scholarly journals Estimated Time to Restoration of Hurricane Sandy in a Future Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6502
Author(s):  
Tara C. Walsh ◽  
David W. Wanik ◽  
Emmanouil N. Anagnostou ◽  
Jonathan E. Mellor
Keyword(s):  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Power Outage ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Power outage restoration following extreme storms is a complicated process that couples engineering processes and human decisions. Emergency managers typically rely on past experiences and have limited access to computer simulations to aid in decision-making. Climate scientists predict that although hurricane frequency may decrease, the intensity of storms may increase. Increased damage from hurricanes will result in new restoration challenges that emergency managers may not have experience solving. Our study uses agent-based modeling (ABM) to determine how restoration might have been impacted for 30 different scenarios of Hurricane Sandy for a climate in 2112 (Sandy2112). These Sandy2112 scenarios were obtained from a previous study that modeled how outages from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 might have been affected in the future as climate change intensified both wind and precipitation hazards. As the number of outages increases, so does the expected estimated time to restoration for each storm. The impact of increasing crews is also studied to determine the relationship between the number of crews and outage durations (or restoration curves). Both the number of outages and the number of crews impact the variability in time to restoration. Our results can help emergency managers and policy makers plan for future hurricanes that are likely to become stronger and more impactful to critical infrastructure.

Community Lifeline Framework for Leveraging Stabilization in Response and Recovery to Major Hurricanes

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-9
Author(s):  
Judy Kruger
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Lines ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Electrical Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
The Us ◽  
Response And Recovery ◽  
The Impact

The United States (US) and Caribbean regions remain vulnerable to the impact of severe tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons. In 2017, a series of hurricanes posed threats to residents living in inland and coastal communities as well as on islands isolated from the US mainland. Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria caused catastrophic infrastructure damage, resulting in a loss of electrical power and communications due to damaged or downed utility poles, cell towers, and transmission lines. Critical services were inoperable for many months. Emergency managers are public officials who are accountable to both political leaders and the citizens. During disaster events, emergency managers must prioritize areas of effort, manage personnel, and communicate with stakeholders to address critical infrastructure interdependences. Essential lifeline services (eg, energy and communications) were inoperable for many months, which led to increased attention from policy-makers, media, and the public.

An Analytical Approach to Cruise Tourism As an Option For Development: a Case Study of the Sultanate of Oman

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-109
Author(s):  
Heba Aziz ◽  
Osman El-Said ◽  
Marike Bontenbal
Keyword(s):  
Capital City ◽  
Sultanate Of Oman ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Cruise Tourism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Average Expenditure ◽  
Return Intention

The objective of this study was to measure the level of cruise tourists' satisfaction as well as the relationship between satisfaction, recommendation, return intention, and expenditure. Also, the impact of factors such as nationality, length of the visit, and age on the level of expenditure was measured. An empirical approach for data collection was followed and a total of 152 questionnaires were collected from cruise tourists visiting the capital city of Oman, Muscat, as cruise liners anchor at Sultan Qaboos Port. Results of the regression analysis supported the existence of a causal relationship between satisfaction with destination attributes, overall satisfaction, recommendation, return intention, and expenditure. It was found that the average expenditure varies according to age and length of the visit. Recommendations for policy makers were suggested on how to increase the role of cruise tourism in strengthening the economy.

scholarly journals Investigating Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread and Containment with Agent-Based Modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5367
Author(s):  
Amirarsalan Rajabi ◽  
Alexander V. Mantzaris ◽  
Ece C. Mutlu ◽  
Ozlem O. Garibay
Keyword(s):  
Disease Model ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Behavioral Adaptations ◽  
Travel Restrictions

