Evaluation the WRF Model with Different Land Surface Schemes: Heat Wave Event Simulations and Its Relation to Pacific Variability over Coastal Region, Karachi, Pakistan

This study investigates the relative role of land surface schemes (LSS) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, Version 4, to simulate the heat wave events in Karachi, Pakistan during 16–23 May 2018. The efficiency of the WRF model was evaluated in forecasting heat wave events over Karachi using the three different LSS, namely NOAH, NOAH-MP, and RUC. In addition to this we have used the longwave (RRTM) and shortwave (Dudhia) in all schemes. Three simulating setups were designed with a combination of shortwave, longwave, and LSS: E1 (Dudhia, RRTM, and Noah), E2 (Dudhia, RRTM, and Noah-MP), and E3 (Dudhia, RRTM, and RUC). All setups were carried out with a finer resolution of 1 km × 1 km. Findings of current study depicted that E2 produces a more realistic simulation of daily maximum temperature T(max) at 2m, sensible heat (SH), and latent heat (LH) because it has higher R2 and lower errors (BIAS, RMSE, MAE) compared to other schemes. Consequently, Noah-MP (LSS) accurately estimates T(max) and land surface heat fluxes (SH&LH) because uses multiple physics options for land atmosphere interaction processes. According to statistical analyses, E2 setup outperforms other setups in term of T(max) and (LH&SH) forecasting with the higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) agreement is 0.84 (0.89). This research emphasizes that the selection of LSS is of vital importance in the best simulation of T(max) and SH (LH) over Karachi. Further, it is resulted that the SH flux is taking a higher part to trigger the heat wave event intensity during May 2018 due to dense urban canopy and less vegetated area. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event played role to prolong and strengthen the heat wave period by effecting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) through walker circulation extension.

Heat wave event facilitates defensive responses in invasive C3 plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. under elevated CO2 concentration to the detriment of insect herbivores

To predict and mitigate the effects of climate change on communities and ecosystems, the joint effects of extreme climatic events on species interactions need to be understood. Using the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.)—leaf beetle (Ophraella communa) system, we investigated the effects of heat wave and elevated CO2 on common ragweed growth, secondary metabolism, and the consequent impacts on the beetle. The results showed that elevated CO2 and heat wave facilitated A. Artemisiifolia growth; further, A. artemisiifolia accumulated large amounts of defensive secondary metabolites. Being fed on A. artemisiifolia grown under elevated CO2 and heat wave conditions resulted in the poor performance of O. communa (high mortality, long development period, and low reproduction). Overall, under elevated CO2, heat wave improved the defensive ability of A. artemisiifolia against herbivores. This implies that heat wave event will relieve harm of A. artemisiifolia to human under elevated CO2. On the other hand, super adaptability to climatic changes may aggravate invasive plant distribution, posing a challenge to the control of invasive plants in the future.

Numerical Simulation of Extreme Temperature (Heat Wave) in Bangladesh Using WRF-ARW Model

Every year Bangladesh experiences different types of natural hazards and heat wave is one of them. In the present study, an advanced high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) numerical mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe heat wave event occurred during April over Bangladesh and eastern part of India. The model is integrated for 6 days starting from UTC of 19 April to UTC of 24 April 2016, on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution. For validation of the model performance, the model simulated results of temperature at 2 m height, relative humidity (RH), mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at UTC of 6 days are compared with the BMD observed data. And the results indicate that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the heat wave event with 6 days over Bangladesh.

147 Changes in body temperature of lot-fed Bos taurus and Bos indicus steers during a heat wave

Body temperature (BT) is a reliable method for evaluating the thermal status of cattle. The objective of this study was to evaluate the regulation of BT in B. indicus and B. taurus steers during a heat wave event. Thirty-five steers (466.30±10.2kg) of mixed genotypes (B. taurus, n = 18; B. indicus, n = 17) were used in a larger 100-d study. Cattle were housed in six un-shaded pens at a commercial feedlot. Body temperature data for this were obtained at 1 h intervals over a 3-d heat wave event using in situ abdominal data loggers. Data were analysed using a repeated measures model, using residual maximum likelihood estimation. The model included genotype (B. taurus; B. indicus) and animal ID as random effects and hour as a fixed effect. Mean maximum BT occurred at 1500 h for B. taurus (40.52±0.03ºC) and 0400 h for B. indicus (40.48±0.31ºC). The BT of B. indicus decreased between 0400 h and 0700 h, and then increased to 1100 h (+0.10±0.01ºC/h), before decreasing again. The BT of B. taurus decreased between 0500 h and 0600 h, and then slowly increased (+0.04±0.01ºC/h) to 1500 h. Mean minimum BT occurred at 2100 h for B. taurus (40.12±0.11ºC) and 0700 h for B. indicus (40.00±0.22ºC). B. taurus maintained lower BT (40.21±0.05ºC) between 1900 h and 2200 h compared to B. indicus (40.27±0.05ºC) which may be due to disrupted heat loss mechanisms during the day, highlighting the importance of night time cooling. In response to increasing heat load, BT in B. taurus had slower increases but retained heat for longer, whilst B. indicus BT responded by a series of rapid increases and decreases. Developing an understanding of the differences in BT regulation in B. indicus and B. taurus will allow for more effective heat load management strategies during heat waves to be established.

PSII-4 Changes in body temperature of lot-fed Bos taurus and Bos indicus steers during a heat wave

Body temperature (BT) is a reliable method for evaluating the thermal status of cattle. The objective of this study was to evaluate the regulation of BT in B. indicus and B. taurus steers during a heat wave event. Thirty-five steers (466.30±10.2kg) of mixed genotypes (B. taurus, n = 18; B. indicus, n = 17) were used in a larger 100-d study. Cattle were housed in six un-shaded pens at a commercial feedlot. Body temperature data for this were obtained at 1 h intervals over a 3-d heat wave event using in situ abdominal data loggers. Data were analysed using a repeated measures model, using residual maximum likelihood estimation. The model included genotype (B. taurus; B. indicus) and animal ID as random effects and hour as a fixed effect. Mean maximum BT occurred at 1500 h for B. taurus (40.52±0.03ºC) and 0400 h for B. indicus (40.48±0.31ºC). The BT of B. indicus decreased between 0400 h and 0700 h, and then increased to 1100 h (+0.10±0.01ºC/h), before decreasing again. The BT of B. taurus decreased between 0500 h and 0600 h, and then slowly increased (+0.04±0.01ºC/h) to 1500 h. Mean minimum BT occurred at 2100 h for B. taurus (40.12±0.11ºC) and 0700 h for B. indicus (40.00±0.22ºC). B. taurus maintained lower BT (40.21±0.05ºC) between 1900 h and 2200 h compared to B. indicus (40.27±0.05ºC) which may be due to disrupted heat loss mechanisms during the day, highlighting the importance of night time cooling. In response to increasing heat load, BT in B. taurus had slower increases but retained heat for longer, whilst B. indicus BT responded by a series of rapid increases and decreases. Developing an understanding of the differences in BT regulation in B. indicus and B. taurus will allow for more effective heat load management strategies during heat waves to be established.