scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability in Zacatecas, Mexico

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1431
Author(s):  
David Ortega-Gaucin ◽  
Jesús A. Ceballos-Tavares ◽  
Alejandro Ordoñez Sánchez ◽  
Heidy V. Castellano-Bahena
Keyword(s):  
Risk Index ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
The State ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
The World ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Drought is one of the major threats to water and food security in many regions around the world. The present study focuses on the evaluation of agricultural drought risk from an integrated perspective, that is, emphasizing the combined role of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to drought. For this purpose, we used the Mexican state of Zacatecas as a case study. This state is one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of agricultural drought in the country. The proposed method includes three stages: first, we analyzed the risk of agricultural drought at the municipal scale using the FAO Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) in its country version (Country-Level ASIS) and also determined a Drought Hazard Index (DHI). Subsequently, we conducted a municipal assessment of exposure and vulnerability to drought based on a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators, which we combined using an analytical procedure to generate the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) and the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI). Finally, we determined a Drought Risk Index (DRI) based on a weighted addition of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Results showed that 32% of the state’s municipalities are at high and very high risk of agricultural drought; these municipalities are located mainly in the center and north of the state, where 75.8% of agriculture is rainfed, 63.6% of production units are located, and 67.4% of the state’s population depends on agricultural activity. These results are in general agreement with those obtained by other studies analyzing drought in the state of Zacatecas using different meteorological drought indices, and the results are also largely in line with official data on agricultural surfaces affected by drought in this state. The generated maps can help stakeholders and public policymakers to guide investments and actions aimed at reducing vulnerability to and risk of agricultural drought. The method described can also be applied to other Mexican states or adapted for use in other states or countries around the world.

scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Evaluation Based on an Optimized Comprehensive Index System

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menghua Deng ◽  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
Wenjuan Niu
Keyword(s):  
Index System ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
State Response ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Pressure State

In this study, a new optimized comprehensive drought index system (OCDIS) was developed based on pressure-state-response (PSR) and random forest (RF). Then the pressure, state, response, and integrated agricultural drought risk were evaluated according to the synthetic-weight variable fuzzy set (SW-VFS) model. Finally, the countermeasures in terms of pressure, state, and response were discussed. The proposed index has been implemented in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China. The results showed that of the 10 indices included in the OCDIS, the four most important indices for agricultural drought risk management are reservoir storage capacity, precipitation anomaly percentage, soil moisture, and per capita annual income. The pressure risk and response risk of Malong are relatively higher than other counties. The integrated results indicated that most counties of Quijng have moderate drought risk. The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing. The proposed model provides a scientific and objective way to develop the risk index system of agricultural drought. This study can potentially assist government agencies with information on the most important drought impacts and provide the basis for science-informed decision-making.

scholarly journals Why well yield matters for managing agricultural drought risk

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 11-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Foster ◽  
N. Brozović ◽  
A.P. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Well Yield ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Copula-based agricultural drought risk of rainfed cropping systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. 105689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreia F.S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Patrícia Páscoa
Keyword(s):  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment by Using Drought Hazard and Vulnerability Indexes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Dabanli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
Hazard Vulnerability ◽  
Composite Risk

Abstract. Drought has multiple impacts on socioeconomic sectors and it is expected to increase in the coming years due to non-stationary nature of climate variability and change. Here, we investigated drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk based on hydro-meteorological and actual socio-economic data for provinces of Turkey. Although, drought vulnerability and risk assessment are essential parts of drought phenomenon, so far, lack of proper integrated drought risk assessment in Turkey (and elsewhere) has led to higher socio-economic impacts. Firstly, the Drought Hazard Index (DHI) is derived based on the probability occurrences of drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to facilitate the understanding of drought phenomenon. Secondly, the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is calculated by utilizing four socio-economic indicators to quantify drought impact on society. Finally, the Drought Risk Index (DRI) is obtained by multiplying DHI and DVI for provinces of Turkey to highlight the relative importance of hazard and vulnerability assessment for drought risk management. A set of drought hazard, vulnerability, and composite risk maps were then developed. The outputs of analysis reveal that among 81 administrative provinces in Turkey, 73 provinces are exposed to the low drought risk (0 

scholarly journals Corrigendum: Integrating Behavioral Theories in Agent-Based Models for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teun Schrieks ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Marthe Wens ◽  
Toon Haer ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Behavioral Theories ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

scholarly journals Regional Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Method Based on Risk Transforming Process

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanqi WEI ◽  
Yi CUI ◽  
Juliang JIN ◽  
Hiroshi ISHIDAIRA ◽  
Haichao LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Curves ◽  
Drought Risk Management

Abstract Drought risk management can effectively reduce drought losses and improve drought resistance capability, of which drought risk assessment is the core issue. This study evaluated the agricultural drought risk in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province in China by the approach of constructing drought loss risk curves and risk distribution maps. The results showed that: 1) The drought events that occurred in northern regions (Huaibei and Suzhou) were with the characteristics of high-frequency and low-intensity, while in southern regions (Huainan and Bengbu), the occurring characteristics were low-frequency, high-intensity, and long-duration. 2) Without irrigation, Fuyang was the high-risk region with more than 80% potential yield loss rate, while Huainan was the relatively low-risk area with a potential yield loss of 50%. 3) Irrigation had a significant effect on reducing drought risk loss, while the efficiency was influenced by the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation. The irrigation scheme in study area still remains to be optimized based on the characteristics of precipitation and crop growth. This study established and practiced a quantitative framework for regional drought risk assessment by creating drought risk curves and risk maps, which have significant value in improving the regional agricultural drought risk management level.

Research on Agricultural Drought Risk Measurement Based on Bayes Hybrid Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 3983-3987
Author(s):  
Jianping Wu ◽  
Xiaowen Liu ◽  
Yaoping Tang ◽  
Hongfei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Risk Measurement ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agricultural Economy ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Risk Management

The development of agricultural economy depends to a large extent on the drought. It is necessary to accurately analyze the current drought risk in order to formulate a more reliable drought risk management strategy and reduce the impact of disasters on the development of the agricultural economy. In order to improve the level of drought risk measurement, this paper selects VaR as the measurement tool, and proposes a mixed distribution model research. Use this model to fit the distribution of drought loss rate, and measure the drought risk by estimating VaR. Among them, the mixed distribution model is mainly composed of two parts, namely GPD and conventional distribution. The former is used to characterize the risk tail. Considering the difficulty of selecting the GPD distribution threshold, this paper introduces the Bayes calculation method to optimize, forming a Bayes hybrid model, including Norm-GDP model and Gamma-GPD model. The application results show that the fitting results generated by the Norm-GDP model application have a better distribution of drought loss rates, and the VaR estimation results are more reliable. Taking 10-year, 20-year, and 100-year disasters as examples, the estimated drought loss rate is 9.46%, 11.05%, and 30.22%. The generation of these metric values can provide a reference for my country’s agricultural drought risk management.

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