scholarly journals INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL RISK BASED ASSESMENT AND EVALUATION FOR THE LARGE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana BURCAR DUNOVIC ◽  
Mladen RADUJKOVIC ◽  
Mladen VUKOMANOVIC
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Uncertainty Management ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Assessment And Evaluation ◽  
Project Assessment ◽  
Execution Phase ◽  
Impact Modelling ◽  
External Risk

The level of sensitivity to project success of large infrastructure projects is significantly greater in front-phase than in execution phase. Yet, due to focus on execution phase, methods for project assessment and on-going evaluation during front phases are insufficiently developed. On the other hand, risk management approaches has been moved from risk management towards holistic uncertainty management which is the most beneficial in front end phase of the project. This research identifies that majority of methods and techniques available does not support uncertainty management concept. The purpose of this paper is to develop and new method for risk based project assessment and evaluation inte­grating risk impact modelling using cumulative distribution curves (CDC) and multi-criteria project evaluation approach. Research is based on in-depth risk analysis of 15 large infrastructure projects using risk model of components and char­acteristics. The conclusion of the paper is verification and validation of method that combines qualitative and quantita­tive analysis using risk components, risk breakdown structure, AHP method and risk impact modelling using cumulative distribution curves (CDC) for internal and external risk based assessment and evaluation of large infrastructure projects.

Risk Management for Cultural Organizations.The Example of Agricultural Museums in the Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-122
Author(s):  
Michal Plaček ◽  
Milan Půček ◽  
František Ochrana ◽  
Milan Křápek ◽  
Ondřej H. Matyáš
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Technical Support ◽  
High Quality ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Managerial Practice ◽  
The Future

This paper deals with the analysis of risks which threaten the future sustainability and operations of agricultural museums in the Czech Republic. In the section on methodology, an applicable risk model has been proposed regarding the condition of museums in the Czech Republic. Using this model, the directors of agricultural museums can assess the most significant risks which may jeopardize the sustainability of museum operations over a three-year period. The greatest risks, according to museum directors, are a lack money for investment, the inability to retain high-quality staff, and issues with technical support for exhibitions. Assessing the importance of risk is positively associated with previous experiences of a particular type of risk, whereas the association of the importance of risk with previous managerial practice is rather inconclusive.

scholarly journals Modeling of Bank Credit Risk Management Using the Cost Risk Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Iryna Yanenkova ◽  
Yuliia Nehoda ◽  
Svetlana Drobyazko ◽  
Andrii Zavhorodnii ◽  
Lyudmyla Berezovska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Loan Default ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
Cost Risk

This article deals with the issue of managing bank credit risk using a cost risk model. Modeling of bank credit risk management was proposed based on neural-cell technologies, which expand the possibilities of modeling complex objects and processes and provide high reliability of credit risk determination. The purpose of the article is to improve and develop methodical support and practical recommendations for reducing the level of risk based on the value-at-risk (VaR) methodology and its subsequent combination with methods of fuzzy programming and symbiotic methodical support. The model makes it possible to create decision support subsystems for nonperforming loan management based on the neuro-fuzzy approach. For this paper, economic and mathematical tools (based on the VaR methodology) were used, which made it possible to analyze and forecast the dynamics of overdue payment; assess the quality of the credit portfolio of the bank; determine possible trends in bank development. A scientific and practical approach is taken to assess and forecast the degree of credit problematicity by qualitative criteria using a mathematical model based on a fuzzy technology, which can forecast the increased risk of loan default at an early stage in the process of monitoring the loan portfolio and model forecasting changes in the degree of credit problematicity on change of indicators. A methodology is proposed for the analysis and forecasting of indicators of troubled loan debt, which should be implemented as software and included in the decision support system during the process of monitoring the risk of the bank’s credit portfolio.

RISK MANAGEMENT IN PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP AND OTHER MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

EDPACS ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 6-19
Author(s):  
Alex Sidorenko ◽  
Vladimir Kilinkarov ◽  
Alexey Belkov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Public Private Partnership ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Private Partnership

Analysis of risk concept for technical systems using digital twins

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
Анатолий Михайлович Лепихин ◽  
Николай Андреевич Махутов ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин ◽  
Андрей Васильевич Юрченко
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Computer Modelling ◽  
Product Lifecycle Management ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Real Objects ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Active Research

Рассмотрены основные методологические аспекты анализа рисков технических систем с использованием цифровых двойников. Сформулирована концепция рисканализа и предложена базовая модель для ее реализации. Рассмотрены информационные аспекты анализа неопределенностей модели риска. Показано, что технологии цифровых двойников позволяют эффективно сочетать результаты компьютерного моделирования с данными мониторинга реальных объектов, обеспечивая более глубокий анализ объектов, с учетом множества вариантов конструкции, технологий и условий эксплуатации Development of technology and technical systems significantly increases in the volume of information. Traditional methods for designing, manufacturing and operating of technical systems do not allow processing such volumes of information. In this regard, the modern strategy for creating technical systems is based on the use of digital twins. Solving the problems of risk analysis and risk management for technical systems at all stages of the life cycle appears to be one of the promising areas for application of the digital twins technology. Despite of active research, using digital twins in risk analysis currently do not have appropriate methodological justifications and technical solutions in a number of key aspects. In particular, effective reductions of the order of risk models and quantifying uncertainty factors of various types have not been solved. The concept of the risk-informed decision making in product lifecycle management has not been implemented. In fact, there are very few publications on the risk analysis and risk management methodology using digital twins. The article discusses the main methodological aspects of risk analysis of technical systems using digital twins. The concept of risk analysis is formulated and a basic model for its implementation is proposed. The informational aspects of the analysis of uncertainties of the risk model are considered. It is shown that digital twin technologies allow effective combination of the results of computer modelling with the data monitoring of real objects, providing a deeper analysis of objects, taking into account a variety of design options, technologies and operating conditions.

