESEARCH STUDIES JOURNAL ◽

10.35808/ersj/365 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol XV (Issue 3) ◽

pp. 109-134

Author(s):

Jesús López-Rodríguez ◽

Cosmin Bolea-Gabriel

Keyword(s):

Gdp Growth ◽

Per Capita Gdp ◽

Per Capita

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The Impact of Infrastructure on Growth in Developing Countries

Advances in Finance, Accounting, and Economics - Handbook of Research on Economic, Financial, and Industrial Impacts on Infrastructure Development ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-2361-1.ch003 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 40-68 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Derya Yılmaz ◽

Işın Çetin

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Instrumental Variables ◽

Dynamic Panel Data ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Per Capita Gdp ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Generating Capacity ◽

Catch Up ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Impact

Infrastructure and growth nexus has been debated in the literature since 1980s. This debate has a vital importance for the sake of developing countries. These countries need to grow faster in order to catch-up their advanced counterparts. Thus, it is important to detect the effect of infrastructure on growth. Bearing in mind this fact, we develop a standard growth regression in this present chapter using per capita GDP growth rate as a dependent variable. Infrastructure is added to the model as an index constructed from the indicators of infrastructure: total electric generating capacity, total telephone lines and the length of road network. We also employ set of instrumental variables comprising 29 developing countries between 1990 and 2014. In order to estimate our dynamic panel data we prefer GMM estimators. According to our empirical analysis, we can claim that infrastructure has a positive and significant impact on growth. But this impact is smaller than the earlier studies predict.

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China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11143928 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (14) ◽

pp. 3928 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Lin Ma ◽

Manhua Wu ◽

Xiujuan Tian ◽

Guanheng Zheng ◽

Qinchuan Du ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Economic Development ◽

Gompertz Model ◽

Sustainable Transportation ◽

Gdp Per Capita ◽

Employment Rate ◽

Vehicle Ownership ◽

Per Capita ◽

Transport Problems ◽

The Impact

The growth of vehicle ownership not only brings opportunity for the economy, but also brings environment and transport problems, which is not good for sustainable transportation. It is of great significance to build supporting infrastructure and other services based on accurate forecasts of vehicle ownership in various provinces because of the variance of economic development stages, the carrying capacity of resources, and different degrees of transport planning in each province. We used the Gompertz model in order to predict China’s provincial vehicle ownership from 2018 to 2050. Considering the impact of the population structure, we summed up the growth rate of GDP per labor, the growth rate of population and the growth rate of employment rate to get the growth rate of GDP and then the GDP per capita of each province. We found that the vehicle ownership in each province will grow rapidly in the next 30 years; however, the change in the ranking of vehicle ownership among provinces varies. The ranking of some provinces with high or middle ranking now will decline in the following years, especially Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Xinjiang. While the ranking of some provinces that locates in the middle and low ranking now will increase, such as Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangxi. We also investigate the reasons that affect the trend in each province and we find that the suitable vehicle growth pattern of each province, the stage of economic development and government policy, which are related to the growth rate of GDP per labor, employment rate, and GDP per capita, can affect vehicle ownership in the future.

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