Arrighi’s Theory of systemic cycles of capital accumulation as a mechanism of cyclical development of the Global Economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 966-981
Author(s):  
Sergey Gennadyevich Kapkanshchikov

The article uses the methodology of systemic global analysis and the theory of systemic cycles of capital accumulation to argue that we are now at a turning point of the modern era in connection with the unfolding change in the dominant world economic order. Based on the methodological approach, within the framework of which there is a hegemonic country and the rest of the world, the forecast regarding the forthcoming multipolarity of the world economy is rejected. Various stages of capital and financial expansion with their inherent, respectively, dirigistic and liberal models of state regulation of the economy are compared to each other. A chronological overview of the Spanish-Genoese, Dutch, British, American and Asian accumulation cycles is presented. The patterns of their change in the course of the formation of new technological structures are revealed. The place of Russia in the process of natural evolution of world economic structures is also identified. The objective and subjective reasons for the longterm hegemony of the United States, as well as factors of the upcoming completion of the American cycle of capital accumulation in the foreseeable future, are revealed. The author outlines the tactics employed by the American authorities to counteract the objective hegemonic cycles. The reasons for the movement of the center of the world economy to the East Asian region are revealed, with the justification of the need for a natural inclusion of Russia in the functioning of the Asian world economic order.

Author(s):  
Andrey N. Spartak ◽  
Tatiana A. Voronova

The article deals with long-term trends in the world economy and international trade, new challenges for global development, including digitalization and servicification of the economy, trade wars and increasing geopolitical tensions in the world. Also the medium-term prospects of world economic and commodity markets situation are analyzed, as well as specific economic developments in the largest countries and groupings – the USA, EU, China and India. The unprecedented scale of trade and economic confrontation between the United States and China has significantly increased uncertainty in the global market and provoked an explosive growth of trade protectionism, destabilized the foundations of the existing world economic order. Long-term structural shifts in international trade are associated with an increase in the share of services and expanding range of tradable services due to digitization, in the world energy market – with the US becoming one of the largest net exporters of energy and the formation of a highly competitive global gas market due to the explosive growth of LNG exports and the diversification of its suppliers. Almost all future scenarios are dominated by downside risks and strategic uncertainties, which increases the demand for multi-vector policy and diversification in foreign economic activity.


1981 ◽  
Vol 91 (364) ◽  
pp. 1061 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Hughes ◽  
Sven Grassman ◽  
Erik Lundberg

1974 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 23-37

The world economic position and prospects have worsened further in the last three months. In the United States and Japan, in particular, recessionary conditions are proving to be more marked and more prolonged than we had expected, and it looks as though by the end of the year all the major industrial countries, with the possible exception of France, will have experienced at least one quarter in which output has fallen or at best shown no appreciable rise. The other developed countries have fared better, but we no longer expect there to be any growth of output in the OECD area either in the second half of the year or in the year as a whole. In 1975 the position should be rather better, at least by the second half. We expect OECD countries' aggregate GNP to grow by about 2 per cent year-on-year and nearly 3 per cent between the fourth quarters of 1974 and 1975.


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