scholarly journals Evaluation the WRF Model with Different Land Surface Schemes: Heat Wave Event Simulations and Its Relation to Pacific Variability over Coastal Region, Karachi, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12608
Author(s):  
Adil Dilawar ◽  
Baozhang Chen ◽  
Lifeng Guo ◽  
Shuan Liu ◽  
Muhammad Shafeeque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Heat Wave Event ◽  
Wave Event

This study investigates the relative role of land surface schemes (LSS) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, Version 4, to simulate the heat wave events in Karachi, Pakistan during 16–23 May 2018. The efficiency of the WRF model was evaluated in forecasting heat wave events over Karachi using the three different LSS, namely NOAH, NOAH-MP, and RUC. In addition to this we have used the longwave (RRTM) and shortwave (Dudhia) in all schemes. Three simulating setups were designed with a combination of shortwave, longwave, and LSS: E1 (Dudhia, RRTM, and Noah), E2 (Dudhia, RRTM, and Noah-MP), and E3 (Dudhia, RRTM, and RUC). All setups were carried out with a finer resolution of 1 km × 1 km. Findings of current study depicted that E2 produces a more realistic simulation of daily maximum temperature T(max) at 2m, sensible heat (SH), and latent heat (LH) because it has higher R2 and lower errors (BIAS, RMSE, MAE) compared to other schemes. Consequently, Noah-MP (LSS) accurately estimates T(max) and land surface heat fluxes (SH&LH) because uses multiple physics options for land atmosphere interaction processes. According to statistical analyses, E2 setup outperforms other setups in term of T(max) and (LH&SH) forecasting with the higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) agreement is 0.84 (0.89). This research emphasizes that the selection of LSS is of vital importance in the best simulation of T(max) and SH (LH) over Karachi. Further, it is resulted that the SH flux is taking a higher part to trigger the heat wave event intensity during May 2018 due to dense urban canopy and less vegetated area. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event played role to prolong and strengthen the heat wave period by effecting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) through walker circulation extension.

Analysis of the extreme heat events in Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hojjatollah Yazdanpanah ◽  
Josef Eitzinger ◽  
Marina Baldi
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hot Days

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the spatial and temporal variations of extreme hot days (H*) and heat wave frequencies across Iran. Design/methodology/approach The authors used daily maximum temperature (Tmax) data of 27 synoptic stations in Iran. These data were standardized using the mean and the standard deviation of each day of the year. An extreme hot day was defined when the Z score of daily maximum temperature of that day was equal or more than a given threshold fixed at 1.7, while a heat wave event was considered to occur when the Z score exceeds the threshold for at least three continuous days. According to these criteria, the annual frequency of extreme hot days and the number of heat waves were determined for all stations. Findings The trend analysis of H* shows a positive trend during the past two decades in Iran, with the maximum number of H* (110 cases) observed in 2010. A significant trend of the number of heat waves per year was also detected during 1991-2013 in all the stations. Overall, results indicate that Iran has experienced heat waves in recent years more often than its long-term average. There will be more frequent and intense hot days and heat waves across Iran until 2050, due to estimated increase of mean air temperature between 0.5-1.1 and 0.8-1.6 degree centigrade for Rcp2.6 and Rcp8.8 scenarios, respectively. Originality/value The trend analysis of hot days and heat wave frequencies is a particularly original aspect of this paper. It is very important for policy- and decision-makers especially in agriculture and health sectors of Iran to make some adaptation strategies for future frequent and intense hot days over Iran.

scholarly journals A Stepwise-Clustered Simulation Approach for Projecting Future Heat Wave Over Guangdong Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiayan Ren ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Yongping Li ◽  
Xiong Zhou ◽  
Jinliang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Simulation Approach

