Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending  “The Tragedy of the Commons”

<p>Disentangling the effects of climate and land use changes on regional hydrological conditions is critical for local water and food security. The water variability over climate transition regions at the midlatitudes is sensitive to changes in regional climate and land use. Gansu, located in northwest China, is a midlatitude climate transition region with sharp climate and vegetation gradients. In this study, the effects of climate and land&#8209;use changes on water balances are investigated over Gansu between 1981 and 2015 using a Budyko framework. Results show that there is reduced runoff generation potential over Gansu during 1981 and 2015, especially in the southern part of the region. Based on statistical scaling relationships, local runoff generation potential over Gansu are related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intensified El Nino conditions weaken the Asian monsoons, leading to precipitation deficits over Gansu. Moreover, the regional evapotranspiration (ET) is increasing due to the warming temperature. The decreasing precipitation and increasing ET cause the decline of runoff generation potential over Gansu. Using the dynamical downscaling model outputs, the Budyko analysis indicates that increasing coverage of forests and croplands may lead to higher ET and may reduce runoff generation potential over Gansu. Moreover, the contributions of climate variability and land&#8209;use changes vary spatially. In the southwest part of Gansu, the impacts of climate variability on water variations are larger (around 80%) than that of land&#8209;use changes (around 20%), while land use changes are the dominant drivers of water variability in the southeast part of the region. The decline of runoff generation potential reveals a potential risk for local water and food security over Gansu. The water&#8209;resource assessment approach developed in this study is applicable for collaborative planning at other climate transition regions at the midlatitudes with complex climate and land types for the Belt and Road Initiative.</p>

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Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18030938 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. 938

Author(s):

Luoman Pu ◽

Jiuchun Yang ◽

Lingxue Yu ◽

Changsheng Xiong ◽

Fengqin Yan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Food Security ◽

Northeast China ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Sanjiang Plain ◽

Potential Production ◽

Potential Yield ◽

The Sanjiang Plain ◽

Ecological Zones ◽

The Future

Crop potential yields in cropland are the essential reflection of the utilization of cropland resources. The changes of the quantity, quality, and spatial distribution of cropland will directly affect the crop potential yields, so it is very crucial to simulate future cropland distribution and predict crop potential yields to ensure the future food security. In the present study, the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was employed to simulate land-use changes in Northeast China during 2015–2050. Then, the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model was used to predict maize potential yields in Northeast China in 2050, and the spatio-temporal changes of maize potential yields during 2015–2050 were explored. The results were the following. (1) The woodland and grassland decreased by 5.13 million ha and 1.74 million ha respectively in Northeast China from 2015 to 2050, which were mainly converted into unused land. Most of the dryland was converted to paddy field and built-up land. (2) In 2050, the total maize potential production and average potential yield in Northeast China were 218.09 million tonnes and 6880.59 kg/ha. Thirteen prefecture-level cities had maize potential production of more than 7 million tonnes, and 11 cities had maize potential yields of more than 8000 kg/ha. (3) During 2015–2050, the total maize potential production and average yield decreased by around 23 million tonnes and 700 kg/ha in Northeast China, respectively. (4) The maize potential production increased in 15 cities located in the plain areas over the 35 years. The potential yields increased in only nine cities, which were mainly located in the Sanjiang Plain and the southeastern regions. The results highlight the importance of coping with the future land-use changes actively, maintaining the balance of farmland occupation and compensation, improving the cropland quality, and ensuring food security in Northeast China.

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Arctic meltdown: A problematic property rights structure translates into poor resource management

SURG Journal ◽

10.21083/surg.v6i2.2210 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 5-13

Author(s):

Olivia Mancuso

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Resource Management ◽

Property Rights ◽

Natural Resource ◽

Tragedy Of The Commons ◽

The Arctic ◽

Resource Extraction ◽

Open Communication ◽

Natural Resource Extraction ◽

The Commons

As access to the Arctic region continues to grow, many land-use issues have become increasingly prominent. The exposure of shorter shipping routes, unresolved maritime boundaries between the bordering states, and most importantly, the plethora of renewable and non-renewable resources in the region have created a strain on international relations between the states bordering the Arctic. Rising global temperatures have created the promise and opportunity of better access to natural resources in the coming years, raising the likelihood of potentially substantial economic gains to the bordering states. However, the current property rights structure in the Arctic, as governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), dictates that the jurisdiction of each coastal nation state shall not exceed past 200 nautical miles beyond the coastline of each respective state. The goal of this report is to provide an assessment of the basic property rights that govern the Arctic territory in an attempt to illuminate how current and future inefficiencies in natural resource extraction and management can result from a poor property rights structure. The current property rights structure has led to a departure from an efficient allocation of rights and as a result currently operates under an anticommons scenario, while also setting the stage for a tragedy of the commons in the not so distant future. To move away from these sub-optimal outcomes and toward more efficient resource management, open communication, cooperation, and better defined property rights are important components needed to strengthen resource management among Arctic states. Keywords: Arctic land-use and property rights (assessment of); natural resource extraction and management (inefficiencies in); anticommons scenario; tragedy of the commons; Arctic Council; UNCLOS

