scholarly journals Fiscal Deficit of Rajasthan: Trends, Cycles and Seasonal

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 366-377
Author(s):  
Dr. Debesh Bhowmik
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Product ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Filter Model ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Cyclical Trend

The paper has explored the smooth cyclical trend,cycles and seasonal patterns of fiscal deficit in gross and in per cent of net state domestic product of Rajasthan in current prices during 1990-91-2018-19 by applying Hamilton regression filter model(2018) which was also passed through ARIMA(p,d,q) forecasting model for 2030 and was also verified by heteroscedasticity test.Both the fiscal deficits in gross and in per cent of NSDP showed many peaks and troughs in cyclical patterns but only one peak and trough were found in the smooth cyclical trends and the inverse v shaped seasonal fluctuations were visible with no heteroscedasticity problems.Their ARIMA forecast models for 2030 are convergent,significant and move towards equilibrium.

scholarly journals Trends, Cycles and Seasonal Variations of Ukrainian Gross Domestic Product

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-94
Author(s):  
Debesh Bhowmik
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
Product Decomposition ◽  
Filter Model ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy

The article attempts to study trends, seasonal variations and cyclical fluctuations of Ukraine’s quarterly GDP at current prices. The period of the study is from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2020. The methodological support of the study includes an approach based on the Hamilton regression filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the asymmetric filter model of Cristiano and Fitzgerald. Based on the use of a Hamilton regression filter, which clearly gives one complete cycle with a peak and a depression, the study substantiates that the seasonally adjusted series of GDP has a slight difference with the remainder, but its seasonal fluctuations are homogeneous and have the shape of the letter V, which allowed us to draw the following conclusions: seasonal fluctuations in GDP are confirmed by the ACF and PACF models during the study period; the filter is very different from the Hamilton filter in terms of trend and cycle, but has common features in the context of asymmetry in time with the random walk filter of Cristiano and Fitzgerald. The paper substantiates the conclusions about stable and stationary series of GDP by volatility (leading to a decrease) of cyclical fluctuations based on the used forecast model ARIMA (4,0,4) for 2020-2030, which passed through the Hamilton regression filter. Based on the results of the study, the author provides recommendations on the need to introduce a new monetary and fiscal policy, including reform measures, which should be balanced with current trends in the functioning and development of international financial institutions and organizations. Such changes will be a motivating lever for the growth of the share of agriculture and related activities, production, transport, real estate, capital formation and other macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine’s economy, respectively, during the period of GDP decline. Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, decomposition, trends, cyclical fluctuations, seasonal variations, Hamilton Filter, Hodrick-Prescott Filter.

scholarly journals Seasonal fluctuations of H.Pylori markers in patients with acute viral hepatitis

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-20
Author(s):  
O. F. Belaia ◽  
S. N. Zuevskaya ◽  
O. A. Paevskaya ◽  
YU. V. Yudina ◽  
E. V. Volchkova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Viral Hepatitis ◽  
Detection Rate ◽  
Acute Viral Hepatitis ◽  
Eradication Therapy ◽  
The Body ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
O Antigen ◽  
High Molecular Weight Proteins ◽  
H Pylori

Under investigation of the dynamics of pathogenicity factors H. pylori (LPS/O-antigen markers VacA and high molecular weight proteins (HMWP) (including CagA) in the body ofpatients with acute viral hepatitis (AVH) of different etiology there were established seasonal patterns in feces and serum circulating immune complexes (CIC): LPS/O-antigen markers and H. pylori VacA included in CIC. The detection rate and levels of markers of H. pylori in patients who had AVH in January-April exceeded similar indices in patients whi had AVH in May-August. We believe that these data should be considered in the assessment of the results of the diagnosis ofH. pylori and results of eradication therapy.

scholarly journals The Determinant of Budget Fiscal Deficit of the Palestinian Authority and the Economic Factors Affecting It

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Khaled Hasan Zubdeh
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Balance Of Trade

A prolonged fiscal deficit is an inheriting problem for the Palestinian economy. This leaves the Palestinian authorities unable to pay for salaries and other needed money to spend on the infrastructure, education, health, and other services. The main aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the budget deficit and some indicators, gross domestic product, balance of trade, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and current account, using ordinary least square and ARMA methods for collected quarterly data for the years 2000-2018, and applying the data to a number of other tests such as unit roots test, Johansen cointegration test, normal distribution test, heteroskedasticity test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, variance inflation factors, etcetera, using Eviews10 program. The study’s main findings showed a long-run cointegration relationship between the budget deficit and the independent variables included in the study. The gross domestic product, balance of trade, and unemployment rate have a significant negative relationship with the budget deficit, while the remaining variables, inflation rate and current account, have a significant positive relationship with budget deficit.

scholarly journals Fiscal Deficits and Debt Dimensions of Pakistan

1999 ◽  
Vol 38 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1067-1080
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ishfaq ◽  
M. A. Chaudhary
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Complete Elimination ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
External Sources

