Towards monitoring CO₂ source-sink distribution over India via inverse modelling: Quantifying the fine-scale spatiotemporal variability of atmospheric CO₂ mole fraction

The prospect of improving the estimates of CO2 sources and sinks over India through inverse methods calls for a comprehensive atmospheric monitoring system involving atmospheric transport models that make a realistic accounting of atmospheric CO2 variability. In the context of expanding atmospheric CO2 measurement networks over India, this study aims to investigate the importance of a high-resolution modelling framework to utilize these observations and to quantify the uncertainty due to the misrepresentation of fine-scale variability of CO2 in the employed model. The spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 is represented by implementing WRF-Chem at a spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km. We utilize these high-resolution simulations for sub-grid variability calculation within the coarse model grid at a horizontal resolution of one degree (about 100 km). We show that the unresolved variability in the coarse model reaches up to a value of 10 ppm at the surface, which is considerably larger than the sampling errors, even comparable to the magnitude of mixing ratio enhancements in source regions. We find a significant impact of monsoon circulation in sub-grid variability, causing ~3 ppm average representation error between 12–14 km altitude ranges in response to the tropical easterly jet. The cyclonic storm Ockhi during November 2017 generates completely different characteristics in sub-grid variability than the rest of the period, whose influence increases the average representation error by ~1 ppm at the surface. By employing a first-order inverse modelling scheme using pseudo observations from nine tall tower sites over India and a constellation of satellite instruments, we show that the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) flux uncertainty solely due to unresolved variability is in the range of 6.3 to 16.2 % of the total NEE. We illustrate an example to test the efficiency of a simple parameterization scheme during non-monsoon periods to capture the unresolved variability in the coarse models, which reduces the bias in flux estimates from 9.4 % to 2.2 %. By estimating the fine-scale variability and its impact during different seasons, we emphasise the need for implementing a high-resolution modelling framework over the Indian subcontinent to better understand processes regulating CO2 sources and sinks.

Uncoiling the Human Cochlea—Physical Scala Tympani Models to Study Pharmacokinetics Inside the Inner Ear

In the field of cochlear implantation, artificial/physical models of the inner ear are often employed to investigate certain phenomena like the forces occurring during implant insertions. Up to now, no such models are available for the analysis of diffusion processes inside the cochlea although drug delivery is playing an increasingly important role in this field. For easy access of the cochlea along its whole profile, e.g., for sequential sampling in an experimental setting, such a model should ideally be longitudinal/uncoiled. Within this study, a set of 15 micro-CT imaging datasets of human cochleae was used to derive an average representation of the scala tympani. The spiral profile of this model was then uncoiled along different trajectories, showing that these trajectories influence both length and volume of the resulting longitudinal model. A volumetric analysis of the average spiral model was conducted to derive volume-to-length interrelations for the different trajectories, which were then used to generate two tubular, longitudinal scala tympani models with volume and length properties matching the original, spiral profile. These models can be downloaded for free and used for reproducible and comparable simulative and experimental investigations of diffusion processes within the inner ear.

DP 0253 - Are Fiscal VAR’s Non-Fundamentalness Easily Reversible Through the Addition of Informative Variables?

The VAR/SVAR (Vector Autoregressive and Structural Vector Autoregressive) models are the cornerstone of the contemporaneous empirical macroeconomic research, in particular for being able to measure the impact of fiscal policy shocks. They may be employed as atheoretical models, as well as a mean to support the estimation and testing of DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models – the main theoretical tool for modern macroeconomics. Nevertheless, VAR models may be subject to pathologies, such as the non-fundamentalness. It is capable of biasing the estimates in any direction or intensity, and it consists of the non-invertibility of the MA (Moving Average) representation on the positive powers of the lag operator. This is associated with the insufficiency of the econometrician’s data to estimate the model’s correct parameters or with model misspecification. This study is the first to employ the latest and most efficient tests for non-fundamentalness on fiscal data for the USA: the Forni and Gambetti’s (2014) and Canova and Sahneh (2018) tests. The data and model were found to be non-fundamental.

