Probabilistic Application of an Integrated Catchment-Estuary-Coastal System Model to Assess the Evolution of Inlet-Interrupted Coasts Over the 21st Century

Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolution of these inlet-interrupted coasts is better assessed by considering the entirety of the Catchment-Estuary-Coastal (CEC) systems, under plausible future scenarios for climate change and increasing pressures due to population growth and human activities. Such a holistic assessment of the long-term evolution of CEC systems can be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, which are also ably quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projections due to their lower simulation times. Here, we develop a novel probabilistic modeling framework to quantify the input-driven uncertainties associated with the evolution of CEC systems over the 21st century. In this new approach, probabilistic assessment of the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts is achieved by (1) probabilistically computing the exchange sediment volume between the inlet-estuary system and its adjacent coast, and (2) distributing the computed sediment volumes along the inlet-interrupted coast. The model is applied at three case study sites: Alsea estuary (United States), Dyfi estuary (United Kingdom), and Kalutara inlet (Sri Lanka). Model results indicate that there are significant uncertainties in projected volume exchange at all the CEC systems (min-max range of 2.0 million cubic meters in 2100 for RCP 8.5), and the uncertainties in these projected volumes illustrate the need for probabilistic modeling approaches to evaluate the long-term evolution of CEC systems. A comparison of 50th percentile probabilistic projections with deterministic estimates shows that the deterministic approach overestimates the sediment volume exchange in 2100 by 15–30% at Alsea and Kalutara estuary systems. Projections of coastline change obtained for the case study sites show that accounting for all key processes governing coastline change along inlet-interrupted coasts in computing coastline change results in projections that are between 20 and 134% greater than the projections that would be obtained if only the Bruun effect were taken into account, underlining the inaccuracies associated with using the Bruun rule at inlet-interrupted coasts.

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Multi-Temporal Variabilities of Evapotranspiration Rates and Their Associations with Climate Change and Vegetation Greening in the Gan River Basin, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w11122568 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 2568 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Meng Bai ◽

Bing Shen ◽

Xiaoyu Song ◽

Shuhong Mo ◽

Lingmei Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Human Activities ◽

Large Scale ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Long Term Evolution ◽

Interactive Effects ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Term Evolution

Understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of evapotranspiration in relation to climate change and human activities is crucial for the sustainability of water resources and ecosystem security, especially in regions strongly influenced by human impact. In this study, a process-based evapotranspiration (ET) model in conjunction with the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) LAI dataset was used to characterize the spatial-temporal pattern of evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2016 over the Gan River basin (GRB), the largest sub-basin of the Poyang Lake catchment, China. The results showed that the actual annual ET (ETa) weakly increased with an annual trend of 0.88 mm year−2 from 1982 to 2016 over the GRB, along with a slight decline in annual potential ET (ETp). On an ecosystem scale; however, only the evergreen broadleaved forest and cropland presented a positive ETa trend, while the rest of the ecosystems demonstrated negative trends of ETa. Both correlation analysis and sensitivity analysis revealed a close relationship between ETa inter-annual variability and energy availability. Attribution analysis illustrated that contributions of climate change and vegetation greening on the ETa trend were −0.48 mm year−2 and 1.36 mm year−2, respectively. Climate change had a negative impact on the ETa trend over the GRB. However, the negative effects have been offset by the positive effects of vegetation greening, which mainly resulted from the large-scale revegetation in forestland and agricultural practices in cropland. It is concluded that large-scale afforestation and agricultural management were the main drivers of the long-term evolution of water consumption over the GRB. This study can improve our understanding of the interactive effects of climate change and human activities on the long-term evolution of water cycles.

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CO-EVOLVING BUSINESS MODELS: A CASE STUDY WITH THE INTERNET SERVICE PROVIDER (ISP) INDUSTRY

New Mathematics and Natural Computation ◽

10.1142/s1793005705000202 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 01 (03) ◽

pp. 359-369

Author(s):

IAN FENTY ◽

ERIC BONABEAU ◽

JUERGEN BRANKE

Keyword(s):

Service Provider ◽

Business Models ◽

Long Term Evolution ◽

Internet Service Provider ◽

Entire Population ◽

The Internet ◽

Internet Service ◽

Term Evolution

In this paper, co-evolution is used to examine the long-term evolution of business models in an industry. Two types of co-evolution are used: synchronous, whereby the entire population of business models is replaced with a new population at each generation, and asynchronous, whereby only one individual is replaced.

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Assessment of Long-Term Evolution of Groundwater Hydrochemical Characteristics Using Multiple Approaches: A Case Study in Cangzhou, Northern China

Water ◽

10.3390/w7031109 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 7 (12) ◽

pp. 1109-1128 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Wei Li ◽

Ming-Yu Wang ◽

Li-Ya Liu ◽

Yan Yan

Keyword(s):

Northern China ◽

Long Term Evolution ◽

Hydrochemical Characteristics ◽

Term Evolution

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ICONE19-43567 Development of a Methodology for the Characterisation of the Long-term Geosphere Evolution : (2) Estimation of the Long-term Evolution of Groundwater Flow Conditions in a Tono Area Case Study

The Proceedings of the International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE) ◽

10.1299/jsmeicone.2011.19._icone1943_231 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2011.19 (0) ◽

pp. _ICONE1943-_ICONE1943

Author(s):

Hiroshi Kosaka ◽

Hiromitsu Saegusa ◽

Ken-ichi Yasue ◽

Tomohiro Kusano ◽

Hironori Onoe

Keyword(s):

Groundwater Flow ◽

Long Term Evolution ◽

Flow Conditions ◽

Term Evolution

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Long-term evolution of the subsidiary’s role: a qualitative perspective on a subsidiary located in Poland

International Journal of Management and Economics ◽

10.2478/ijme-2020-0001 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 56 (1) ◽

pp. 79-95

Author(s):

Marlena Dzikowska ◽

Marian Gorynia

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

Automotive Industry ◽

Long Term Evolution ◽

Foreign Subsidiary ◽

Foreign Subsidiaries ◽

Empirical Justification ◽

Term Evolution ◽

Functional Areas

Abstract So far, very little attention has been paid to the roles of foreign subsidiaries located in Poland and if or how these roles have evolved. Simultaneously, there exists strong empirical justification for assuming these roles have been evolving over the years. Through a literature review and empirical case study of a foreign subsidiary located in Poland, this study analyzes the evolution of the subsidiary role and indicates its relations with groups of external and internal determinants. The case study examines a 10-year period of operations of a foreign subsidiary active in the automotive industry. The results indicate that the evolution of the subsidiary role encompasses factors such as markets served, functional areas of operations, and complexity of operations. The presented case study describes the complex relations among factors related to the subsidiary, HQ, and environment concerning the evolution of the subsidiary role.

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