In order to achieve the carbon emission reduction targets in Xinjiang, it has become a necessary condition to study the carbon emission of households in small and medium-sized cities in Xinjiang. This paper studies the direct carbon emissions of households (DCEH) in the Ebinur Lake Basin, and based on the extended STIRPAT model, using the 1987–2017 annual time series data of the Ebinur Lake Basin in Xinjiang to analyze the driving factors. The results indicate that DCEH in the Ebinur Lake Basin during the 31 years from 1987 to 2017 has generally increased and the energy structure of DCEH has undergone tremendous changes. The proportion of coal continues to decline, while the proportion of natural gas, gasoline and diesel is growing rapidly. The main positive driving factors affecting its carbon emissions are urbanization, vehicle ownership and GDP per capita, while the secondary driving factor is residents’ year-end savings. Population, carbon intensity and energy consumption structure have negative effects on carbon emissions, of which energy consumption structure is the main factor. In addition, there is an environmental Kuznets curve between DCEH and economic development, but it has not yet reached the inflection point.
Trend Prediction and Decomposed Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province during 2015–2020
