scholarly journals Prediksi Tingkat Penerimaan Lulusan Siswa Kejuruan dalam Dunia Usaha dan Industri Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
pp. 84-89
Author(s):  
Hasanatul Iftitah ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Vocational School ◽  
Vocational Schools ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Vocational High School ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Academic Year

Vocational High School (SMK) Negeri 4 Kota Jambi is one of the favorite vocational schools in Jambi City which is also the only pure tourism vocational school in Jambi Province. SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi has several vocational majors, namely culinary, beauty, fashion and hospitality. In general, students who choose to attend vocational schools have the hope of being able to work immediately after graduating from school, they do not need to continue to study to be able to work. In this study, researchers will predict the level of acceptance of students from SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi in the business and industrial world using the Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo is a method that can find values ​​that are close to the actual value of events that will occur based on the distribution of sampling data. The technique of this method is to select random numbers from the probability distribution to perform the simulation. The data used in this study is the data of students from SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi who worked from the 2015/2016 Academic Year to the 2018/2019 Academic Year. Furthermore, the data will be processed using the Monte Carlo method. The simulation will be implemented using PHP programming. The result of this research is the level of prediction accuracy of students of SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi who are accepted in the business and industrial world using the Monte Carlo method is 84%.

scholarly journals Prediksi Tingkat Penerimaan Lulusan Siswa Kejuruan dalam Dunia Usaha dan Industri Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

2020 ◽  
pp. 84-89
Author(s):  
Hasanatul Iftitah ◽  
Y Yuhandri
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Vocational School ◽  
Vocational Schools ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Vocational High School ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Academic Year

Vocational High School (SMK) Negeri 4 Kota Jambi is one of the favorite vocational schools in Jambi City which is also the only pure tourism vocational school in Jambi Province. SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi has several vocational majors, namely culinary, beauty, fashion and hospitality. In general, students who choose to attend vocational schools have the hope of being able to work immediately after graduating from school, they do not need to continue to study to be able to work. In this study, researchers will predict the level of acceptance of students from SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi in the business and industrial world using the Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo is a method that can find values ​​that are close to the actual value of events that will occur based on the distribution of sampling data. The technique of this method is to select random numbers from the probability distribution to perform the simulation. The data used in this study is the data of students from SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi who worked from the 2015/2016 Academic Year to the 2018/2019 Academic Year. Furthermore, the data will be processed using the Monte Carlo method. The simulation will be implemented using PHP programming. The result of this research is the level of prediction accuracy of students of SMK Negeri 4 Kota Jambi who are accepted in the business and industrial world using the Monte Carlo method is 84%.

scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Mengidentifikasi Peningkatan Penjualan Tanaman Mawar (Studi Kasus di Toko Bunga 5 Bersaudara Kota Solok)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dian Cyntia Dewi ◽  
S Sumijan ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Cumulative Frequency ◽  
Simulation Process ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Simulation Results

Roses are one of the most popular types of plants in the community. The sale of roses at the flower shop of 5 siblings is increasingly in demand. Identifying the increase in sales is important in analyzing sales progress. At the present time the seller can only see a manual increase in sales that are most in demand. This study aims to determine predictions of the increase in sales of rose flowers with a monte carlo simulation accurately and accurately. The data that will be processed in this study in the last 2 years, namely 2018 and 2019, rose plants obtained at the 5 Brothers Flower Shop in Solok City. There are several types of roses in the predicted sales level. Then the data will be converted into the probability distribution into cumulative frequency and followed by generating random numbers so that they can determine random numbers. Next, we will group the boundary intervals of the random numbers that have been obtained and continue with the simulation process so that the simulation results and percentage accuracy are obtained using the Monte Carlo method. The results of this study on data processing from 2019 to 2020 have an accuracy of 90%. So this research is very appropriate in identifying the increase in sales for the following year. The design of this system determines the amount of increased sales of goods using the monte carlo method in a flower shop of 5 siblings. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to identify specific sales increases. The results obtained are quite accurate using the Monte Carlo method.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Accuracy of the Calculation of the Diaphragm Area by the Monte Carlo Method

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-26
Author(s):  
O. D. Kupko
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Circular Aperture ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Relative Standard ◽  
Uniform Probability Distribution ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
The Difference

The process of measuring the area of a circular diaphragm using a device that determines the coordinates of the boundary of the diaphragm is theoretically considered. The Monte Carlo method with a small number of implementations was used. The procedure for calculating the area is described in detail. We considered a circular aperture with a precisely known radius. On the circumference of the diaphragm, the coordinate measuring points vibrated through 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, and π/2 radians vibrated. To simulate random deviations (uncertainties) when measuring coordinates, random additives were used with a uniform probability distribution and a given standard deviation. For each case, the areas were calculated in accordance with the proposed procedure. The difference in the results of calculating the area from the true area depending on the number of measurement points and the standard deviation of random additives is analyzed. It is shown that the ratio of the relative standard deviations of the area to the relative standard deviations of the coordinates is approximately the same for each number of measurements. The dependence of this relationship on the number of measurements is determined. The results obtained are analyzed.

