scholarly journals Do Tourism and Institutional Quality Asymmetrically Effects on FDI Sustainability in BIMSTEC Countries: An Application of ARDL, CS-ARDL, NARDL, and Asymmetric Causality Test

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 9989
Author(s):  
Yang Yixing ◽  
Md. Qamruzzaman ◽  
Mohd Ziaur Rehman ◽  
Salma Karim
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Causality ◽  
The Relationship

The motivation of the study is to investigate the nature of the relationship between institutional quality, tourism, and FDI in BIMSTEC nations for the period 1996Q1–2018Q4. Exploring their nature of association, the study performed several panel econometric models, namely Panel ARDL, Nonlinear ARDL, and Toda-Yamamoto causality test, with symmetric and asymmetric effects of institutional quality and tourism. The results of the Wald test confirmed the long-run asymmetric relationship between institutional quality, tourism, and FDI, both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, directional casualty established a feedback hypothesis explaining the relationship between institutional quality, tourism, and FDI.

scholarly journals Do Exchange Rate Changes Have Asymmetric or Symmetric Effects on the Demand for Money in the Gambia

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 276
Author(s):  
Kebba Bah ◽  
Karamat Khan ◽  
Artif Taufiq Nurrachman Aziez ◽  
Ali Kishwar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The Gambia ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Relationship

In trying to explain the relationship between exchange rate and demand for money researchers have applied different models. In this paper, we applied both the linear and nonlinear ARDL to check the effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money (M1 and M2) in The Gambia. The result revealed that the demand for money is cointegrated with its determinants and have a stable short-run relationship. It also revealed that exchange rate changes have only short-run asymmetric effects on demand for money (M1 or M2) but don’t have long-run effects.

scholarly journals Inflation, Unemployment and NAIRU Estimate in Indonesia: Phillips Curve Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 24-32
Author(s):  
Nurul Hafnati ◽  
Sofyan Syahnur
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The present study was carried out to analyze the relationship between inflation and unemployment in NAIRU estimate in Indonesia through Phillips curve approach during 25 years data from 1991-2016. The analysis model used in this research was Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as attempts to determine the long run and short run relationships between inflation and unemployment matters in Indonesia. The results of Granger causality test indicated two-way relationship between inflation and unemployment in Indonesia. The formulated results on long run estimate pointed out that unemployment delivered negative and significant effects on inflation. Nonetheless, Wald Test designated that there was a short run relationship between inflation and unemployment

scholarly journals Financial Innovation and Financial Inclusion Nexus in South Asian Countries: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Panel Investigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qamruzzaman ◽  
Wei
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper examines the nexus between financial inclusion and financial innovation while incorporating financial development and remittance inflows in the case of six South Asian countries—Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and Srilanka—by employing the panel autoregressive distributed lagged model under a linear and nonlinear framework using monthly data over the period 1990M1–2018M12. Further, a Granger-causality test with System GMM specification was performed for assessing directional causality. The study findings from Panel ARDL confirmed the positive association between financial innovation and financial inclusion, which was observed both in the long run and short-run. Considering the nonlinearity in the estimation, the standard Wald test confirms the existence of an asymmetric relationship both in the short-run and in long run horizon regarding causality test results. The study findings support the feedback hypothesis that the presence of bidirectional causality between the financial innovation and financial inclusion is both in the short-run and long run. Since the study findings established a critical relationship between financial innovation and financial inclusion, therefore effective policy guidelines are suggested so that the contribution from financial inclusion and financial innovation can assist in developing a vibrant financial sector.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals FDI and Economic Growth in EU13 Countries: Cointegration and Causality Tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, MONETARY UNCERTAINTY, AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN AFRICA: AN ASYMMETRY ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050007
Author(s):  
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE ◽  
AUGUSTINE C. ARIZE
Keyword(s):  
Money Demand ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Uncertainty Measures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Economic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty are two uncertainty measures that are said to affect the demand for money in any country and our region of interest, Africa, is no exception. In this paper, we take an additional step and argue that changes in any uncertainty measure could have asymmetric effects on the money demand. After applying the linear and nonlinear ARDL approaches to each of the 13 African nations, while we find the short-run effects of both uncertainty measures to be asymmetric, long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in limited number of countries. We also discovered that monetary volatility has more long-run effects than output volatility which implies that a steady and not so erratic money growth will have its predictive impact on the African economies.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impact of International Trade on Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions in MINT Nations