scholarly journals Disease Risk Assessment in Potato Cultures

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei FLEȘERIU ◽  
Ioan OROIAN ◽  
Ioan BRAȘOVEAN ◽  
Constantin MIHAI - OROIAN ◽  
Daniela BORDEA
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Late Blight ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Environmentally Friendly ◽  
Potato Late Blight ◽  
Assessment And Evaluation ◽  
Three Stages

The aim of our study was to elaborate a system of risk analyse against Phytophtora infestans  (Mont) de Bary attack degree in potato, in connection with climatic factors, in Transylvanian Plane. The risk assessment for potato late blight attack was conducted in tree experimental points located in the counties of Transylvanian Plane: Alba, Cluj, and Mureș. The data were statistically processed using STATISTICA v. 7.0 programme. The analyse of phytosanitary risk assessment consisted in three stages: initiation of the risk assessment, evaluation of the risk analyse, and risk management. Initiation of the risk assessment and evaluation of the ris analyses were performed. The risk management against Phytophtora infestans (Mont) de Bary attack degree in potato initiated involves treatment strategies, using environmentally friendly products, combined to culture appropriate works and strategies, as culture rotations, disinfestations of equipments, and appropriate storage of tubers used for seeding.

Risman, a Method for Risk Management of Large Infrastructure Projects

1997 ◽  
pp. 265-272
Author(s):  
W.G. de Rijke ◽  
M.R. van der Does de Bye ◽  
R. Buvelot ◽  
J.K. Vrijling
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Infrastructure Projects

scholarly journals Assessing Quality Control Strategies for HbA1c Measurements From a Patient Risk Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 786-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Curtis A. Parvin ◽  
Nikola A. Baumann
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Measurement Procedure ◽  
Control Performance ◽  
Patient Harm ◽  
Management Guideline ◽  
Patient Risk ◽  
Predicted Probability

Background: Current laboratory risk management principles emphasize the importance of assessing laboratory quality control (QC) practices in terms of the risk of patient harm. Limited practical guidance or examples on how to do this are available. Methods: The patient risk model described in a published laboratory risk management guideline was combined with a recently reported approach to computing the predicted probability of patient harm to produce a risk management index (RMI) that compares the predicted probability of patient harm for a QC strategy to the acceptable probability of patient harm based on the expected severity of harm caused by an erroneously reported patient result. Results: Measurement procedure capability and quality control performance for two instruments measuring HbA1c in a laboratory were assessed by computing the RMI for each instrument individually and for the laboratory as a whole. Conclusions: This assessment provides a concrete example of how laboratory QC practices can be directly correlated to the risk of patient harm from erroneously reported patient results.

scholarly journals A Quantitative Assessment of Comprehensive Ecological Risk for a Loess Erosion Gully: A Case Study of Dujiashi Gully, Northern Shaanxi Province, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Liu ◽  
Xiaoying Liang ◽  
Hai Chen ◽  
Hang Zhang ◽  
Nanzhao Mao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Dominant Factor

As a tool that can effectively support ecosystem management, ecological risk assessment is closely related to the sustainable development of ecosystems and human well-being and has become an active area of research in ecology, geography and other disciplines. Taking Dujiashi Gully for the study of gully loess erosion, a comprehensive risk assessment system for identifying risk probability, sensitivity and impairment was established. The spatial distribution of comprehensive ecological risk was analyzed, the ecological risk management categories were simultaneously delineated based on the risk dominant factor and the risk management strategies were formulated in loess regions. The results were as follows: (1) the spatial differences in comprehensive ecological risk were significantly different in the research area. The regions with extremely high and high risk were mainly located in gully areas and secondary erosion gullies, which are in 28.02% of study area. The extremely low-risk areas covered 1/3 of the study area and were mainly distributed to the northwest and south of the study area, where hills are widely spaced. (2) The combined analysis of ecological risk and terrain found that the elevation decreased first and then rose but the comprehensive ecological risk increased first and then decreased from north to south. Comprehensive ecological risk and terrain generally showed an inverse relationship. (3) The study area was divided into four types of risk management categories. Risk monitoring zones, habitat recovery zones, monitoring and recovery zones and natural regulation zones encompass 14.84%, 12.44%, 26.47% and 46.25% of the study area, respectively. According to four types of risk management categories, different risk reduction measures were designed to improve regional sustainable development capacity. Risk identification and risk management categories based on comprehensive ecological risk model can design a sustainable development path for social ecosystem and local farmers and provide a method for sustainable development for similar gully landscapes.

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