Limit theorems for locally stationary processes

We present limit theorems for locally stationary processes that have a one sided time-varying moving average representation. In particular, we prove a central limit theorem (CLT), a weak and a strong law of large numbers (WLLN, SLLN) and a law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) under mild assumptions using a time-varying Beveridge–Nelson decomposition.

Current data on early diagnosis of West syndrome. Electroencephalographic evolution of hypsarrhythmia

The review of current ideas about the early diagnosis of West syndrome is presented in terms of electroencephalography data based on a characterization of the period of prehypsarrhythmia preceding the appearance of the pattern of hypsarrhythmia. There are considered examples of our observations. Also, our data from a study of a group of children with hypsarrhythmia are described. A lot of studies of clinical manifestations and neurophysiological aspects of West syndrome have been conducted after the onset of clinical manifestations in the form of spasms, and variants of the transformation of West syndrome have been reported. On the other hand, very few studies of its clinical and electroencephalographic evolution have been conducted since the prehypsarrhythmic stage. The opportunity to reliably identify this precursor period would be the first step towards early diagnosis of West syndrome. Early prediction and subsequent intervention in West syndrome will have significant predictive value. A retrospective analysis of 68 electroencephalographic studies was conducted at the National Medical Research Center for childrens health. Based on the preliminary data of our study, we can distinguish a period of 1 to 3 months, during which in most children, the EEG pattern from prehypsarrhythmic in the form of multi-regional epileptiform activity with an average representation index or regional epileptiform activity in the parietal-occipital-posterior parts with a low representation index transforms to a pattern of hypsarrhythmia. It seems appropriate to recommend that newborns with structural brain disorders, premature infants, children with multi-regional epileptiform activity, with regional epileptiform activity in the parietal-occipital-posterior parts (even low index) to be observed with regular video EEG monitoring at least once every 1-2 months, to early detect the pattern of hypsarrhythmia and West syndrome.

The Effect of Mycotoxins Adsorbents Beta Glucans or Montmorillonite on Bovine Ruminal Fermentation In Vitro

Background: The addition of adsorbents in foods has been the strategy used by nutritionists to reduce the toxic effects of mycotoxins in animals. Mycotoxins are found in a range of foods and commonly they present variations in the chemical structure therefore, it has been appropriate to include adsorbents from different sources in the diet of ruminants. However, few researches were conducted in order to better understand the interaction of adsorbents on ruminal fermentation. Our objective in this study was to investigate the possible effects of two adsorbent products on bovine ruminal fermentation. One consists of 65% of β-glucan (β-glu), originating cell wall of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and used at a concentration of 1% and natural sodium montmorillonite (MMT) at a concentration of 5%.Materials, Methods & Results: The effects of β-glu adsorbents (1%) and MMC (5%) in culture medium that simulated ruminal fermentation were evaluated. Bottles, with a capacity of 120 mL, were used to be filled with substrate such as maize and ryegrass hay ground, nutrient solution (medium of Menke), liquid extracted rumen fistulated bovine and the two adsorbents evaluated, totaling 50 mL. The experiment was conducted with three treatments, named after: control (Cont), β-glu and MMT. In the control treatment adsorbents were not added. Six replicates were used for each treatment and two trials were conducted. One of the tests aimed to determine the fermentation kinetics by means of the gas production after 72 h’ incubation and quantifying the production of methane (CH4) at 48h. While another test aimed to quantify the production of short chain fatty acids (SCFA) - acetic, propionic and butyric acid - and the production of ammonia (NH3) in 24 h incubation. All assays were measured by gas chromatography. The highest total SCFA concentration was observed in β-glu treatment (67.71 mM) significantly superior to CONT (57.7 mM) treatment and MMT (53.28 mM), which was significantly lower than the β-glu treatment, but similar to CONT. The average representation (%) of acetic acid for the treatment MMT (62.9%) was significantly higher than the β-glu treatment (61.0%). The average proportions of propionic acid were similar between treatments, while the average representation (%) of butyric acid production was significantly higher for the β-glu treatment (13.1%) compared to CONT treatments (11.3%) and MMT (11.4%). The amount of NH3 was significantly reduced in MMT (9.6 mM) treatment compared to β-glu treatments (12.2 mM) and CONT (11.3 mM). In another test, the greater volume of gas (mL) was produced by β-glu treatment (103.4 mL), which was significantly greater than the treatments CONT (89.0 mL) and MMT (91.6 mL). The lag time, i.e. the time taken by the bacteria inoculum to develop lead-through in the substrate, in the MMT treatment took 6.2 h, slowing significantly compared to CONT treatments (4.8 h) and β Glu (4.33 h). The concentration of CH4 was significantly lower in MMT treatment (33.0%) compared to the CONT treatments (36.3%) and β-glu (35.68%).Discussion: The glucans which constitute the main cell wall S. cerevisae are the β-glucans with β-1-3 and β-1,6 glycosidic bonds. The largest and most significant concentration of SCFA and gas volume in the β-glu treatment can be explained by the degradation of β-glucans by rumen bacteria. The possible reason of reduced concentration of methane (CH4) in samples collected during 48 h of incubation in MMT treatment stands on the reduction in symbiotic activity of methanogenic bacteria and protozoa. Also, the possible reason of reduction in the concentration of ammonia (NH3) in MMT treatment could be associated to damage on protozoa with proteolytic activity. Our results showed that the amount of montmorillonite in rumen fluid influenced negatively the fermentative activity, therefore, delaying the colonization of bacteria in rumen substrate composed of maize and ryegrass hay. Moreover, the use of β-glu (1%) significantly increased the amount of short chain fatty acids such as, acetic acid and butyric acid, with the exception of propionic acid.