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
pp. 6581
Author(s):  
Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo ◽  
Abraham Ayobamiji Awosusi ◽  
Husam Rjoub ◽  
Mirela Panait ◽  
Catalin Popescu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Bds Test

The association between carbon emissions and international trade has been examined thoroughly; however, consumption-based carbon emissions, which is adjusted for international trade, have not been studied extensively. Therefore, the present study assesses the asymmetric impact of trade (import and export) and economic growth in consumption-based carbon emissions (CCO2) using the MINT nations (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) as a case study. We applied the Nonlinear ARDL to assess this connection using dataset between 1990 and 2018. The outcomes from the BDS test affirmed the use of nonlinear techniques. Furthermore, the NARDL bounds test confirmed long-run association between CCO2 and exports, imports and economic growth. The outcomes from the NARDL long and short-run estimates disclosed that positive (negative) shocks in imports increase (decrease) CCO2 emissions in all the MINT nations. Moreover, positive (negative) shocks in exports decrease (increase) CCO2 emissions in all the MINT nations. As expected, a positive shock in economic growth triggers CCO2 emissions while a negative shift does not have significant impact on CCO2 emissions in the MINT nations. Furthermore, we applied the Gradual shift causality test and the outcomes disclose that imports and economic growth can predict CCO2 emissions in the MINT nations. The study outcomes have significant policy recommendations for policymakers in the MINT nations.

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 243
Author(s):  
Patience Nkala ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Consumption has been and remains the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa. Household debt on the other side has remained high over the years. These two economic indicators are a reflection of the well-being of an economy. This study thus examined the relationship between household debt and consumption spending, for the period between 1994 and 2013. The Johansen cointegration technique and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were utilised to test the long run and short run relationships between the variables. The Granger causality test was also employed to test the direction of causality between the variables. Results from this study have revealed that a relationship exists between household debt and consumption spending in South Africa and they have also showed that this relationship flows from household debt to consumption spending. The implications of these results are that consumption spending may be increased through other measures rather than through increasing debt. The study therefore recommends that policy makers avail more investment opportunities for households and to also create employment in a bid to increase the income of households which can then be used to increase household consumption rather than the use of debt.

scholarly journals Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Innovation: Is There Any Affiliation?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeng Jia ◽  
Besnik Hajdari ◽  
Rimsha Khalid ◽  
Jianguo Wei ◽  
Md Qamruzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetry Effects

The study's motivation is to gauge the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and financial innovation for the period 2004M1 to 2018M12 in BRIC nations. For establishing a long-run cointegration study applied Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and asymmetry effects of economic policy uncertainty investigated following nonlinear framework known as NARDL. Furthermore, directional causality is established by performing a non-granger causality test. Cointegration test results of Fpss, Wpss, and tBDM confirmed the long-run association between EPU and financial innovation. On the other hand, the Wald test results proved asymmetry effects furring from EPU to financial innovation both in the long-run and short-run. Referring to asymmetry effects that positive and negative shocks in financial innovation, the study revealed that negative linkage between shocks in EPU and financial innovation in the long-run but short-run effects are insignificant. Furthermore, financial innovation measured by R&D investment exhibits positive linked with shocks in EPU, implying that uncertainty induces innovation in the economy. Refers to directional causality estimation, the study revealed evidence supporting the feedback hypothesis between EPU and financial innovation in all sample countries.

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