Climatic Changes Impact upon the Spring High-water Runoff and its Formation Factors in the Volga Basin.
An assessment of the spring runoff characteristics and its formation factors in the Volga basin over the period of 1978–2010 vs. the period of 1948–1977 has been carried out. It has been found that the spring runoff variations are different in direction: 70% of the observed catchments demonstrate decrease of the spring high-water runoff layer, while 30% demonstrate the increase. Runoff alterations are statistically significant only at 35 % of individual catchments. On the average in the Volga River the runoff value at individual catchments with the runoff volume negative trend, this value decreased by approximately 10% over the past thirty years. It has been shown that the snowmelt runoff depends on the wide range of hydro/meteorological, physical and physical/geographic factors that are often correlated. Results of laboratory/field investigations and mathematical simulation were used for analysis of physical regularities of the snowmelt runoff formation processes that caused its variability. It has been shown that maximal snow resource and precipitation of the flood period are the main climatic factors that determine the spring flood runoff. The substrate surface factors act as intermediate regulators; they intensify or reduce the climatic factors’ role and ultimately determine the spring flood runoff variations trend. The proposal is to use the total volume of spring/winter precipitation as well as the winter air temperature as the main predictors for the spring flood long-term forecast.