scholarly journals Multi-Temporal Variabilities of Evapotranspiration Rates and Their Associations with Climate Change and Vegetation Greening in the Gan River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Bai ◽  
Bing Shen ◽  
Xiaoyu Song ◽  
Shuhong Mo ◽  
Lingmei Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Long Term Evolution ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Term Evolution

Understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of evapotranspiration in relation to climate change and human activities is crucial for the sustainability of water resources and ecosystem security, especially in regions strongly influenced by human impact. In this study, a process-based evapotranspiration (ET) model in conjunction with the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) LAI dataset was used to characterize the spatial-temporal pattern of evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2016 over the Gan River basin (GRB), the largest sub-basin of the Poyang Lake catchment, China. The results showed that the actual annual ET (ETa) weakly increased with an annual trend of 0.88 mm year−2 from 1982 to 2016 over the GRB, along with a slight decline in annual potential ET (ETp). On an ecosystem scale; however, only the evergreen broadleaved forest and cropland presented a positive ETa trend, while the rest of the ecosystems demonstrated negative trends of ETa. Both correlation analysis and sensitivity analysis revealed a close relationship between ETa inter-annual variability and energy availability. Attribution analysis illustrated that contributions of climate change and vegetation greening on the ETa trend were −0.48 mm year−2 and 1.36 mm year−2, respectively. Climate change had a negative impact on the ETa trend over the GRB. However, the negative effects have been offset by the positive effects of vegetation greening, which mainly resulted from the large-scale revegetation in forestland and agricultural practices in cropland. It is concluded that large-scale afforestation and agricultural management were the main drivers of the long-term evolution of water consumption over the GRB. This study can improve our understanding of the interactive effects of climate change and human activities on the long-term evolution of water cycles.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Application of an Integrated Catchment-Estuary-Coastal System Model to Assess the Evolution of Inlet-Interrupted Coasts Over the 21st Century

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janaka Bamunawala ◽  
Ali Dastgheib ◽  
Roshanka Ranasinghe ◽  
Ad van der Spek ◽  
Shreedhar Maskey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Long Term Evolution ◽  
Coastline Change ◽  
Sediment Volume ◽  
Coastal Systems ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Study Sites

Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolution of these inlet-interrupted coasts is better assessed by considering the entirety of the Catchment-Estuary-Coastal (CEC) systems, under plausible future scenarios for climate change and increasing pressures due to population growth and human activities. Such a holistic assessment of the long-term evolution of CEC systems can be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, which are also ably quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projections due to their lower simulation times. Here, we develop a novel probabilistic modeling framework to quantify the input-driven uncertainties associated with the evolution of CEC systems over the 21st century. In this new approach, probabilistic assessment of the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is achieved by (1) probabilistically computing the exchange sediment volume between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volumes along the inlet-interrupted coast. The model is applied at three case study sites: Alsea estuary (United States), Dyfi estuary (United Kingdom), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Model results indicate that there are significant uncertainties in projected volume exchange at all the CEC systems (min-max range of 2.0 million cubic meters in 2100 for RCP 8.5), and the uncertainties in these projected volumes illustrate the need for probabilistic modeling approaches to evaluate the long-term evolution of CEC systems. A comparison of 50th percentile probabilistic projections with deterministic estimates shows that the deterministic approach overestimates the sediment volume exchange in 2100 by 15–30% at Alsea and Kalutara estuary systems. Projections of coastline change obtained for the case study sites show that accounting for all key processes governing coastline change along inlet-interrupted coasts in computing coastline change results in projections that are between 20 and 134% greater than the projections that would be obtained if only the Bruun effect were taken into account, underlining the inaccuracies associated with using the Bruun rule at inlet-interrupted coasts.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang ◽  
Wang ◽  
Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Recurrence Period ◽  
The Impact

