A Study on Electricity Demand Prediction Model by Periodicity Characteristics of Time Series Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 1991-2003
Author(s):  
Joon-Mo Yang ◽  
Minsoo Jeong ◽  
Insook Cho
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Demand Prediction

scholarly journals A Study on Estimation and Prediction of Vector Time Series Model Using Financial Big Data (Interest Rates)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 309-316
Author(s):  
Jae-Hyun Kim, Chang-Ho An
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Call Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

Due to the global economic downturn, the Korean economy continues to slump. Hereupon the Bank of Korea implemented a monetary policy of cutting the base rate to actively respond to the economic slowdown and low prices. Economists have been trying to predict and analyze interest rate hikes and cuts. Therefore, in this study, a prediction model was estimated and evaluated using vector autoregressive model with time series data of long- and short-term interest rates. The data used for this purpose were call rate (1 day), loan interest rate, and Treasury rate (3 years) between January 2002 and December 2019, which were extracted monthly from the Bank of Korea database and used as variables, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used as a research model. The stationarity test of variables was confirmed by the ADF-unit root test. Bidirectional linear dependency relationship between variables was confirmed by the Granger causality test. For the model identification, AICC, SBC, and HQC statistics, which were the minimum information criteria, were used. The significance of the parameters was confirmed through t-tests, and the fitness of the estimated prediction model was confirmed by the significance test of the cross-correlation matrix and the multivariate Portmanteau test. As a result of predicting call rate, loan interest rate, and Treasury rate using the prediction model presented in this study, it is predicted that interest rates will continue to drop.

Multi-dimensional Prediction Model for Cell Traffic in City Scale

2020 ◽  
pp. 2150010
Author(s):  
Hong Wang ◽  
Liqun Wang ◽  
Shufang Zhao ◽  
Xiuming Yue
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Base Stations ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Traffic Prediction ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Spatial Dimensions ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Traffic prediction is a classical time series prediction which has been investigated in different domains, but most existing models are proposed based on limited time or spatial scale. Mobile cellular network traffic prediction is of paramount importance for quality-of-service (QoS) and power management of the cellular base stations, especially in the 5G era. Through the statistical analysis of the real historical traffic data obtained in a city scale spanning across multiple months, this paper makes an in-depth study of the temporal characteristics and behavior rules of the model data traffic. Considering that the time series data show different changing rules under the different time dimensions, spatial dimensions and independent dimensions, a multi-dimensional recurrent neural network (MDRNN) prediction model is established to predict the future cell traffic volume over various temporal and spatial dimensions. The data of this paper are trained and tested over real data of a city, and the granularity of the proposed prediction model can be drilled down to the cell level. Compared with the traditional trend fitting method, the proposed model achieves mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) reduction of 6.56%, and provides guidance for energy efficiency optimization and power consumption reduction of base stations in various temporal and spatial dimensions.

scholarly journals Prediction of Daily Blood Sampling Room Visits Based on ARIMA and SES Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Xinli Zhang ◽  
Yu Yu ◽  
Fei Xiong ◽  
Le Luo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Blood Sampling ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Large Hospital ◽  
Daily Number ◽  
Day Of The Week

This paper is aimed at establishing a combined prediction model to predict the demand for medical care in terms of daily visits in an outpatient blood sampling room, which provides a basis for rational arrangement of human resources and planning. On the basis of analyzing the comprehensive characteristics of the randomness, periodicity, trend, and day-of-the-week effects of the daily number of blood collections in the hospital, we firstly established an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) model to capture the periodicity, volatility, and trend, and secondly, we constructed a simple exponential smoothing (SES) model considering the day-of-the-week effect. Finally, a combined prediction model of the residual correction is established based on the prediction results of the two models. The models are applied to data from 60 weeks of daily visits in the outpatient blood sampling room of a large hospital in Chengdu, for forecasting the daily number of blood collections about 1 week ahead. The result shows that the MAPE of the combined model is the smallest overall, of which the improvement during the weekend is obvious, indicating that the prediction error of extreme value is significantly reduced. The ARIMA model can extract the seasonal and nonseasonal components of the time series, and the SES model can capture the overall trend and the influence of regular changes in the time series, while the combined prediction model, taking into account the comprehensive characteristics of the time series data, has better fitting prediction accuracy than a single model. The new model can well realize the short-to-medium-term prediction of the daily number of blood collections one week in advance.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN TENAGA LISTRIK KONSUMEN SEKTOR KONSUMTIF PERUSAHAAN LISTRIK NEGARA

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 330
Author(s):  
Aminullah Assagaf
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Data Distribution ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Independent Variable

This research aims to analyse electricity demand, and focus for consumptive sector in PT Perusahaan listrik Negara (Persero) or PT PLN (Persero). While selected by consumptive sector is some region in Jawa Bali and otuside Jawa Bali. Step of research and process result based on SPSS calculation, and use time series data year 1995 - 2009. As for used analysis model follow its data distribution that is the non linear regression model being based on Ln with dependent variable is demand electricity or kWh sales, and independent variable consist of install capacity, average tariff, and rate of capacity using percustomers. Obtain result that install capacity and rate of capacity using percustomers have given positif impact, and average tariff have given negative impact. All of that independent variable have significant influence, and install capacity variable most its influence significant to electricity demand of consumptive sector. PLN’s management has to observe growth of explanatory variable to make policy for demand and supply equilibrium and toward customers satisfaction.

scholarly journals Adding Additional Features to Improve Time Series Prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (45) ◽  
pp. 72-78
Author(s):  
Dmitrii Borkin ◽  
Martin Németh ◽  
German Michaľčonok ◽  
Olga Mezentseva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Time Series Data Analysis

Abstract This paper aims at the time-series data analysis. We propose the possibility of adding additional features to the existing time series data set, to improve the prediction performance of the prediction model. The main goal of our research was to find a proper method for building a prediction model for the time-series data, using also machine learning methods. In this phase of research, we aim at the data analysis and proposal of the ways to add additional features to our dataset. In this paper, we aim at adding derived parameters from one of the original features. We also propose incorporating LAG’s into the dataset as new features, to enhance the prediction performance on the time series based data.

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