A heat wave is an important meteorological extreme event related to global warming, but little is known about the characteristics of future heat waves in Guangdong. Therefore, a stepwise-clustered simulation approach driven by multiple global climate models (i.e., GCMs) is developed for projecting future heat waves over Guangdong under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The temporal-spatial variations of four indicators (i.e., intensity, total intensity, frequency, and the longest duration) of projected heat waves, as well as the potential changes in daily maximum temperature (i.e., Tmax) for future (i.e., 2006–2095) and historical (i.e., 1976–2005) periods, were analyzed over Guangdong. The results indicated that Guangdong would endure a notable increasing annual trend in the projected Tmax (i.e., 0.016–0.03°C per year under RCP4.5 and 0.027–0.057°C per year under RCP8.5). Evaluations of the multiple GCMs and their ensemble suggested that the developed approach performed well, and the model ensemble was superior to any single GCM in capturing the features of heat waves. The spatial patterns and interannual trends displayed that Guangdong would undergo serious heat waves in the future. The variations of intensity, total intensity, frequency, and the longest duration of heat wave are likely to exceed 5.4°C per event, 24°C, 25 days, and 4 days in the 2080s under RCP8.5, respectively. Higher variation of those would concentrate in eastern and southwestern Guangdong. It also presented that severe heat waves with stronger intensity, higher frequency, and longer duration would have significant increasing tendencies over all Guangdong, which are expected to increase at a rate of 0.14, 0.83, and 0.21% per year under RCP8.5, respectively. Over 60% of Guangdong would suffer the moderate variation of heat waves to the end of this century under RCP8.5. The findings can provide decision makers with useful information to help mitigate the potential impacts of heat waves on pivotal regions as well as ecosystems that are sensitive to extreme temperature.

scholarly journals Quality of the Governing Temperature Variables in WRF in relation to Simulation of Primary Biological Aerosols

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Skjøth ◽  
M. Werner ◽  
M. Kryza ◽  
B. Adams-Groom ◽  
A. Wakeham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Birch Pollen ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Ash Dieback ◽  
Crop Science

We have evaluated three prognostic variables in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, mean daily temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily minimum temperature using 9 months of model simulations at 36 and 12 km resolution, and compared the results with 1182 observational sites in north and central Europe. The quality of the results is then determined in the context of the governing variables used in crop science, forestry, and aerobiological models. We use the results to simulate the peak of the birch pollen season (aerobiology), growth of barley (crop science), and development of the invasive plant pathogenHymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus(the cause of ash-dieback). The results show that the crop and aerobiological models are particularly sensitive to grid resolution and much higher quality is obtained from the 12 km simulations compared to 36 km. The results also show that the summer months have a bias, in particular for maximum and minimum temperatures, and that the low/high bias is clustered in two areas: continental and coastal influenced areas. It is suggested that the use of results from meteorological models as an input into biological models needs particular attention in the quality of the modelled surface data as well as the applied land surface modules.

Model evaluation for Heatwaves over South Korea in CMIP6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Seon Oh ◽  
Maeng-Ki Kim ◽  
Dae-Geun Yu ◽  
Jeong Sang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Development Program ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
Simulation Performance ◽  
Diagnostic Indices

<p>In this study, we defined diagnostic indices to evaluate the CMIP6 models based on the heatwaves mechanisms of Korea presented in previous studies. Based on this, the simulation performance of the model was quantitatively evaluated using Relative Error (RE), Inter-annual Variability Skill-score (IVS), and Correlation Coefficient (CC). The REs in diagnostic indices are still large, especially in heat wave circulation index (HWCI) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall index (IMRI), which is mainly due to weak convective activity bias over the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the northwestern India. However, the IVSs in diagnostic indices have been improved overall in the CMIP6 compared to the CMIP5, especially in the IMRI. The CC between the daily maximum temperature (TMAX) and the diagnostic factors in the model is very higher in HWCI than other indices, indicating that the convective activity over the northwestern Pacific is very important in heat wave in Korea. As a result, the total ranking of the model performance for heatwaves in Korea suggested that EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3, and UKESM-1-0-LL ranked high in CMIP6.</p><p> </p><p>This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI(KMI2018-03410)</p>

scholarly journals Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 Heat Wave: A Climate Change Adaptation Study

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khyati Kakkad ◽  
Michelle L. Barzaga ◽  
Sylvan Wallenstein ◽  
Gulrez Shah Azhar ◽  
Perry E. Sheffield
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Vulnerable Populations ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Neonatal Morbidity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Maternity Ward

Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2–88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation—here relocating one ward—and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations.

scholarly journals Diverse Characteristics of U.S. Summer Heat Waves

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (19) ◽  
pp. 7827-7845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradfield Lyon ◽  
Anthony G. Barnston
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Regional Variations ◽  
Daily Minimum ◽  
Summer Heat

