scholarly journals EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF ROAD GEOMETRY, ENVIRONMENT, AND TRAFFIC VOLUME ON ROLLOVER CRASHES

Transport ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Hosseinpour ◽  
Ahmad Shukri Yahaya ◽  
Ahmad Farhan Sadullah ◽  
Noriszura Ismail ◽  
Seyed Mohammad Reza Ghadiri
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Count Data Models ◽  
Vehicle Traffic ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Road Geometry ◽  
Safety Countermeasures ◽  
Horizontal Curvature

There are a number of factors that cause motor vehicles to rollover. However, the impacts of roadway characteristics on rollover crashes have rarely been addressed in the literature. This study aims to apply a set of crash prediction models in order to estimate the number of rollovers as a function of road geometry, the environment, and traffic conditions. To this end, seven count-data models, including Poisson (PM), negative binomial (NB), heterogeneous negative binomial (HTNB), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), hurdle Poisson (HP), and hurdle negative binomial (HNB) models, were developed and compared using crash data collected on 448 segments of Malaysian federal roads. The results showed that the HTNB was the best-fit model among the others to model the frequency of rollovers. The variables Light-Vehicle Traffic (LVT), horizontal curvature, access points, speed limit, and centreline median were positively associated with the crash frequency, while UnPaved Shoulder Width (UPSW) and Heavy-Vehicle Traffic (HVT) were found to have the opposite effect. The findings of this study suggest that rollovers could potentially be reduced by developing road safety countermeasures, such as access management of driveways, straightening sharp horizontal curves, widening shoulder width, better design of centreline medians, and posting lower speed limits and warning signs in areas with higher rollover tendency.

Freeway Truck Traffic Safety in Wyoming: Crash Characteristics and Prediction Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (10) ◽  
pp. 333-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahmidul Haq ◽  
Milan Zlatkovic ◽  
Khaled Ksaibati
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Truck Traffic ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Horizontal Curves ◽  
Rate Analysis ◽  
Road Geometry

The State of Wyoming experiences a high percentage of truck traffic along all its highways, especially Interstate 80 (I-80). The increased interactions between trucks and other vehicles have raised many operational and safety concerns. This paper presents a safety analysis and a development of safety performance functions (SPFs) along I-80, with a focus on truck crashes. Nine years of historical crash data in Wyoming (2008–2016) were used to observe the involvement of light, medium, and heavy trucks in crashes. Analysis of the major contributory factors showed that 54% of the total truck-related crashes occurred during icy road conditions and about 46% during snowy weather conditions, and approximately 45% involved driving too fast and driving in improper lane. The analysis also included segments with horizontal curves and vertical grades and their impacts on truck crashes. The crash rate analysis showed higher truck crash rate compared with total crash rate considering equal vehicle miles traveled as exposure. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was applied to develop Wyoming-specific SPFs for various truck crash types. The effects of traffic, road geometry characteristics, and weather parameters influencing different truck-related crashes were quantified from these models. Downgrades and steep upgrade sections were found to increase truck-related crashes. The number of rainy days per year was found to be a significant variable affecting truck-related crashes. On the other hand, the presence of climbing lanes has significant safety benefits.

scholarly journals GLM-Based Flexible Monitoring Methods: An Application to Real-Time Highway Safety Surveillance

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 362
Author(s):  
Arshad Jamal ◽  
Tahir Mahmood ◽  
Muhamad Riaz ◽  
Hassan M. Al-Ahmadi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Control Charts ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Highway Safety ◽  
Monitoring Methods ◽  
Count Data Models ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Safety Surveillance ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Best Fit

Statistical modeling of historical crash data can provide essential insights to safety managers for proactive highway safety management. While numerous studies have contributed to the advancement from the statistical methodological front, minimal research efforts have been dedicated to real-time monitoring of highway safety situations. This study advocates the use of statistical monitoring methods for real-time highway safety surveillance using three years of crash data for rural highways in Saudi Arabia. First, three well-known count data models (Poisson, negative binomial, and Conway–Maxwell–Poisson) are applied to identify the best fit model for the number of crashes. Conway–Maxwell–Poisson was identified as the best fit model, which was used to find the significant explanatory variables for the number of crashes. The results revealed that the road type and road surface conditions significantly contribute to the number of crashes. From the perspective of real-time highway safety monitoring, generalized linear model (GLM)-based exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts are proposed using the randomized quantile residuals and deviance residuals of Conway–Maxwell (COM)–Poisson regression. A detailed simulation-based study is designed for predictive performance evaluation of the proposed control charts with existing counterparts (i.e., Shewhart charts) in terms of the run-length properties. The study results showed that the EWMA type control charts have better detection ability compared with the CUSUM type and Shewhart control charts under small and/or moderate shift sizes. Finally, the proposed monitoring methods are successfully implemented on actual traffic crash data to highlight the efficacy of the proposed methods. The outcome of this study could provide the analysts with insights to plan sound policy recommendations for achieving desired safety goals.

