Analysis of Dam Inflow Variation Using the Hydrological Sensitivity Method in a Trans-Boundary River Basin: Case Study in the Korean Peninsula

Water resource planning in a trans-boundary river basin is complex because of different institutional and scientific concerns and it may become increasingly difficult as a consequence of water scarcity caused by climate change. The analysis of discharge variations in a trans-boundary river basin is very important because the results can be key to resolve complex problems including decreased hydropower generation, degraded water quality, and deficient water supplies. Despite its importance, there are relatively few studies dealing with hydrological variation in a trans-boundary river basin. Therefore, this study used the hydrological sensitivity method to identify the discharge variation in the Hwacheon dam upper basin, a representative trans-boundary river basin between South Korea and North Korea. This particular basin was selected because the inflow into the Hwacheon dam in South Korea has decreased significantly after the construction of the Imnam dam in North Korea in 2000. The hydrological sensitivity method is a simple approach to analyze variations in discharge. After collecting 51 years (1967–2017) of rainfall and inflow data, a change point that represents an abrupt change in the time series was detected by using moving average, double-mass curve analysis, Pettitt’s test, and Bayesian change-point analysis. The change point detected by these methods was 1999. The hydrological sensitivity method using five Budyko-based functions was applied to a time series divided into before and after the detected change point. The average decrease after 1999 was 464.91 mm/y (or 1899 × 106 m3/y). Also, the maximum and minimum decreases after 1999 were 515.24 mm/y (or 2105 × 106 m3/y) and 435.32 mm/y (or 1778 × 106 m3/y), respectively. Because of the increase in rainfall and the decrease in inflow since 2000, the values determined in this study are slightly larger than those from conventional studies. Finally, it is suggested that the results from this study can be used effectively to establish reasonable water resource planning in the trans-boundary river basin between South Korea and North Korea.