Governments, policy makers, and officials around the globe are working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by making decisions that strive to save the most lives and impose the least economic costs. Making these decisions require comprehensive understanding of the dynamics by which the disease spreads. In traditional epidemiological models, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during an epidemic, yet adaptive behavior is well documented (i.e., fear-induced social distancing). In this work we revisit Epstein’s “coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease” model in order to extend and adapt it to explore fear-driven behavioral adaptations and their impact on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The inclusion of contact behavior adaptation endows the resulting model with a rich dynamics that under certain conditions reproduce endogenously multiple waves of infection. We show that the model provides an appropriate test bed for different containment strategies such as: testing with contact tracing and travel restrictions. The results show that while both strategies could result in flattening the epidemic curve and a significant reduction of the maximum number of infected individuals; testing should be applied along with tracing previous contacts of the tested individuals to be effective. The results show how the curve is flattened with testing partnered with contact tracing, and the imposition of travel restrictions.

scholarly journals Unlocking Household Electricity Consumption in Pakistan

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 566
Author(s):  
Khuram Pervez Amber ◽  
Rizwan Ahmad ◽  
Mina Farmanbar ◽  
Muhammad Anser Bashir ◽  
Sajid Mehmood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Supply ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Average Family Size ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Conclusion Section ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In Pakistan, data for household electricity consumption are available in the form of monthly electricity bills only, and, therefore, are not helpful in establishing appliance-wise consumption. Further, it does not help in establishing the relationship among the household electricity consumption and various driving factors. This study aimed to unlock the household electricity consumption in Pakistan by analyzing electricity bills and investigating the impact of various socioeconomic, demographic, and dwelling parameters and usage of different appliances. The methodology adopted in this study was survey-based data collection of the residential sector. For this purpose, data were collected from 523 dwellings through surveys and interviews in Mirpur city. The results of the data analysis revealed that the average household electricity consumption is 2469 kWh/year with an average family size of seven and an average floor area of 78.91 m2. Based on possession of various appliances, the households were categorized into four types and their consumption patterns were established and compared. Air Conditioned (AC) houses consume 44% more electricity compared to the non-AC houses, whereas an Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) consumes electricity equivalent to an AC. The research findings are useful for policy makers and building designers and are discussed in the conclusion section.

Optimal Patent Design

2013 ◽  
pp. 280-302
Author(s):  
Anthony Brabazon
Keyword(s):  
Product Space ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Technological Advance ◽  
Patent Policy ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Patent Design ◽  
Patent Breadth

Patents provide a patentee with a degree of monopoly power over a region of product space. The “breadth” and “duration” of patents are policy choices. Increasing patent breadth and duration will ceteris paribus increase the rent, which an individual inventor could earn from a commercially successful invention. However, the precise nature of the relationship between patent policy and the rate of societal technical advance, which is stimulated by a given patent design, is not well understood. In this chapter, the authors novelly investigate this issue using an agent-based modeling approach. The simulation results obtained raise questions about the real utility of patent policy in promoting technological advance and suggest that other policy instruments are actually more important.

scholarly journals Natural factors of technological accidents: the case of Russia

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2227-2234 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. G. Petrova
Keyword(s):  
Data Base ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Russian Far East ◽  
Far East ◽  
Overhead Lines ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Russian Far East ◽  
Special Protection

Abstract. The data base of technological accidents and disasters that have occurred in Russia has been created. More than 13 000 information units have been collected and analyzed. The proportion of accidents triggered by natural events (natural-technological accidents or NTA) in the total number of technological accidents as well as a part of every NTA type in the total number of NTA was estimated. About 10 percent of all accidents registered in the data base were caused by natural events; among some types of accidents this proportion is even higher. Transmission facilities with more than 90 percent of overhead lines are the most vulnerable to the impact of natural hazards. The contribution of different natural hazards was evaluated. Regions with the greatest NTA risk were revealed. The influence of natural events on the technosphere is stronger in the South of the European Russia and in the Russian Far East, which are more exposed to hurricanes, snowstorms, rainfalls, icing and other natural hazards producing NTA. The critical infrastructure needs special protection and modernization in these regions. The problem of the relationship between natural hazards and the technosphere is very complicated and needs further investigation, especially taking the expected climate changes into consideration.

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