scholarly journals DP 0253 - Are Fiscal VAR’s Non-Fundamentalness Easily Reversible Through the Addition of Informative Variables?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Christian Vonbun ◽  
Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Model Misspecification ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Moving Average Representation ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Average Representation

The VAR/SVAR (Vector Autoregressive and Structural Vector Autoregressive) models are the cornerstone of the contemporaneous empirical macroeconomic research, in particular for being able to measure the impact of fiscal policy shocks. They may be employed as atheoretical models, as well as a mean to support the estimation and testing of DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models – the main theoretical tool for modern macroeconomics. Nevertheless, VAR models may be subject to pathologies, such as the non-fundamentalness. It is capable of biasing the estimates in any direction or intensity, and it consists of the non-invertibility of the MA (Moving Average) representation on the positive powers of the lag operator. This is associated with the insufficiency of the econometrician’s data to estimate the model’s correct parameters or with model misspecification. This study is the first to employ the latest and most efficient tests for non-fundamentalness on fiscal data for the USA: the Forni and Gambetti’s (2014) and Canova and Sahneh (2018) tests. The data and model were found to be non-fundamental.

A REPRESENTATION THEORY FOR POLYNOMIAL COFRACTIONALITY IN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1201-1217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimo Franchi
Keyword(s):  
Representation Theory ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Recursive Algorithm ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Moving Average Representation ◽  
Average Representation

We extend the representation theory of the autoregressive model in the fractional lag operator of Johansen (2008, Econometric Theory 24, 651–676). A recursive algorithm for the characterization of cofractional relations and the corresponding adjustment coefficients is given, and it is shown under which condition the solution of the model is fractional of order d and displays cofractional relations of order d − b and polynomial cofractional relations of order d − 2b,…, d − cb ≥ 0 for integer c; the cofractional relations and the corresponding moving average representation are characterized in terms of the autoregressive coefficients by the same algorithm. For c = 1 and c = 2 we find the results of Johansen (2008).

THE INTERNATIONAL IMPACT OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doriane Intungane
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

The recent financial crisis started a global debate on the role of financial policies, which led to financial system reforms in many countries. These reforms mainly consisted of increasing the usage of macroprudential policies. This dissertation seeks to understand whether macroprudential policies in financially integrated countries reduced their vulnerability to the impact of external shocks. Chapter 2 empirically examines the impact of macroprudential policies on cross-border bilateral credit growth. Capital requirements and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, in 15 lending countries and 34 borrowing countries between 2000 and 2014, are used in the analysis. The results show that in some countries, the increase of capital requirements is not effective in reducing international credit flows during periods of financial vulnerability. The impact of tightening LTV ratios is more heterogeneous across countries because LTV ratios are mainly used in the housing sector and not all countries change their LTV ratio frequently. Hence, cooperation across countries is necessary but also countries should make sure that the change of macroprudential policies targeting lenders and those targeting borrowers complement each other to avoid international leakages. Chapter 3 analyzes issues related to the international spillover of macroprudential policies through international banking activities using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous and time-varying macroprudential policies. The results show that a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios is effective in reducing credit growth despite the existence of cross-border banking activities and heterogeneous implementation of capital requirements across countries. In addition, international coordination of capital requirements is also effective in reducing credit growth but less effective than a combination of capital requirements and LTV ratios. Chapter 4 focuses on the role of countercyclical LTV ratios in reducing transmission of shocks when international investors, holding domestic and foreign assets, face collateral constraint. Using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, the analysis demonstrates that time-varying LTV ratios can reduce the transmission of shocks.