scholarly journals Evaluating Safety of Type-A Weaving Sections Using Geometric and Traffic Operational Factors

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Venkata Mallipaddi ◽  
Michael Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Type A ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Single Vehicle ◽  
Crash Modification Factors ◽  
Operational Factors

The efficiency and safety of type-A freeway weaving sections in urban areas are constrained by recurrent bottlenecks. Limited space in freeway weaving sections cause traffic congestion and crashes during peak-hours. Various factors, including length of weaving section, continuity of lanes, and number of lanes will have significant effects on the level of service and safety performance of the weaving sections. Eight years (2010-2017) of crash data in the type-A weaving sections was used in this analysis. The objective of this study aims to evaluate geometric design factors and operational factors on total crashes and each of the four crash types: rear-end, sideswipe, angle, and single-vehicle in type-A weaving sections using traditional negative binomial approach and develop crash modification factors (CMFs) to improve safety in the type-A weaving section. The results revealed that on-ramp traffic per hour, off-ramp traffic per hour, non-weaving traffic per hour, weaving ratio, length of the weaving section, direction of the freeway, width of inside shoulder, and width of outside shoulder were influencing crashes in type-A weaving sections. Furthermore, the estimated crash modification factors (CMFs) result revealed that total crashes gradually decrease as inside shoulder width increases. This implies that widening inside shoulder width have positive effects on weaving section safety. In addition, ramp metering, and advisory warning signs could improve safety in type-A weaving sections.

Effects of Geometric Characteristics on Head-On Crash Incidence on Two-Lane Roads in Connecticut

2005 ◽  
Vol 1908 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Zhang ◽  
John N. Ivan
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Speed Limit ◽  
Horizontal Curve ◽  
Rural Roads ◽  
Change Rate ◽  
Absolute Change ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Horizontal Curvature

Negative binomial generalized linear models were used to evaluate the effects of roadway geometric features on the incidence of head-on crashes on two-lane rural roads in Connecticut. Six hundred fifty-five highway segments—each with a uniform length of 1 km and no intersections with signal or stop control on the major road approaches—were selected for analysis. Head-on crash data were collected for these segments from 1996 through 2001. Variables found to influence the incidence of head-on crashes significantly were speed limit, sum of absolute change rate of horizontal curvature, maximum degree of horizontal curve, and sum of absolute change rate of vertical curvature. Three models were estimated with different combinations of these four variables, and the performance of the models was tested by using Akaike's information criterion. The number of crashes was found to increase with each of these variables except for speed limit. Variables such as lane and shoulder width were not found to be significant for explaining the incidence of head-on crashes. The results suggest that to reduce the incidence of head-on crashes on two-lane roads, it is more effective to reduce the number and degree of horizontal and vertical curves than to widen the pavement.

Effects of Varying Dispersion Parameter of Poisson–Gamma Models on Estimation of Confidence Intervals of Crash Prediction Models

2008 ◽  
Vol 2061 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srinivas Reddy Geedipally ◽  
Dominique Lord
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Dispersion Parameter ◽  
Transportation Safety ◽  
Dispersion Parameters ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Varying Dispersion ◽  
Using Data

In estimating safety performance, the most common probabilistic structures of the popular statistical models used by transportation safety analysts for modeling motor vehicle crashes are the traditional Poisson and Poisson–gamma (or negative binomial) distributions. Because crash data often exhibit overdispersion, Poisson–gamma models are usually the preferred model. The dispersion parameter of Poisson–gamma models had been assumed to be fixed, but recent research in highway safety has shown that the parameter can potentially be dependent on the covari-ates, especially for flow-only models. Given that the dispersion parameter is a key variable for computing confidence intervals, there is reason to believe that a varying dispersion parameter could affect the computation of confidence intervals compared with confidence intervals produced from Poisson–gamma models with a fixed dispersion parameter. This study evaluates whether the varying dispersion parameter affects the computation of the confidence intervals for the gamma mean (m) and predicted response (y) on sites that have not been used for estimating the predictive model. To accomplish that objective, predictive models with fixed and varying dispersion parameters were estimated by using data collected in California at 537 three-leg rural unsignalized intersections. The study shows that models developed with a varying dispersion parameter greatly influence the confidence intervals of the gamma mean and predictive response. More specifically, models with a varying dispersion parameter usually produce smaller confidence intervals, and hence more precise estimates, than models with a fixed dispersion parameter, both for the gamma mean and for the predicted response. Therefore, it is recommended to develop models with a varying dispersion whenever possible, especially if they are used for screening purposes.