Pakistan continues to suffer from a syndrome of high fiscal deficits and severe incidence of debt. Its annual fiscal deficit has stayed constantly at over 6 percent of GDP especially since 1990 [Pakistan (1997-98)]. The prevalence of such a high fiscal deficit over the years in a row has propelled increased borrowing from both internal and external sources to cover the resource gap. With inadequate improvement in the repayment capacity of the country debt has continued to accumulate at a massive rate. Serving as the cause and effect of each other, the volumes of both the fiscal deficit and debt have soared continuously. The most devastating consequence of high fiscal deficit and soaring debt has been the continuous accrual of massive debt-servicing. In fact, both the debt and debt-servicing have reached unaffordable limits. How to alleviate this situation has become the foremost issue of the country. While complete elimination of all the debt and thereby debt-servicing may not be easy to accomplish in the short run, efforts are needed to systematically bring the fiscal deficit down to a minimum affordable limit. What may be the minimum financeable level of fiscal deficit and how it may be reduced to that level are the issues addressed in this paper.

scholarly journals Aplikasi Metode Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) dalam Peramalan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 2017

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-12
Author(s):  
Rina Sri Kalsum Siregar ◽  
Dina Prariesa ◽  
Gumgum Darmawan
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Reliable Method ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Bootstrap Confidence Interval ◽  
Singular Spectral Analysis ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Tracking Signal

The purpose of this study was to look at seasonal patterns in the data of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) quarterly in the year 2000-2016 and the implementation of Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) in the data of GDP to predict the data of GDP in 2017. The SSA method used is the method of recurrent forecasting with bootstrap confidence interval to look at its beliefs of the interval. The source of data derived from the data of GDP in 2000-2016 with the base year in 2000 compiled by the Central Statistics Agency (CSA). The results showed that the SSA method can be used as a reliable method and can be valid that view from the value of MAPE size is 0.82 and the size of the tracking signal at -4.00.  

Growth analysis of four nursery-grown conifer species

1968 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 1389-1395 ◽  
Author(s):  
R van den. Driessche
Keyword(s):  
White Spruce ◽  
Sitka Spruce ◽  
Douglas Fir ◽  
Extension Growth ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
Conifer Species ◽  
Relative Growth ◽  
Stem Extension ◽  
Net Assimilation

Annual pattern of relative growth rate (RGR) and stem extension growth were examined in four 1-year-old conifer species grown at two nurseries. Net assimilation rate (NAR) and needle area ratio (F) were calculated for a 14-day period in June. Seasonal patterns of RGR in Douglas fir and Sitka spruce were similar, but RGR of white spruce was lower and showed a different pattern. Seasonal fluctuations in RGR may have been associated with changes in rate of stem extension growth in Douglas fir and Sitka spruce, but not in white spruce or hemlock. Differences in NAR had a greater effect on RGR than differences in F during June. In particular, low RGR was mainly due to low NAR in white spruce.

scholarly journals The effect of a budget deficit on inflation: The case of Tanzania

2004 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Solomon ◽  
WA De Wet
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Dynamic Simulations ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
High Inflation Rate ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Over Time

The Tanzanian economy has remained one of the limited numbers of countries that has experienced a relatively high inflation rate, accompanied by high fiscal deficits for a prolonged period in the absence of any hyperinflation. This paper examines the deficit-inflation relationship in the Tanzanian economy and establishes the causal link that runs from the budget deficit to the inflation rate usingcointegration analysis over the period 1967-2001. Some dynamic simulations are done to gauge the effect of a change in the budget deficit and gross domestic product on inflation over time. Due to monetisation of the budget deficit, significant inflationary effects are found for increases in the budget deficit.

scholarly journals Disinvestment of Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) and Fiscal Deficit Tackling in India

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-17
Author(s):  
K. A. Aneesh
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Life Insurance ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Lower Price ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
The Government

Every year since 1991, the Central Government of India has been successfully disinvesting its PSEs from various sectors. The recent announcement to strategically disinvest some of the better performing PSEs like Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd., Air India and so on is indeed shocking. This seriously questions the intension of the government towards the declared objectives of the disinvestment strategy in 1991. There are severe apprehensions on selling-off the PSEs at a lower price and the utilization of disinvestment proceeds for filling the revenue deficits of the Central Government. This paper discusses the idea of disinvestment in India and the debates associated with it. The paper also critically analyses the disinvestment proceeds in India as a tool to tackle mounting fiscal deficits after the initiation of the New Economic Policies in 1991.

scholarly journals Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary in Nigeria? Evidence From Cointegration With Structural Breaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Fasanya ◽  
Ayinke Fajobi ◽  
Abiodun Adetokunbo
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Better Than

Abstract In this paper, we model the relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation for Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2019. We employ the Linear ARDL approach and also account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models.The paper finds that fiscal deficit is a major determinant of inflation along with other macroeconomic factors considered in the study. However, we observe that it may be necessary to pre-test for structural breaks when modelling the relationship between fiscal deficit and price level as it performs better than when structural events are not considered.The results imply that a fiscal management process that does not encourage increased revenue and reduce fiscal deficits in Nigeria will further worsen the level of inflation in the country.

scholarly journals Are fiscal deficits inflationary in Nigeria? New evidence from bounds testing to cointegration with structural breaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (228) ◽  
pp. 123-147
Author(s):  
Ismail Fasanya ◽  
Ayinke Fajobi ◽  
Abiodun Adetokunbo
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Relationship

In this paper, we model the relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation for Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2016. We employ the linear ARDL approach and account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. The paper finds that the fiscal deficit is a major determinant of inflation along with other macroeconomic factors considered in the study. However, we observe that it may be necessary to pretest for structural breaks when modelling the relationship between the fiscal deficit and the price level, as it performs better than when structural events are not considered. The results imply that a fiscal management process that does not encourage increased revenue and reduce fiscal deficits will further worsen the level of inflation in the country.

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