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

2022 ◽  
pp. 097491012110673
Author(s):  
Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka ◽  
Dauda Olalekan Yinusa
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Transmission Channels ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the sources of external shocks and investigates their transmission channels in Nigeria using the trade-weighted variables from the country’s five top trading partners. Based on the assumption of the small open economy model, the study adopts the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model on quarterly data between 1981 and 2018 using the Bayesian estimation technique. Findings from the study reveal that external shocks have a temporary and short-lived effect on the Nigerian economy. In addition, the article shows that oil price, foreign output, and foreign inflation shock have positive impacts on output gap and inflation, while the impact of foreign interest rate shock on the output gap and inflation is negative and not significant. The study also reveals that external shocks collectively explain 86% and 39%of total fluctuations in the output gap and inflation, respectively. Lastly, the study finds that external shocks transmit to the Nigerian economy via different channels. The study, therefore, concludes that terms of trade and exchange rate channels are the dominant transmitters of external shocks in Nigeria. Based on the findings from the study, important policy implications are highlighted.

Hilbert Spaces Formed by Strongly Harmonizable Stable Processes

2001 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-188
Author(s):  
A. R. Soltani ◽  
B. Tarami
Keyword(s):  
Hilbert Space ◽  
Hilbert Spaces ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Stable Process ◽  
Stable Processes ◽  
Moving Average Representation ◽  
Process Elements ◽  
Average Representation

Abstract A strongly harmonizable continuous time symmetric α-stable process is considered. By using covariations, a Hilbert space is formed from the process elements and used for a purpose of moving average representation and prediction.

scholarly journals Macroprudential Policy in a Heterogeneous Environment—An Application of Agent-Based Approach in Systemic Risk Modelling

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa ◽  
Mateusz Pipień
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Rbc Models ◽  
The Impact

Assessment of welfare effects of macroprudential policy seems the most important application of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework of macro-modelling. In particular, the DSGE-3D model, with three layers of default (3D), was developed and used by the European Systemic Risk Board and European Central Bank as a reference tool to formally model the financial cycle as well as to analyze effects of macroprudential policies. Despite the extreme importance of incorporating financial constraints in Real Business Cycle (RBC) models, the resulting DSGE-3D construct still embraces the representative agent idea, making serious analyses of diversity of economic entities impossible. In this paper, we present an alternative to DSGE modelling that seriously departs from the assumption of the representativeness of agents. Within an Agent Based Modelling (ABM) framework, we build an environment suitable for performing counterfactual simulations of the impact of macroprudential policy on the economy, financial system and society. We contribute to the existing literature by presenting an ABM model with broad insight into heterogeneity of agents. We show the stabilizing effects of macroprudential policies in the case of economic or financial distress.

Solutions of Linear Rational Expectations Models

1985 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Broze ◽  
C. Gourieroux ◽  
A. Szafarz
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Stationary Solutions ◽  
Global Approach ◽  
Number Of Solutions ◽  
Simultaneous Treatment ◽  
Moving Average Representation ◽  
Natural Parametrization ◽  
Average Representation ◽  
Independent Parameters

Linear rational expectations models generally have a large number of solutions. It is thus important to describe them exhaustively in order to study their properties and subsequently estimate which solution best fits the data. In this paper, a global approach is suggested allowing a simultaneous treatment of all possible cases. The fundamental concepts are the revision processes appearing in the procedure of updating expectations. It isfound that the set of solutions is completely described by using a limitednumber of these processes. We show how the method may be applied to determine the set of stationary solutions admitting an infinite moving-average representation. We give a natural parametrization of this set and discuss the exact number of independent parameters.

On the asymptotic distributions of maxima of trigonometric polynomials with random coefficients

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 819-842 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. F. Turkman ◽  
A. M. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Random Coefficients ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Asymptotic Distributions ◽  
Trigonometric Polynomials ◽  
Stationary Gaussian Sequence ◽  
Moving Average Representation ◽  
Standard Normal ◽  
Average Representation ◽  
Mutually Independent

Let {ε t, t = 1, 2, ···, n} be a sequence of mutually independent standard normal random variables. Let Xn(λ) and Yn(λ) be respectively the real and imaginary parts of exp iλ t, and let . It is shown that as n tends to∞, the distribution functions of the normalized maxima of the processes {Xn(λ)}, (Yn(λ)}, {In(λ)} over the interval λ∈ [0,π] each converge to the extremal distribution function exp [–e–x], —∞ < x <∞.It is also shown that these results can be extended to the case where {ε t} is a stationary Gaussian sequence with a moving-average representation.

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