scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS KEBIJAKAN FISKAL EKSPANSIF, KEBIJAKAN MONETER EKSPANSIF DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Fadhliah Yuniwinsah ◽  
Ali Anis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model

This study examined the causality between expansionary fiscal policy, expansionary monetary policy and economic growth in Indonesia’s using a time series data with vector autoregression model (VAR) in the period of 1969-2018. The results of this study showed that are there is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy but there one-way relationship between them, it is the expansionary monetary policy gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. There is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, It is economic growth gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. And there is no causality between expansionary monetary policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, it is economic growth gives influence to expansionary monetary policy.

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI, PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH DAN EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Yusra Mahzalena ◽  
Hijri Juliansyah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Var Analysis ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Autoregression Model

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of inflation, Government spending, and exports on economic growth in Indonesia during 1990-2016. This study used time series data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The number of samples in this study was 27 years as the object of this research. This study used a Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) analysis tool with the help of Eviews 9 software. The results of the VAR analysis model showed that economic growth was insignificantly and positively influenced by its movements, inflation had a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth, and Government spending had a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth, while exports had a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth.

scholarly journals INTEGRASI PASAR AYAM BROILER DI SENTRA PRODUKSI DAN PASAR INDONESIA

JURNAL PANGAN ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44
Author(s):  
Jojo Jojo ◽  
Harianto Harianto ◽  
Rita Nurmalina ◽  
Dedi Budiman Hakim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Broiler Chickens ◽  
Broiler Chicken ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The West ◽  
West Java ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model

Ayam broiler  merupakan salah satu komoditas strategis yang tumbuh pesat, dihasilkan subsektor peternakan. Permasalahan umum pemasaran ayam broiler antara lain fluktuasi harga dan kompetisi pasar terhadap harga ayam antar pedagang besar antar kota menyebabkan terjadinya keterkaitan harga ayam satu kota dengan kota lainnya, antar peternak dan pedagang eceran. Tujuan penelitian ini  untuk mengkaji integrasi pasar  ayam broiler Jawa Barat dan pasar Indonesia.  Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder  time series bulanan, yaitu 72 bulan, periode  Januari 2014 – Desember 2019. Data dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan model VAR (Vector Autoregression). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa  pasar  ayam broiler Jawa Barat tidak memiliki integrasi dengan pasar Indonesia baik dalam jangka panjang ataupun jangka pendek. Broiler chickens are a strategic commodity that is growing rapidly, produced by the livestock sub-sector. General problems of broiler chicken marketing include price fluctuations and market competition on chicken prices among wholesalers between cities, causing a linkage between the price of chickens from one city to another, between breeders and retail traders. The purpose of this study was to examine the integration of the West Java broiler market and the Indonesian market. The data used are secondary monthly time series data, namely 72 months, for the period January 2014 - December 2019. The data were analyzed using the VAR (Vector Autoregression) model approach. The results of the analysis show that the West Java broiler chicken market does not have integration with the Indonesian market either in the long or short term.  

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH – A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-164
Author(s):  
Saddam Hussain ◽  
Chunjiao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Relationship Of

This paper explores the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan, applying techniques of co-integration and Hsiao’s version of Granger causality, using time series data over the period 1965-2019. Time series data of macroeconomic determi-nants – i.e. energy growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) growth and population growth shows a positive correlation with economic growth while there is no correlation founded be-tween economic growth and inflation rate or Consumer Price Index (CPI). The general conclu-sion of empirical results is that economic growth causes energy consumption.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals An econometric analysis of the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Nadar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

This study investigatesthe effectiveness of fiscal policy and monetary policy in India. We collected thetime series data for India ranging from 1960 to 2019 from World Development Indicator (WDI). Weapplied the bound test co-integration approach to check the long-run relationship between fiscalpolicy, monetary policy, and economic growth in the context of Indian economy. The short-run andlong-run effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy have been estimated using ARDL models. Theresults showed that there is a long-run relationship between fiscal and monetary policies witheconomic growth. The estimated short-run coefficients indicated that a few immediate short runimpacts of fiscal and monetary policies are insignificant. However, the short-run impacts becomesignificant as time passes. The long-run results suggested that the long-run impact of both fiscal andmonetary policies on economic growth are positive and significant. More specifically, the GDP levelincreases if the money supply and government expenditure increase (Expansionary fiscal andmonetary policies). On the other hand, the GDP level decreasesif the money supply and governmentexpenditure decrease (contractionary fiscal and monetary policies). Therefore, this studyrecommends to use expansionary policies to spur the Indian economy.

scholarly journals How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy?

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke ◽  
Molebogeng Manoto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Time Series ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run.

scholarly journals On Nonlinear Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Study of ASEAN-5 Countries Period 2000–2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ambar Galih ◽  
Sugiharso Safuan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Nonlinear Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model

Money (inflation) has played a vital role in economic growth. However, the nexus between them has always drawn mesmerizing debates. From the thoughts of Classical and Keynes which argued the existence of money neutrality, to the level of empirical studies which find either positive or negative correlation between inflation and economic growth. Recent studies concerning the debatable relationship have evolved it into a hypothesis whether the relation is nonlinear with a threshold or a point where the link switches. This study aims to re-examine the causality between inflation and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries period 2000Q1–2016Q4. The results based on Threshold Vector Autoregression model indicate the presence of a nonlinear relationship between the two variables.

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