Analysis of risk concept for technical systems using digital twins

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
Анатолий Михайлович Лепихин ◽  
Николай Андреевич Махутов ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин ◽  
Андрей Васильевич Юрченко
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Computer Modelling ◽  
Product Lifecycle Management ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Real Objects ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Active Research

Рассмотрены основные методологические аспекты анализа рисков технических систем с использованием цифровых двойников. Сформулирована концепция рисканализа и предложена базовая модель для ее реализации. Рассмотрены информационные аспекты анализа неопределенностей модели риска. Показано, что технологии цифровых двойников позволяют эффективно сочетать результаты компьютерного моделирования с данными мониторинга реальных объектов, обеспечивая более глубокий анализ объектов, с учетом множества вариантов конструкции, технологий и условий эксплуатации Development of technology and technical systems significantly increases in the volume of information. Traditional methods for designing, manufacturing and operating of technical systems do not allow processing such volumes of information. In this regard, the modern strategy for creating technical systems is based on the use of digital twins. Solving the problems of risk analysis and risk management for technical systems at all stages of the life cycle appears to be one of the promising areas for application of the digital twins technology. Despite of active research, using digital twins in risk analysis currently do not have appropriate methodological justifications and technical solutions in a number of key aspects. In particular, effective reductions of the order of risk models and quantifying uncertainty factors of various types have not been solved. The concept of the risk-informed decision making in product lifecycle management has not been implemented. In fact, there are very few publications on the risk analysis and risk management methodology using digital twins. The article discusses the main methodological aspects of risk analysis of technical systems using digital twins. The concept of risk analysis is formulated and a basic model for its implementation is proposed. The informational aspects of the analysis of uncertainties of the risk model are considered. It is shown that digital twin technologies allow effective combination of the results of computer modelling with the data monitoring of real objects, providing a deeper analysis of objects, taking into account a variety of design options, technologies and operating conditions.

Hazmat Routing: Alternate Routing Risk Analysis

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary A. Gordon ◽  
Richard R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Alternate Route ◽  
Railroad Industry ◽  
Short Line ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Alternate Routing ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Alternate Routes

The railroad industry is challenged by the complexity and cost of performing the alternate route analysis as required by the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) hazmat routing regulation. This is especially problematic to the regional and short line railroads for several reasons, including the unavailability of alternate routes and, as with the Class I railroads, it is a matter of cost and complexity of analysis. This research paper will look at developing a simplified risk model so as to reduce the cost and complexity of the analysis. This will be accomplished by, among other things, looking at the input parameters to the model for commonality so as to reduce the number (of input parameters) and look at three operating conditions for the analysis. They are: 1) the premise that there are available alternate routes, 2) that alternate routes may not be feasible operationally or economically and 3) that there are no alternate routes. This research and analysis will result in a model that is less complex and costly to run and address the concerns and challenges of the short line and regional railroads.

Developing a tailored RBS linking to BIM for risk management of bridge projects

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 727-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Zou ◽  
Arto Kiviniemi ◽  
Stephen W. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Traditional Method ◽  
Information Model ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Technical Systems

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to address the current theoretical gap in integrating knowledge and experience into Building Information Model (BIM) for risk management of bridge projects by developing a tailored Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) and formalising an active link between the resulting RBS and BIM. Design/methodology/approach A three-step approach is used in this study to develop a tailored RBS for bridge projects and a conceptual model for the linkage between the RBS and BIM. First, the integrated bridge information model is in concept separated into four levels of contents (LOCs) and six technical systems based on analysis of the Industry Foundation Classes specification, a critical review of previous studies and authors’ project experience. The second step develops a knowledge-based risk database through an extensive collection of risk data, a process of data mining, and further assessment and translation of data. A critical analysis is conducted in the last step to determine on which level the different risks should be allocated to bridge projects and to propose a conceptual model for linking the tailored RBS to the four LOCs and six technical systems of BIM. Findings The findings suggest that the traditional method and BIM can be merged as an integrated solution for risk management by establishing the linkage between RBS and BIM. This solution can take advantage of both the traditional method and BIM for managing risks. On the one hand, RBS enables risk information to be stored in a formal structure, used and communicated effectively. On the other hand, some features of BIM such as 3D visualisation and 4D construction scheduling can facilitate the risk identification, analysis, and communication at an early project stage. Research limitations/implications A limitation is that RBS is a qualitative technique and only plays a limited role in quantitative risk analysis. As a result, when implementing this proposed method, further techniques may be needed for assisting quantitative risk analysis, evaluation, and treatment. Another limitation is that the proposed method has not yet been implemented for validation in practice. Hence, recommendations for future research are to: improve the quantitative risk analysis and treatment capabilities of this proposed solution; develop computer tools to support the solution; integrate the linkage into a traditional workflow; and test this solution in some small and large projects for validation. Practical implications Through linking risk information to BIM, project participants could check and review the linked information for identifying potential risks and seeking possible mitigation measures, when project information is being transferred between different people or forwarded to the next phase. Originality/value This study contributes to the theoretical development for aligning traditional methods and BIM for risk management, by introducing a new conceptual model for linking RBS to BIM.

