scholarly journals Evaluation of Streamflow under Climate Change in the Zambezi River Basin of Southern Africa

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3114
Author(s):  
George Z. Ndhlovu ◽  
Yali E. Woyessa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Annual Streamflow ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Zambezi River Basin ◽  
Zambezi River

The Zambezi River basin is the fourth largest basin in Africa and the largest in southern Africa, comprising 5% of the total area of the continent. The basin is extremely vulnerable to climate change effects due to its highly variable climate. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on streamflow in one of the sub-basins, the Kabombo basin. The multi- global climate model projections were used as input to the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model for simulation of streamflow under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The model predicted an annual streamflow increase of 85% and 6% for high uncertainty and strong consensus, respectively, under RCP 8.5. The model predicted a slightly reduced annual streamflow of less than 3% under RCP 4.5. The majority of simulations indicated that intra-annual and inter-annual streamflow variability will increase in the future for RCP 8.5 while it will reduce for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The predicted high and moderate rise in streamflow for RCP 8.5 suggests the need for adaptation plans and mitigation strategies. In contrast, the streamflow predicted for RCP 4.5 indicates that there may be a need to review the current management strategies of the water resources in the basin.

scholarly journals An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Fant ◽  
Yohannes Gebretsadik ◽  
Alyssa McCluskey ◽  
Kenneth Strzepek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Zambezi River Basin ◽  
Zambezi River

scholarly journals Climate change and developing country interests: Cases from the Zambezi River Basin

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Channing Arndt ◽  
Paul S. Chinowsky ◽  
Charles Fant ◽  
Yohannes Gebretsadik ◽  
James E. Neumann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Zambezi River Basin ◽  
Zambezi River

scholarly journals Avoiding the unintended consequences of climate change mitigation for African river basins

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Castelletti ◽  
Matteo Giuliani ◽  
Jonathan Lamontagne ◽  
Mohamad Hejazi ◽  
Patrick Reed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Zambezi River Basin ◽  
Mitigation Policies ◽  
Zambezi River

Abstract Emerging climate change mitigation policies focus on the implementation of global measures relying on carbon prices to attain rapid emissions reductions, with limited consideration for the impacts of global policies at local scales. Here, we use the Zambezi River Basin in Southern Africa to demonstrate how local multisector dynamics across interconnected Water-Energy-Food (WEF) systems are impacted by global climate change mitigation policies. Our analysis provides quantitative evidence of the unintended vulnerabilities that emerge for this basin across a broad array of potential climate and socio-economic futures. Our results indicate that climate change mitigation policies related to land use change emissions can have negative side effects on local water demands, generating increased risks for failures across all the components of the WEF systems in the Zambezi River Basin. Analogous vulnerabilities could impact many river basins in Southern and Western Africa. It is critical to connect global climate change mitigation policies to local regional dynamics to better navigate the full range of possible future scenarios while supporting policy makers in prioritizing sustainable mitigation and adaptation solutions.

scholarly journals Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Lotfirad ◽  
Arash Adib ◽  
Jaber Salehpoor ◽  
Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽  
Ozgur Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

Socioeconomic impacts of floods and droughts in the middle Zambezi river basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gode Bola Bosongo ◽  
Jean Ndembo Longo ◽  
Jacqui Goldin ◽  
Vincent Lukanda Muamba
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Coping Mechanisms ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Migration Stream ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Floods And Droughts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Zambezi River Basin ◽  
Zambezi River

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to analyse how floods and droughts affect communities' livelihood in the middle Zambezi river basin and coping mechanisms which households apply to counter the impact of floods and droughts. Design/methodology/approach – The method adopted was semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and semi-structured questionnaires. Findings – Thematic analysis shows that the major issues affecting communities' livelihood in the middle Zambezi river basin are related to frequent floods and droughts. Floods are due to heavy seasonal rainfall which occurs at the peak of the rainfall season. As for droughts, the frequency of dry-spells of 20 days on average has been observed during the crop season. The impacts of floods and droughts in the district, notably in some wards such as Kanyemba, are the reduction of crop production, food shortages, reduction of agriculture derived income and erosion of social network. Households have responded to these impacts through a number of coping mechanisms including disposal of assets, labour migration, stream bank and floodplain cultivation, piecework, remittance, wild production and fishing. However, such coping mechanisms are short term and some of them are in conflict with the country's environmental laws. Originality/value – This paper reports a study on the first such finding related to socioeconomic impact of floods and droughts on households located in the middle Zambezi valley which is 500 km from Harare with a specific focus on traditional coping strategies in the face of disasters.

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