This study conducted quantitative diagnosis on the impact of climate change and human activities on drought risk. Taking the Kuye river basin (KRB) in China as the research area, we used variation point diagnosis, simulation of precipitation and runoff, drought risk assessment, and attribution quantification. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff sequence of KRB changed significantly after 1979, which was consistent with the introduction of large-scale coal mining; (2) under the same drought recurrence period, the drought duration and severity in the human activity stage were significantly worse than in the natural and simulation stages, indicating that human activities changed the drought risk in this area; and (3) human activities had little impact on drought severity in the short duration and low recurrence period, but had a greater impact in the long duration and high recurrence period. These results provide scientific guidance for the management, prevention, and resistance of drought; and guarantee sustainable economic and social development in the KRB.

scholarly journals Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations

2019 ◽  
Vol 627 ◽  
pp. A11
Author(s):  
I. O. I. Virtanen ◽  
I. I. Virtanen ◽  
A. A. Pevtsov ◽  
L. Bertello ◽  
A. Yeates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Magnetic Fields ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Active Regions ◽  
Long Term Evolution ◽  
Photospheric Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Magnetic Fields ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
Large Scale Field

Aims. The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field has only been regularly observed since the 1970s. The absence of earlier observations severely limits our ability to understand the long-term evolution of solar magnetic fields, especially the polar fields that are important drivers of space weather. Here, we test the possibility to reconstruct the large-scale solar magnetic fields from Ca II K line observations and sunspot magnetic field observations, and to create synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field for times before modern-time magnetographic observations. Methods. We reconstructed active regions from Ca II K line synoptic maps and assigned them magnetic polarities using sunspot magnetic field observations. We used the reconstructed active regions as input in a surface flux transport simulation to produce synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field. We compared the simulated field with the observed field in 1975−1985 in order to test and validate our method. Results. The reconstruction very accurately reproduces the long-term evolution of the large-scale field, including the poleward flux surges and the strength of polar fields. The reconstruction has slightly less emerging flux because a few weak active regions are missing, but it includes the large active regions that are the most important for the large-scale evolution of the field. Although our reconstruction method is very robust, individual reconstructed active regions may be slightly inaccurate in terms of area, total flux, or polarity, which leads to some uncertainty in the simulation. However, due to the randomness of these inaccuracies and the lack of long-term memory in the simulation, these problems do not significantly affect the long-term evolution of the large-scale field.

Hydrogeological simulation of sedimentary basin evolution during a glacial cycle

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Silbermann
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sedimentary Basin ◽  
Long Term Evolution ◽  
Nuclear Waste Repository ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Thermal Problem ◽  
Term Evolution ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Co-authors: Francesco Parisio, Thomas Nagel</strong></p><p>Glaciation cycles affect the long-term evolution of geosystems by crustal deformation, ground freezing and thawing, as well as large-scale hydrogeological changes. In order to properly understand the present and future conditions of potential nuclear waste repository sites, we need to simulate the past history. <br>For this, a sedimentary basin is considered here as a large-scale hydrogeological benchmark study. The long-term evolution during one glacial cycle is simulated using the open-source multi-field finite element code <em>OpenGeoSys</em>. The impact of the glacial loading (weight and induced shear) is taken into account using appropriate time-dependent stress boundary conditions. As a preliminary study, the hydro-mechanically coupled problem and the thermal problem are considered separately. For comparison with a previously published study by Bense et al. (2008), the entire displacement field is prescribed and the groundwater evolution (hydraulic problem) is regarded. Then, the displacement is only prescribed by means of boundary conditions. The impact of different constitutive assumptions on the deformation and hydraulic behavior is analyzed. The thermal problem is used to simulate the evolution of frost bodies in the subsurface beneath and ahead of the glacier.</p><p>V. F. Bense and M. A. Person. Transient hydrodynamics within intercratonic sedimentary basins during glacial cycles. Journal of Geophysical Research,<br>113(F4):F04005, 10 2008.</p>

scholarly journals Polyploids increase overall diversity despite higher turnover than diploids in the Brassicaceae

