scholarly journals A Framework to Assess the Reliability of a Multipurpose Reservoir under Uncertainty in Land Use

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 287
Author(s):  
Anh Nguyen ◽  
Thomas A. Cochrane ◽  
Markus Pahlow
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Supply Reliability

Socioeconomic development in watersheds lead to land-use changes, which can alter water and sediment inflows into reservoirs, leading to uncertainty in water supply reliability. A modelling framework coupling the Soil and Water Assessments Tool (SWAT) and the @RISK genetic algorithm optimisation tool was developed to optimise water allocation and estimate water supply reliability under uncertainty in future land-use. The multi-purpose Nuicoc reservoir in Vietnam was used as a case study. Modelling results showed that an expansion of the urban areas by 10% and conversion of 5% of the forest to agricultural areas produced the highest water releases for downstream demands of all simulated scenarios, with 5 Mcm/year greater water releases than the baseline for the case where sedimentation was not considered. However, when sedimentation was considered, it generated the greatest decrease in water releases, with 6.25 Mcm/year less than the baseline. Additionally, it was determined that spatial distribution of land-use significantly affect sediment inflows into the reservoir, highlighting the importance of targeted sediment management. This demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed framework for decision-makers in assessing the impact of possible land-use changes on the reservoir operation.

scholarly journals Global assessment of land cover changes and rural-urban interface in Portugal

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marj Tonini ◽  
Joana Parente ◽  
Mario Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Global Assessment ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The wildland-/rural-urban interface (WUI/RUI) is a particularly important aspect of the fire regime. In Mediterranean basin most of the fires in this pyro region are caused by humans and the risk and consequences are particularly high due to the close proximity to population, human infrastructures and urban areas. Population increase, urban growth and the rapid changes in land use incurred in Europe over the last 30 years has been unprecedented, especially nearby the metropolitan areas, and some of these trends are expected to continue. Associated to high socioeconomic development, Portugal experienced in the last decades significant land cover/land use changes (LCLUC), population dynamics and demographic trends in response to migration, rural abandonment, and ageing of rural population. This study aims to assess the evolution of RUI in Portugal, from 1990 to 2012, based on LCLUC providing also a quantitative characterization of forest fires dynamics in relation to the burnt area. Obtained results disclose important LCLUC which spatial distribution is far from uniform within the territory. A significant increase in artificial surfaces is registered nearby the main metropolitan communities of the northwest and littoral-central and southern regions, whilst the abandonment of agricultural land nearby the inland urban areas leads to an increase of uncultivated semi-natural and forest areas. Within agricultural areas, heterogeneous patches suffered the greatest changes and are the main contributors to the increase of urban areas. Moreover these are among the LCLU classes with higher burnt area, reasons why heterogeneous agricultural areas have been included in the definition of RUI. Finally, the mapped RUI’s area, burnt area and burnt area within RUI allow to conclude that, form 1990 to 2012 in Portugal, RUI increased more than two thirds and total burnt area decreased one third. Nevertheless, burnt area within RUI doubled, which emphasize the significance of RUI for land and fire managers. This research provides a first quantitative global assessment of RUI in Portugal and presents an innovative analysis on the impact of land use changes on burnt areas.

scholarly journals Rural-Spatial Restructuring Promoted by Land-Use Transitions: A Case Study of Zhulin Town in Central China

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 234
Author(s):  
Dong Han ◽  
Jiajun Qiao ◽  
Qiankun Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Rural Development ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Central China ◽  
Rural Space ◽  
Spatial Restructuring ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Impact

Rural-spatial restructuring involves the spatial mapping of the current rural development process. The transformation of land-use morphologies, directly or indirectly, affects the practice of rural restructuring. Analyzing this process in terms of the dominant morphology and recessive morphology is helpful for better grasping the overall picture of rural-spatial restructuring. Accordingly, this paper took Zhulin Town in Central China as a case study area. We propose a method for studying rural-spatial restructuring based on changes in the dominant and recessive morphologies of land use. This process was realized by analyzing the distribution and functional suitability of ecological-production-living (EPL) spaces based on land-use types, data on land-use changes obtained over a 30-year observation period, and in-depth research. We found that examining rural-spatial restructuring by matching the distribution of EPL spaces with their functional suitability can help to avoid the misjudgment of the restructuring mode caused by the consideration of the distribution and structural changes in quantity, facilitating greater understanding of the process of rural-spatial restructuring. Although the distribution and quantitative structure of Zhulin’s EPL spaces have changed to differing degrees, ecological- and agricultural-production spaces still predominate, and their functional suitability has gradually increased. The spatial distribution and functional suitability of Zhulin are generally well matched, with 62.5% of the matched types being high-quality growth, and the positive effect of Zhulin’s spatial restructuring over the past 30 years has been significant. We found that combining changes in EPL spatial area and quantity as well as changes in functional suitability is helpful in better understanding the impact of the national macro-policy shift regarding rural development. Sustaining the positive spatial restructuring of rural space requires the timely adjustment of local actors in accordance with the needs of macroeconomic and social development, and a good rural-governance model is essential.

scholarly journals Link between Land Use and Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Johanna Sörensen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Property Owners ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
The Impact

The densification of urban areas has raised concerns over increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might increase under the impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves the conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas, causing lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intensity rainfall exceeds the capacity of an urban drainage system, the runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (i.e., 20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk as it relates to land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from drainage systems; these data serve as a proxy of flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis was placed on examining how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relate to flood risk. The relationships are defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies whereby land use change affects flood risk.