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Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan di Kawasan Keamanan dan Ketahanan Pangan di Kabupaten Sleman

Jurnal Geografi : Media Informasi Pengembangan dan Profesi Kegeografian ◽

10.15294/jg.v17i1.21327 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 1-6

Author(s):

Farida Afriani Astuti ◽

Herwin Lukito

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Food Security ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Rice Field ◽

Research Study ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Rice Fields ◽

Driving Factor ◽

Annual Productivity ◽

Descriptive Method

Kabupaten Sleman memiliki banyak daya tarik yang memicu terjadinya urbanisasi yang dapat terlihat dari fenomeno perubahan penggunaan lahan . Perubahan penggunaan lahan di Kabupaten Sleman terjadi pada kawasan keamanan dan ketahanan pangan yang terdiri dari Kecamatan Moyudan, Minggir, Sayegan, Godean, Mlati, dan Tempel. Fenomena perubahan penggunaan lahan penting untuk dikontrol dan dikendalikan karena kawasan tersebut memiliki peran penting bagi ketahanan pangan di Kabupaten Sleman. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode deskriptif. Di dalam metode deskriptif terdapat metode survey yang digunakaan untuk mengetahui kondisi eksisting penggunaan lahan di daerah penelitian. Sedangkan untuk perubahan penggunaan lahan pada kawasan keamanan dan ketahanan pangan di Kabupaten Sleman dari Tahun 2012 sampai Tahun 2018 diperoleh dengan metode overlay peta penggunaan lahan yang diperoleh dari Citra Quickbird pada tahun tersebut. Perubahan penggunaan lahan pada kawasan keamanan dan ketahanan pangan Kabupaten Sleman mencapai 57,33 km2 atau 33,93% dari luas total daerah penelitian. Perubahan penggunaan lahan didominasi oleh perubahan lahan sawah menjadi hutan produksi seluas 15,05 km2. Faktor pendorong adanya perubahan penggunaan lahan tersebut adalah produktivitas pertanian sawah yang semakin menurun tiap tahunnya.Sleman Regency has many attractions that trigger urbanization which can be seen from the phenomenon of land-use change. This phenomenon occurs in Sleman Regency particularly in the area of food security and sustainability which is spreading in various districts such as Moyudan, Minggir, Sayegan, Godean, Mlati, and Tempel. The phenomenon of land change must be managed and controlled because the areas have an important role for food security in Sleman Regency. The method used for the research is descriptive method. Survey is a part of descriptive method which used to determine the existing conditions of land use in the research object areas. Whereas for land-use changes in the area of food security and sustainability in Sleman Regency from 2012 to 2018 was obtained with the method of land-use map overlay obtained from Quickbird imagery in those years.Land-use change in the area of food security and sustainability of Sleman Regency reaches 57.33 km2 or 33.93% from the total of research study area. Land-use change is dominated by the diversions of rice fields to forests that reach 15.05 km2. The driving factor for this phenomenon is the decreasing annual productivity of rice field.

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Effect of Climate and Agricultural Land Use Changes on UK Feed Barley Production and Food Security to the 2050s

Land ◽

10.3390/land6040074 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 74 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

David Yawson ◽

Barry Mulholland ◽

Tom Ball ◽

Michael Adu ◽

Sushil Mohan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Food Security ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Agricultural Land Use

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Communal land use and the ‘tragedy of the commons’: Some problems and development perspectives with specific reference to semi‐arid regions of southern Africa

Journal of the Grassland Society of Southern Africa ◽

10.1080/02566702.1990.9648210 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 77-80 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

E.A. Boonzaier ◽

M.T. Hoffman ◽

Fiona M. Archer ◽

A.B. Smith

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Southern Africa ◽

Arid Regions ◽

Tragedy Of The Commons ◽

Specific Reference ◽

Communal Land ◽

The Commons ◽

Semi Arid

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Global Land Use Implications of Dietary Trends: A Tragedy of the Commons

10.1101/195396 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Sarah Rizvi ◽

Chris Pagnutti ◽

Chris T. Bauch ◽

Madhur Anand

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Tragedy Of The Commons ◽

The United States ◽

Dietary Guidelines ◽

United States Department ◽

Department Of Agriculture ◽

Global Food Security ◽

The Commons ◽

Agricultural Land Management

AbstractGlobal food security and agricultural land management represent two urgent and intimately related challenges that humans must face in the coming decades. Here, we quantify the changes in the global agricultural land footprint if the world were to adhere to the dietary guidelines put forth by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), while accounting for the land use change incurred by import/export required to meet those guidelines. We analyze data at country, continent, and global levels. USDA guidelines are viewed as an improvement on the current land-intensive diet of the average American, but despite this our results show that global adherence to USDA guidelines would require up to 1 gigahectare of additional agricultural land--roughly the size of Canada. The results also show a strong divide between Eastern and Western hemispheres. Because countries increasingly import most of their food, meeting USDA guidelines could cause a Tragedy of the Commons, where self-interested actors race to over-exploit the shared resource of global agricultural lands. National dietary guidelines and practices thus need to be coordinated internationally in order to spare our remaining natural lands, in much the same way that countries are coordinating greenhouse gas emissions.

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