scholarly journals Peramalan Penerimaan Karyawan PT. Cipta Persada Infrastruktur Menggunakan Monte Carlo

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-115
Author(s):  
Lasri Nijal ◽  
Roki Hardianto ◽  
Afenwil Rezky
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Toll Roads ◽  
Employee Recruitment ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Road Projects ◽  
Employee Acceptance

 Forecasting is done at PT. Cipta Persada Infrastructure (CPI) using the Monte Carlo method. The forecasting process refers to the use of employee recruitment data for the last 3 years (2018, 2019 and 2020). Currently the company is concentrating on toll road projects in Riau province including the Permai Toll Road, Pekanbaru – Bangkinang Toll Road and other toll roads in Riau. The simulation will be implemented using PHP programming. The results of this study are the level of prediction accuracy of employee acceptance at PT. Citra Persada Infrastructure using the Monte Carlo method is 80%. The Monte Carlo method is suitable to be used to accurately predict the level of employee acceptance for the following year, so that the results of the research can be used by PT. Citra Persada Infrastruktur (CPI) and other parties in need.

scholarly journals Monte Carlo Methods and the Koksma-Hlawka Inequality

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 725
Author(s):  
Sergey Ermakov ◽  
Svetlana Leora
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Random Processes ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Average Order ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Acceptable Accuracy ◽  
Cubature Formulas ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The solution of a wide class of applied problems can be represented as an integral over the trajectories of a random process. The process is usually modeled with the Monte Carlo method and the integral is estimated as the average value of a certain function on the trajectories of this process. Solving this problem with acceptable accuracy usually requires modeling a very large number of trajectories; therefore development of methods to improve the accuracy of such algorithms is extremely important. The paper discusses Monte Carlo method modifications that use some classical results of the theory of cubature formulas (quasi-random methods). A new approach to the derivation of the well known Koksma-Hlawka inequality is pointed out. It is shown that for high ( s > 5 ) dimensions of the integral, the asymptotic decrease of the error comparable to the asymptotic behavior of the Monte Carlo method, can be achieved only for a very large number of nodes N. It is shown that a special criterion can serve as a correct characteristic of the error decrease (average order of the error decrease). Using this criterion, it is possible to analyze the error for reasonable values of N and to compare various quasi-random sequences. Several numerical examples are given. Obtained results make it possible to formulate recommendations on the correct use of the quasi-random numbers when calculating integrals over the trajectories of random processes.

scholarly journals Study on Structural Reliability of Prestressed Reinforced Concrete Beam Bridges Based on Full Probability Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 1210 (1) ◽  
pp. 012003
Author(s):  
Yubao Liu ◽  
Hanxiong Liu ◽  
Shouyi Sun
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Limit State ◽  
State Equation ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
State Equations ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

Abstract A three dimensional(3D) finite element model is established for a prestressed concrete girder bridge, list the limit state equation and variable probability distribution model, obtain the failure probability and reliability index of the limit state equation based on the Monte-Carlo method, investigate the reliability index’s sensitivity to random variables for limit state equations of bridge bearing capacity. The specific method of the research on the structure reliability index calculation is to select a suitable way that can fit the research’s object among the center point method, the checking-point method, the Monte-Carlo method, the importance sampling method, and so on. Authors use finite element software ANSYS to build model and perform 3D force analysis. According to the results, authors can determine the bridges’ failure modes under the state of 3D stress. Then, authors can list the possible limit state equations related to Stiffness, strength, function, durability, and some character else. After determining the bridge’s structural limit state equation and the probability distribution model of the variables, determine the distribution function of each impact factor and its characteristic parameters through the site survey data and other related data surveys. Then, use the Monte-Carlo method for the calculation of bridge reliability index, obtain the failure probability and reliability index of each limit state equation, analyze the sensitivity of each variable to the reliability index under the ultimate state of the bridge’s bearing capacity. At last, authors give construction quality control plans and suggestions according to the data above.

scholarly journals Prediction Of Amount Of Use Of Planning Family Contraception Equipment Using Monte Carlo Method (Case Study In Linggo Sari Baganti District)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rani Yunima Astia ◽  
Julius Santony ◽  
Sumijan Sumijan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Married Couple ◽  
Random Numbers ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Numerical Analysis Method ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

Family planning aims to minimize birth rates in Indonesia. To conduct socialization, it is carried out to existing fertile couples. Pus is a married couple whose wife is in the range of 15-49 years. Contraception itself consists of 2 periods, namely short and long. Where the pus can choose according to what they want, therefore there is often a lack of stock. Thus it is necessary to predict how many contraceptives are used with a method to be more efficient. The Monte Carlo method is used which is a numerical analysis method that involves a sample of random numbers. Where to use the previous year's data to get the predicted results of the next year in the form of numbers. After passing the simulation series the percentage results have been obtained with an average of over 80%.

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