A Comparative Analysis of Factors Affecting the Frequency and Severity of Freight-Involved and Non-Freight Crashes on a Major Freight Corridor Freeway

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (34) ◽  
pp. 49-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel G. Taylor ◽  
Brendan J. Russo ◽  
Emmanuel James
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Traffic Crashes ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Severity Prediction

Traffic crashes cost society billions of dollars each year as a result of property damage, injuries, and fatalities. Additionally, traffic crashes have a negative impact on mobility, as they are a primary cause of non-recurring delay. With the Interstate 10 corridor between the ports of Los Angeles and Houston being one of the most vital links for goods movement across the United States, safety and mobility along this freeway, particularly for freight traffic, are of significant concern. This study, which utilized six years of crash data from the state of Arizona, explores factors affecting the frequency and severity of crashes along the Arizona portion of the I-10 corridor, with a particular focus on freight-related crashes. The safety performance along the I-10 is analyzed through the development of crash frequency and severity prediction models using integrated crash, roadway, traffic, and environmental data. Negative binomial and ordered logit models, with the incorporation of random parameters, were estimated to provide a detailed understanding of factors associated with freight-involved crashes and how they compare to non-freight crashes in terms of frequency and severity. The results showed that several roadway- crash-, vehicle-, and person-related variables were associated with the frequency and/or severity of crashes along the study corridor. These findings provide important insights which can be used to develop or plan countermeasures aimed at improving the safety and efficiency of freight travel, which may include new ITS technologies, and targeted educational and enforcement campaigns.

scholarly journals The variability of urban safety performance functions for different road elements: an Italian case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Intini ◽  
Nicola Berloco ◽  
Gabriele Cavalluzzi ◽  
Dominique Lord ◽  
Vittorio Ranieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Common Trends ◽  
Main Research ◽  
Pavement Markings ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Sight Distance ◽  
Safety Performance Functions ◽  
Urban Safety

Abstract Background Urban safety performance functions are used to predict crash frequencies, mostly based on Negative Binomial (NB) count models. They could be differentiated for considering homogeneous subsets of segments/intersections and different predictors. Materials and methods The main research questions concerned: a) finding the best possible subsets for segments and intersections for safety modelling, by discussing the related problems and inquiring into the variability of predictors within the subsets; b) comparing the modelling results with the existing literature to highlight common trends and/or main differences; c) assessing the importance of additional crash predictors, besides traditional variables. In the context of a National research project, traffic volumes, geometric, control and additional variables were collected for road segments and intersections in the City of Bari, Italy, with 1500 fatal+injury related crashes (2012–2016). Six NB models were developed for: one/two-way homogeneous segments, three/four-legged, signalized/unsignalized intersections. Results Crash predictors greatly vary within the different subsets considered. The effect of vertical signs on minor roads/driveways, critical sight distance, cycle crossings, pavement/markings maintenance was specifically discussed. Some common trends but also differences in both types and effect of crash predictors were found by comparing results with literature. Conclusion The disaggregation of urban crash prediction models by considering different subsets of segments and intersections helps in revealing the specific influence of some predictors. Local characteristics may influence the relationships between well-established crash predictors and crash frequencies. A significant part of the urban crash frequency variability remains unexplained, thus encouraging research on this topic.

scholarly journals Beta-binomial models for meta-analysis with binary outcomes: Variations, extensions, and additional insights from econometrics

2021 ◽  
pp. 263208432199622
Author(s):  
Tim Mathes ◽  
Oliver Kuss
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Binary Outcomes ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Panel Count Data ◽  
Count Data Models ◽  
Meta Analyses