Influence of horse management systems in south-western Poland on the prevalence and intensity of gastrointestinal parasites.

The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and intensity of gastrointestinal parasites in horses from various management systems. The study included 296 horses of different breeds and ages (from 6 months to 20 years), of both sexes, coming from various management systems: Group 1 – horses using natural pastures, Group 2 – horses pastured on field pastures created by man, Group 3 – horses using sand areas. Faeces samples were collected directly from the rectum 1–2 days before worming. Each sample was examined macro- and microscopically (McMaster method). The number of oocysts/eggs per gram of faeces (OPG/EPG) and parasite abundance (average representation of parasites in relation to all animals). The results were subjected to statistical analysis using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Total prevalence of parasites in all groups was 66.89%: E. leucarti 0.68%; Anoplocephalidae 4.73%, P.equorum 9.46% and Strongylidae 64.19%. Total prevalence per group was the following: 1 – 57.43%; 2– 26.69%; 3 – 6.38 %. In all management systems, the dominating parasites belonged to Cyathostominae (Group 1–77.65%, Group 2 – 70.89%, Group 3 – 4.25%). The prevalences of P. equorum, Anoplocephalidae, E. leucarti in each group were as follows: Group 1 – 10.59; 3.53; 0.59%; Group 2 – 11.39; 10.13; 1.27%; Group 3 – 2.13; 0; 0%.The average intensities of Strongylildae, P. equorum, Anaplocephalidae and E. leucarti in groups were as follows: Group 1 – 606.44; 519.44; 50; 50; Group 2 – 472.32; 261.11; 62.5; 50; Group 3 – 1150; 450; 0; 0. On the other hand, the average abundances in each group were the following: Group 1 – 473.67; 55; 1.76; 0.29; Group 2 – 334.81; 29.75; 6.33; 0.63; Group 3 – 48.94; 9.57; 0; 0. The statistical analysis did not reveal statistically significant differences between the management system and invasion intensity. However, the analysis, taking into consideration a correlation between the management system and abundance, revealed statistically significant differences. The differences were observed between Groups 1 and 3 (pi = 0.0000001) and between Groups 2 and 3 (pi = 0.0000001).