scholarly journals Prospects of Forage Production in Northern Regions under Climate and Land-Use Changes: A Case-Study of a Dairy Farm in Newfoundland, Canada

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Cordeiro ◽  
Alan Rotz ◽  
Roland Kroebel ◽  
Karen Beauchemin ◽  
Derek Hunt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Dairy Farm ◽  
Corn Silage ◽  
Total Production ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Cropland Area ◽  
The Impact

Forage production in northern latitudes is challenging and uncertain in the future. In this case-study, the integrated farm system model (IFSM) was used to assess the impact of climate change and cropland expansion scenarios on forage production in a dairy farm in Newfoundland, Canada. Climatic projections indicated increases in temperature in the recent past (1990–2016) and under any future climate (2020–2079), thus enhancing agronomic performance. Temperature increases ranged from 2.8 °C to 5.4 °C in winter and from 3.2 °C to 6.4 °C in spring. Small precipitation increases (<10%) create narrower time windows to perform farm operations in the already stringent condition of excess moisture in the region. Results of land use scenarios including expansions of 20, 30, and 40% in cropland area, out of which 5% was dedicated to corn silage and the remainder to grass-legume mixtures, indicated increased yield and total production. Improvements in grass-legume yield ranged from 8% to 52%. The full range of production increases ranged from 11% to 105%. Increments in corn silage yield ranged from 28% to 69%. Total farm corn silage production increases ranged from 29% to 77%. An attainable cropland expansion of 20% would enable the farm to become self-sufficient in forage production under any climate scenario.

Urban Land Use Changes by the Integration of Remote Sensing, GIS, and Dynamics Modeling

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 4645-4649
Author(s):  
Jia Hua Zhang ◽  
Cui Hao ◽  
Feng Mei Yao
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Model ◽  
The Impact

We developed an approach to assess urban land use changes that incorporates socio-economic and environmental factors with multinomial logistic model, remote sensing data and GIS, and to quantify the impact of macro variables on land use of urban areas for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010 in Binhai New Area, China. The Markov transition matrix was designed to integrate with multinomial logistic model to illustrate and visualize the predicted land use surface. The multinomial logistic model was evaluated by means of Likelihood ratio test and Pseudo R-Square and showed a relatively good simulation. The prediction map of 2010 showed accurate rates 78.54%, 57.25% and 70.38%, respectively.

scholarly journals Temporal changes in greenspace in a highly urbanized region

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 763-766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Dallimer ◽  
Zhiyao Tang ◽  
Peter R. Bibby ◽  
Paul Brindley ◽  
Kevin J. Gaston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
National Level ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Dramatic Shift ◽  
Urbanized Region ◽  
The Impact

The majority of the world's population now lives in towns and cities, and urban areas are expanding faster than any other land-use type. In response to this phenomenon, two opposing arguments have emerged: whether cities should ‘sprawl’ into the wider countryside, or ‘densify’ through the development of existing urban greenspace. However, these greenspaces are increasingly recognized as being central to the amelioration of urban living conditions, supporting biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision. Taking the highly urbanized region of England as a case study, we use data from a variety of sources to investigate the impact of national-level planning policy on temporal patterns in the extent of greenspace in cities. Between 1991 and 2006, greenspace showed a net increase in all but one of 13 cities. However, the majority of this gain occurred prior to 2001, and greenspace has subsequently declined in nine cities. Such a dramatic shift in land use coincides with policy reforms in 2000, which favoured densification. Here, we illustrate the dynamic and policy-responsive nature of urban land use, thereby highlighting the need for a detailed investigation of the trade-offs associated with different mechanisms of urban densification to optimize and secure the diverse benefits associated with greenspaces.

scholarly journals Detecting and predicting the impact of land use changes on groundwater quality, a case study in Northern Kelantan, Malaysia

2017 ◽  
Vol 599-600 ◽  
pp. 844-853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tahoora Sheikhy Narany ◽  
Ahmad Zaharin Aris ◽  
Anuar Sefie ◽  
Saskia Keesstra
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Groundwater Quality ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of Land Use and Occupation on the Biophysical Variables of the Cerrado Biome in Southwest Goiano, Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 399
Author(s):  
Victor H. Moraes ◽  
Pedro R. Giongo ◽  
Marcio Mesquita ◽  
Thomas J. Cavalcante ◽  
Matheus V. A. Ventura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Natural Vegetation ◽  
Agricultural Crops ◽  
Quantitative Classification ◽  
The Impact

The change in the use of natural vegetation by annual or perennial crops, sugarcane and fast-growing forests causes changes in the biophysical variables, and these changes can be monitored by remote sensing. The objective of this work was to evaluate, on a temporal scale, the impacts of land use changes on biophysical variables in the county of Santa Helena de Goias-Goias/Brazil. Between the years of 2000 to 2015 areas were identified for agricultural crops 1 (annual crops), water, agricultural crops 2 (sugarcane), natural vegetation, pasture and urban areas. The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer) sensor products were selected for study: MOD11A2-Surface temperature; MOD16A2-Real evapotranspiration, MOD13Q1-Enhanced Vegetation Index and rainfall data from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). The geographic coordinates referring to the land uses were inserted in the LAPIG platform, searching the information of the biophysical variables referring to the selected pixel. The impact of land use change was evaluated by calculating the weighted average through the quantitative classification of the areas. It is concluded for the period of study that the index of average vegetation of the county had increase. There was an increase in the evapotranspiration volume of the county from 28% from 2000 to 2013 and the average surface temperature of the county showed a reduction of 2 &deg;C in the period from 2000 to 2015.

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