Abstract Heat waves are climate extremes having significant environmental and social impacts. However, there is no universally accepted definition of a heat wave. The major goal of this study is to compare characteristics of continental U.S. warm season (May–September) heat waves defined using four different variables—temperature itself and three variables incorporating atmospheric moisture—all for differing intensity and duration requirements. To normalize across different locations and climates, daily intensity is defined using percentiles computed over the 1979–2013 period. The primary data source is the U.S. Historical Climatological Network (USHCN), with humidity data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) also tested and utilized. The results indicate that heat waves defined using daily maximum temperatures are more frequent and persistent than when based on minimum temperatures, with substantial regional variations in behavior. For all four temperature variables, heat waves based on daily minimum values have greater spatial coherency than for daily maximum values. Regionally, statistically significant upward trends (1979–2013) in heat wave frequency are identified, largest when based on daily minimum values, across variables. Other notable differences in behavior include a higher frequency of heat waves based on maximum temperature itself than for variables that include humidity, while daily minimum temperatures show greater similarity across all variables in this regard. Overall, the study provides a baseline to compare with results from climate model simulations and projections, for examining differing regional and large-scale circulation patterns associated with U.S. summer heat waves and for examining the role of land surface conditions in modulating regional variations in heat wave behavior.

scholarly journals PROFILE OF NEONATES WITH FEVER ADMITTED IN NICU OF A TERTIARY CARE TEACHING HOSPITAL: A STUDY TO FIND EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEAT ON NEONATALAETIOLOGY OF FEVER

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Tamanna Mohta ◽  
Jay Sheth
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Teaching Hospital ◽  
Environmental Temperature ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Tertiary Care Teaching Hospital ◽  
Care Teaching

Background: Fever in the neonates generally indicate systemic infections but one more emerging cause towards fever in the neonatal period is the escalating environmental temperature and humidity. The present study was carried out to find out various causes of fever in neonates and to study various factors associated with the effect of environmental heat on neonatal hyperthermia. Methods: A prospective record based cross-sectional study was carried out on neonates with body temperature >100oF during the summer months at a tertiary care teaching hospital. The Study was approved by the institutional review board and data was collected after informed written consent of the parent/guardian. Results: From the total 319 neonatal admissions, a total of 51 neonates were meeting the inclusion criteria and 37(72.5%) neonates were diagnosed as having environmental hyperthermia. As the daily maximum temperature and the risk category due to heat wave increases from normal to orange, there are higher proportion of total neonates with environmental hyperthermia. Conclusion: Environmental hyperthermia is found to be the most common cause of hyperthermia in neonates during the summer months at a tertiary care teaching hospital. Neonate are at the higher risk of developing environmental hyperthermia as the daily maximum environmental temperature rises and the heat wave risk category increases.

scholarly journals Observational Evidences of Double Cropping Impacts on the Climate in the Northern China Plains

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (13) ◽  
pp. 4721-4728 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.-H. Ho ◽  
S.-J. Park ◽  
S.-J. Jeong ◽  
J. Kim ◽  
J.-G. Jhun
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Double Cropping

Abstract The impacts of harvested cropland in the double cropping region (DCR) of the northern China plains (NCP) on the regional climate are examined using surface meteorological data and the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST). The NDVI data are used to distinguish the DCR from the single cropping region (SCR) in the NCP. Notable increases in LST in the period May–June are found in the area identified as the DCR on the basis of the NDVI data. The difference between the mean daily maximum temperature averaged over the DCR and SCR stations peaks at 1.27°C in June. The specific humidity in the DCR is significantly smaller than in the SCR. These results suggest that the enhanced agricultural production by multiple cropping may amplify regional warming and aridity to further modify the regional climate in addition to the global climate change. Results in this study may also be used as a quantitative observed reference state of the crop/vegetation effects for future climate modeling studies.

scholarly journals Heat waves characteristics and their relation to air quality in Athens

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 919-928 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Daily Average ◽  
Suburban Site

<div> <p>This paper studies the characteristics of the heat waves that were observed in Athens, Greece since 1951. A heat wave is detected when two temperature criteria are fulfilled at the city centre: the daily maximum temperature value is at least 37 <sup>o</sup>C and the daily average temperature value is at least 31 <sup>o</sup>C. Information about the intensity, duration, timing in season and annual frequency of occurrence of heat waves were extracted. The slope of the linear fit of the annual number of heat wave days indicated that 1.30 more heat wave days per year were observed after 1992. The intensity and the duration of heat waves have also increased since 90s, while heat wave days have been detected during the whole summer since then, even during the first days of September. Additionally, air quality at the centre and at a suburb of Athens during the heat wave days that were identified during the last decade is examined. The daily average value of PM<sub>10</sub> concentration exceeded 50 μg m<sup>-3</sup> in 65% and 59% of the heat wave days at the urban and the suburban site, respectively, while the information and the alert O<sub>3</sub> threshold were exceeded in 17% and 5% of the heat wave days, respectively, at the suburban site. The degradation of air quality during heat wave days is also verified by the means of the common air quality index. Moreover, it was found that O<sub>3</sub> levels decrease when heat waves last more than 6 days.&nbsp;</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

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