The Monetary Policy Impact on the Dynamics of Russia’s Real Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-108
Author(s):  
Marina Tiunova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks

The article examines the influence of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia on the dynamics of real GDP and its components, real wages and employment from 2003 to 2016. Using the Bayesian structural vector autoregression model (BSVAR) with recent dataset, the paper provides the calculation of the extent of changes in the main Russia’s real sector indicators in response to monetary policy, money base and exchange rate shocks. The analysis allows to conclude that monetary policy leads to real variables changes in Russia. The expected contractionary monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia with higher interest rates had a statistically valid weak negative effect on real indicators.

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110253
Author(s):  
Abebe Hailemariam ◽  
Kris Ivanovski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Net Export ◽  
Positive Effect

This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05% of the variations in tourism net service exports.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS KEBIJAKAN FISKAL EKSPANSIF, KEBIJAKAN MONETER EKSPANSIF DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Fadhliah Yuniwinsah ◽  
Ali Anis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model

This study examined the causality between expansionary fiscal policy, expansionary monetary policy and economic growth in Indonesia’s using a time series data with vector autoregression model (VAR) in the period of 1969-2018. The results of this study showed that are there is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy but there one-way relationship between them, it is the expansionary monetary policy gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. There is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, It is economic growth gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. And there is no causality between expansionary monetary policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, it is economic growth gives influence to expansionary monetary policy.

scholarly journals Loose Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment of Manufacturing Firms in the Czech Republic

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-385
Author(s):  
Veronika Kajurová ◽  
Dagmar Linnertová
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Effect

Abstract The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effects of loose monetary policy on corporate investment of manufacturing firms in the Czech Republic during the period between 2006 and 2015. The main focus of the paper is on the effect of low interest rates on investment activity of Czech firms; additionally, the effects of interactions between interest rate and other firm-specific variables are investigated. The results indicate that corporate investment is positively associated with firm size, investment opportunities, and long term debt. Also, a negative effect of the cash position is found. Further, the findings show that monetary policy is a significant determinant of firm investment activity: when the monetary policy is loose, investment is positively affected. Furthermore, differences in the determinants of investment between highly and low leveraged firms were revealed.

scholarly journals Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic – Granger approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 7) ◽  
pp. 347-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Poměnková ◽  
S. Kapounek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and the aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the general price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule” concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged values of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

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