scholarly journals Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1229
Author(s):  
Adam Perz ◽  
Leszek Sobkowiak ◽  
Dariusz Wrzesiński

On the basis of daily precipitation and discharges recorded in 1974–2013 relations between precipitation and runoff in the Kłodzka Valley (KV) in south-western Poland were analyzed. The degree of synchronicity between them was determined using the bivariate Archimedean copulas. This study aims at identifying and then describe in a probabilistic way the precipitation and runoff relations in the area playing an important role in the formation of water resources, but also particularly exposed to flooding. It was found that isolines of the synchronous occurrence of precipitation and total runoff in the Nysa Kłodzka catchment controlled by gauge Kłodzko had a zonal distribution, with the synchronicity values decreasing from south-east to north-west of the study area. This proves that its eastern part is more hydrologically active, compared to the western part, and as such it determines the amount of water resources of the study area. The decrease in synchronicity is influenced by the type and spatial distribution of precipitation, the structure of water supply, and the geological structure of the study area. Moreover, probabilistic methods applied in this research differ from those used in previous research on the hydrology of KV, as we propose using the copula functions. The method presented can be used to evaluate the availability of water resources in areas playing a key role in their formation on different scales.

Author(s):  
Mir Emad Mousavi ◽  
Sanjeev Upadhye ◽  
Vishnu Vijayaraghavan ◽  
Kevin Haverty

Probabilistic methods can improve the reliability of fatigue damage evaluation in top tensioned (production) risers because they tend to provide less biased estimators on their safety, which can be used for more reliable decision making concerning their design. Such methods consider the collective impact of uncertainties in the riser system, which is not accurately assessed in conventional fatigue analysis. The large factors of safety that are commonly used in deterministic-based fatigue damage assessment tend to assure the high safety of the design, still they are generic factors that do not take advantage of available data for accurate quantification of system safety. This paper presents a probabilistic method toward fatigue reliability and integrity analysis of TTR systems. By using rules of probability, a simplified method is developed to estimate the probability of failure of the TTR system in its lifetime, considering the uncertainties with the Palmgren-Miner rule, the cyclic loads, and the fatigue strength of the components, and other analysis approximations. The method is then used for a comparative assessment on the fatigue reliability of the TTR components and calculating its fatigue Integrity Index. The method is illustrated in a case study and is used to provide recommendations that could possibly improve the TTR fatigue design by reducing its cost, increasing its safety, and maximizing its integrity.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia-Silvia Asimopolos ◽  
Laurentiu Asimopolos

<p>The results of the magnetoteluric investigations carried out along the profiles are presented in the form of sections in which the variations of the different parameters, the 2-D modeling, as well as the inversions.</p><p>The results of the geophysical researches (magnetotellurics, gravity, geomagnetics) obtained were aimed at obtaining a unitary image on the deep geological structure in the investigated area. A number of information was obtained regarding such as:</p><ul><li>Determination of the thickness of the package of formations belonging to the post-tectogenetic sedimentary cover of the Transylvanian Depression; sedimentary sedimentary cover, conductive, with a maximum thickness of approximately 4000 m in the Pannonian Depression;</li> <li>Contouring of the Tethysian Major Suture (near the town of Alba Iulia in the Transylvanian Basin), represented by the Transylvanian nappes system (ofiolitic complex and sedimentary formations), with resistivities of about 500 Ohm*m, which separates two blocks with continental crust of different thicknesses (22- 27 km for Internal Dacids and 32-36 km for Median Dacids);</li> <li>Highlighting the change of nappes systems belonging to the Transylvanians, with a wide development both to the north (Căpâlnas-Techereu nappes and the nappes of Groşi and Criş), as well as to the east (the ophiolite complex and sedimentary cover), over the Biharia nappes system, respectively Central-Eastern Carpathian nappes; extension of the Codru and Biharia - Arieşeni nappes, the last with higher resistivities (200 Ohm*m);</li> <li>Highlighting the transcrustal fault that marks the contact between the Inner Dacides and the Median ones;</li> <li>Individualization at the level of the lower crust of a transition zone; significant decrease of resistivity, as a consequence of the presence of the fluids in the transition zone, from the pressure in the pores from lithostatic type to the hydrostatic type (occurs at depths of 22 - 30 km and at temperatures of 350º - 400º C).</li> </ul><p>The electromagnetic data reflect the anomalies of electrical conductivity in a sensitive way, but due to the many causes that can generate them, a careful analysis of the particularities existing for each case, especially the superficial ones, was necessary.</p><p>The correlation of the all the information provided in sections (resistivity, phases, density, magnetic susceptibility), inversions, modeling, lead to the validation of the model.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masoomeh Dehkordi ◽  
Alamdar Alian

Humans are always lenders to their surroundings which makes it possible to create habitable environments and create habitat patterns that fit the surrounding environment. In this research, settlement patterns of Iron Age III sites in the west and northwest of Isfahan was studied via GIS. The area studied is one of the most important but unknown areas of archaeological research due to its location in the center of the Iranian plateau and a link between the north-west and the south-west of the country. The environmental characteristics of the studied area have attracted the attention of humans since ancient times. Therefore, it was considered necessary to conduct archaeological excavations. To achieve this goal, the area was first studied archaeologically. As a result of this survey, approximately 50 ancient sites were identified which included the statistical population used for analysis. The effect of environmental variables on the distribution of settlements in the study area was investigated including altitude, slope (percentage and direction), climate, geological structure, distances and proximity to water resources, distance to and land use, and the proximity to communication paths. Through analytical-descriptive method, the factors affecting the formation and distribution of the establishment patterns of the period in question was studied. After analyzing the information and maps, the results indicated that among all the factors, three environmental factors were the most important in the formation of ancient settlements of the Iron Age III era in the west and northwest of Isfahan: factors relating to water resources, proximity to communication paths, and slope percentage and direction.


Author(s):  
Ahad Nejad Ebrahimi ◽  
Farnaz Nazarzadeh ◽  
Elnaz Nazarzadeh

Throughout history, gardens and garden designing has been in the attention of Persian architects who had special expertise in the construction of gardens. The appearance of Islam and allegories of paradise taken from that in Koran and Saints’ sayings gave spirituality to garden construction. Climate conditions have also had an important role in this respect but little research has been done about it and most of the investigations have referred to spiritual aspects and forms of garden. The cold and dry climate that has enveloped parts of West and North West of Iran has many gardens with different forms and functions, which have not been paid much attention to by studies done so far. The aim of this paper is to identify the features and specifications of cold and dry climate gardens with an emphasis on Tabriz’s Gardens.  Due to its natural and strategic situation, Tabriz has always been in the attention of governments throughout history; travellers and tourists have mentioned Tabriz as a city that has beautiful gardens. But, the earthquakes and wars have left no remains of those beautiful gardens. This investigation, by a comparative study of the climates in Iran and the effect of those climates on the formation of gardens and garden design, tries to identify the features and characteristics of gardens in cold and dry climate. The method of study is interpretive-historical on the basis of written documents and historic features and field study of existing gardens in this climate. The results show that, with respect to natural substrate, vegetation, the form of water supply, and the general form of the garden; gardens in dry and cold climate are different from gardens in other climates.


1997 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Konradsen ◽  
M. Chimbari ◽  
P. Furu ◽  
M. H. Birley ◽  
N. Ø. Christensen

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