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1934) ◽  
pp. 20200962
Author(s):  
Cristian Román-Palacios ◽  
Y. Franchesco Molina-Henao ◽  
Michael S. Barker
Keyword(s):  
Chromosome Numbers ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Interspecific Variation ◽  
Similar Rate ◽  
Long Term Evolution ◽  
Tree Of Life ◽  
Evolutionary Significance ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Term Evolution

Although polyploidy is widespread across the plant Tree of Life, its long-term evolutionary significance is still poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of polyploidy in explaining the large-scale evolutionary patterns within angiosperms by focusing on a single family exhibiting extensive interspecific variation in chromosome numbers. We inferred ploidy from haploid chromosome numbers for 80% of species in the most comprehensive species-level chronogram for the Brassicaceae. After evaluating a total of 94 phylogenetic models of diversification, we found that ploidy influences diversification rates across the Brassicaceae. We also found that despite diversifying at a similar rate to diploids, polyploids have played a significant role in driving present-day differences in species richness among clades. Overall, in addition to highlighting the complexity in the evolutionary consequences of polyploidy, our results suggest that rare successful polyploids persist while significantly contributing to the long-term evolution of clades. Our findings further indicate that polyploidy has played a major role in driving the long-term evolution of the Brassicaceae and highlight the potential of polyploidy in shaping present-day diversity patterns across the plant Tree of Life.

Evaluation of changes in streamflow and the underlying causes: a perspective of an upstream catchment in Haihe River basin, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 241-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sicheng Wan ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Guoqing Wang ◽  
Lu Zhang ◽  
Lei Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Changing Environment ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
Hydrological Simulation

Abstract Investigating long-term streamflow changes pattern and its response to climate and human factors is of crucial significance to understand the hydrological cycle under a changing environment. Caijiazhuang catchment located within Haihe River basin, north China was selected as the study area. To detect the trend and changes in streamflow, Mann–Kendall test was used. Elasticity and hydrological simulation methods were applied to assess the relative contribution of climate change and human activities on streamflow variability under three periods (baseline (1958–1977), impact I (1978–1997), and impact II (1998–2012)). The long-term hydro-climatic variables experienced substantial changes during the whole study period, and 1977 was the breaking year of streamflow change. Attribution analysis using the two methods showed consistent results: for impact I, climate change impacts explained 65% and 68% of streamflow reduction; however for impact II, it only represented 49% and 56% of streamflow reduction. This result indicated that human activities were intensifying over time. Various types of human activities presented significant effects on streamflow regimes including volumes and hydrographs. The findings of this paper could provide better insights of hydrological evolution and would thus assist water managers in sustainably managing and providing water use strategies under a changing environment.

scholarly journals Assessing Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Streamflow and Sediment Discharge in the Ganjiang River Basin (1964–2013)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo ◽  
Mu ◽  
Hu ◽  
Gao ◽  
Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Jiangxi Province ◽  
Sediment Discharge ◽  
Change Environment ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Ganjiang River Basin

National large-scale soil and water conservation controls on the Gangjiang River basin have been documented, but the effect of governance on regional watershed hydrology and how the main driving factors act have not been systematically studied yet. To do this, this study evaluated changing trends and detected transition years for both streamflow and sediment discharge using long-term historical records at seven hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River basin over the past 50 years. The double mass curve (DMC) method was used to quantify the effects of both climate change and human activities on hydrological regime shifts. The results showed that the distributions of precipitation, streamflow, and sediment discharge within a year are extremely uneven and mainly concentrated in the flood season of Jiangxi Province. None of the stations showed significant trends over time for either annual precipitation or streamflow, while the annual sediment discharge at most stations decreased significantly over time. The estimation of sediment discharge via DMC indicated that after the transition years, there were rapid reductions in sediment discharge at all hydrological stations, and the average decline degree of midstream and downstream were much larger than that of upstream. Human activities, especially the increase of vegetation cover and construction of large and medium-sized reservoirs, provided a significantly greater contribution to the reduction of sediment discharge than did precipitation changes. As a case study of river evolution under global change environment, this study could provide scientific basis for the control of soil erosion and the management of water resources in Ganjiang River, as well as for the related research of Poyang Lake and the Yangtze River basin of China.

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