Background Meta-analysis of systematically reviewed studies on interventions is the cornerstone of evidence based medicine. In the following, we will introduce the common-beta beta-binomial (BB) model for meta-analysis with binary outcomes and elucidate its equivalence to panel count data models. Methods We present a variation of the standard “common-rho” BB (BBST model) for meta-analysis, namely a “common-beta” BB model. This model has an interesting connection to fixed-effect negative binomial regression models (FE-NegBin) for panel count data. Using this equivalence, it is possible to estimate an extension of the FE-NegBin with an additional multiplicative overdispersion term (RE-NegBin), while preserving a closed form likelihood. An advantage due to the connection to econometric models is, that the models can be easily implemented because “standard” statistical software for panel count data can be used. We illustrate the methods with two real-world example datasets. Furthermore, we show the results of a small-scale simulation study that compares the new models to the BBST. The input parameters of the simulation were informed by actually performed meta-analysis. Results In both example data sets, the NegBin, in particular the RE-NegBin showed a smaller effect and had narrower 95%-confidence intervals. In our simulation study, median bias was negligible for all methods, but the upper quartile for median bias suggested that BBST is most affected by positive bias. Regarding coverage probability, BBST and the RE-NegBin model outperformed the FE-NegBin model. Conclusion For meta-analyses with binary outcomes, the considered common-beta BB models may be valuable extensions to the family of BB models.

Examining Driver Injury Severity in Single-Vehicle Road Departure Crashes Involving Large Trucks

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110101
Author(s):  
Mehdi Hosseinpour ◽  
Kirolos Haleem
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Natural Logarithm ◽  
Concrete Barriers ◽  
Local Roads ◽  
Single Vehicle ◽  
Safety Countermeasures ◽  
Injury Severities

Road departure (RD) crashes are among the most severe crashes that can result in fatal or serious injuries, especially when involving large trucks. Most previous studies neglected to incorporate both roadside and median hazards into large-truck RD crash severity analysis. The objective of this study was to identify the significant factors affecting driver injury severity in single-vehicle RD crashes involving large trucks. A random-parameters ordered probit (RPOP) model was developed using extensive crash data collected on roadways in the state of Kentucky between 2015 and 2019. The RPOP model results showed that the effect of local roadways, the natural logarithm of annual average daily traffic (AADT), the presence of median concrete barriers, cable barrier-involved collisions, and dry surfaces were found to be random across the crash observations. The results also showed that older drivers, ejected drivers, and drivers trapped in their truck were more likely to sustain severe single-vehicle RD crashes. Other variables increasing the probability of driver injury severity have included rural areas, dry road surfaces, higher speed limits, single-unit truck types, principal arterials, overturning-consequences, truck fire occurrence, segments with median concrete barriers, and roadside fixed object strikes. On the other hand, wearing seatbelt, local roads and minor collectors, higher AADT, and hitting median cable barriers were associated with lower injury severities. Potential safety countermeasures from the study findings include installing median cable barriers and flattening steep roadside embankments along those roadway stretches with high history of RD large-truck-related crashes.

Does Displaying Safety Messages on Dynamic Message Signs have Measurable Impacts on Crash Risk?

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110444
Author(s):  
Megat-Usamah Megat-Johari ◽  
Nusayba Megat-Johari ◽  
Peter T. Savolainen ◽  
Timothy J. Gates ◽  
Eva Kassens-Noor
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Driver Behavior ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Crash Risk ◽  
Traffic Crashes ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Safety Issues ◽  
Dynamic Message Signs ◽  
Safety Message ◽  
Message Signs

Transportation agencies have increasingly been using dynamic message signs (DMS) to communicate safety messages in an effort to both increase awareness of important safety issues and to influence driver behavior. Despite their widespread use, evaluations as to potential impacts on driver behavior, and the resultant impacts on traffic crashes, have been very limited. This study addresses this gap in the extant literature and assesses the relationship between traffic crashes and the frequency with which various types of safety messages are displayed. Safety message data were collected from a total of 202 DMS on freeways across the state of Michigan between 2014 and 2018. These data were integrated with traffic volume, roadway geometry, and crash data for segments that were located downstream of each DMS. A series of random parameters negative binomial models were estimated to examine total, speeding-related, and nighttime crashes based on historical messaging data while controlling for other site-specific factors. The results did not show any significant differences with respect to total crashes. Marginal declines in nighttime crashes were observed at locations with more frequent messages related to impaired driving, though these differences were also not statistically significant. Finally, speeding-related crashes were significantly less frequent near DMS that showed higher numbers of messages related to speeding or tailgating. Important issues are highlighted with respect to methodological concerns that arise in the analysis of such data. Field research is warranted to investigate potential impacts on driving behavior at the level of individual drivers.

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