Based on the ISM Model of REITs Endowment Property Financing Risk Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 2523-2526
Author(s):  
Hai Min Wei ◽  
Lian Yue
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Financing Risk ◽  
Financing Pattern ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship

Endowment property is prevalent a new form of social endowment in China in recent years, But financing has become one of the bottleneck for its smooth development. In this paper, the author combing the various risk factors of REITs financing pattern, using ISM model to analysis the factors involved in grading evaluation, rendering risk model diagram to explain the structure, resulting the relationship between the various risk factors, clear the direction of risk management

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Risk Management for Cultural Organizations.The Example of Agricultural Museums in the Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-122
Author(s):  
Michal Plaček ◽  
Milan Půček ◽  
František Ochrana ◽  
Milan Křápek ◽  
Ondřej H. Matyáš
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Technical Support ◽  
High Quality ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Managerial Practice ◽  
The Future

This paper deals with the analysis of risks which threaten the future sustainability and operations of agricultural museums in the Czech Republic. In the section on methodology, an applicable risk model has been proposed regarding the condition of museums in the Czech Republic. Using this model, the directors of agricultural museums can assess the most significant risks which may jeopardize the sustainability of museum operations over a three-year period. The greatest risks, according to museum directors, are a lack money for investment, the inability to retain high-quality staff, and issues with technical support for exhibitions. Assessing the importance of risk is positively associated with previous experiences of a particular type of risk, whereas the association of the importance of risk with previous managerial practice is rather inconclusive.

scholarly journals Modeling of Bank Credit Risk Management Using the Cost Risk Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Iryna Yanenkova ◽  
Yuliia Nehoda ◽  
Svetlana Drobyazko ◽  
Andrii Zavhorodnii ◽  
Lyudmyla Berezovska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Loan Default ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
Cost Risk

This article deals with the issue of managing bank credit risk using a cost risk model. Modeling of bank credit risk management was proposed based on neural-cell technologies, which expand the possibilities of modeling complex objects and processes and provide high reliability of credit risk determination. The purpose of the article is to improve and develop methodical support and practical recommendations for reducing the level of risk based on the value-at-risk (VaR) methodology and its subsequent combination with methods of fuzzy programming and symbiotic methodical support. The model makes it possible to create decision support subsystems for nonperforming loan management based on the neuro-fuzzy approach. For this paper, economic and mathematical tools (based on the VaR methodology) were used, which made it possible to analyze and forecast the dynamics of overdue payment; assess the quality of the credit portfolio of the bank; determine possible trends in bank development. A scientific and practical approach is taken to assess and forecast the degree of credit problematicity by qualitative criteria using a mathematical model based on a fuzzy technology, which can forecast the increased risk of loan default at an early stage in the process of monitoring the loan portfolio and model forecasting changes in the degree of credit problematicity on change of indicators. A methodology is proposed for the analysis and forecasting of indicators of troubled loan debt, which should be implemented as software and included in the decision support system during the process of monitoring the risk of the bank’s credit portfolio.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

Analyzing common approaches of accident models for risk management in socio-technical systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kiwan ◽  
D.V. Berezkin ◽  
M. Raad ◽  
B. Rasheed
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Sociotechnical Systems ◽  
Technical Aspects ◽  
The Social ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Traditional Approaches

Statement of a problem. One of the main tasks today is to prevent accidents in complex systems, which requires determining their cause. In this regard, several theories and models of the causality of accidents are being developed. Traditional approaches to accident modeling are not sufficient for the analysis of accidents occurring in complex environments such as socio-technical systems, since an accident is not the result of individual component failure or human error. Therefore, we need more systematic methods for the investigation and modeling of accidents. Purpose. Conduct a comparative analysis of accident models in complex systems, identify the strengths and weaknesses of each of these models, and study the feasibility of their use in risk management in socio-technical systems. The paper analyzes the main approaches of accident modeling and their limitations in determining the cause-and-effect relationships and dynamics of modern complex systems. the methodologies to safety and accident models in sociotechnical systems based on systems theory are discussed. The complexity of sociotechnical systems requires new methodologies for modeling the development of emergency management. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the socio-technical system as a whole and to focus on the simultaneous consideration of the social and technical aspects of the systems. When modeling accidents, it is necessary to take into account the social structures and processes of social interaction, the cultural environment, individual characteristics of a person, such as their abilities and motivation, as well as the engineering design and technical aspects of systems. Practical importance. Based on analyzing various techniques for modeling accidents, as well as studying the examples used in modeling several previous accidents and review the results of this modeling, it is concluded that it is necessary to improve the modeling techniques. The result was the appearance of hybrid models of risk management in socio-technical systems, which we will consider in detail in our next work.

Machine learning-based digital twins reduce seasonal remapping in aeroderivative gas turbines

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Nick Petro ◽  
Felipe Lopez
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Pilot Site ◽  
Digital Twin ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Unacceptable Behavior ◽  
External Conditions

Abstract Aeroderivative gas turbines have their combustion set points adjusted periodically in a process known as remapping. Even turbines that perform well after remapping may produce unacceptable behavior when external conditions change. This article introduces a digital twin that uses real-time measurements of combustor acoustics and emissions in a machine learning model that tracks recent operating conditions. The digital twin is leveraged by an optimizer that select adjustments that allow the unit to maintain combustor dynamics and emissions in compliance without seasonal remapping. Results from a pilot site demonstrate that the proposed approach can allow a GE LM6000PD unit to operate for ten months without seasonal remapping while adjusting to changes in ambient temperature (4 - 38 °C) and to different fuel compositions.

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