scholarly journals Relative mispricing and takeover likelihood

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-715
Author(s):  
Keming Li ◽  

<abstract> <p>This paper examines the effect of acquirer likelihood on future stock returns. In sharp contrast to prior findings, acquirer likelihood is a strong and negative predictor of cross-sectional future returns after controlling for target likelihood. If takeover exposure represents a risk premium, the effect on stock valuation should only present in either likelihood measure (acquirer or target likelihood). This evidence casts doubt on the rational risk explanation, but is consistent with a relative mispricing story. Investors take positions accordingly to explore profits from takeovers. Profits from trading strategy based on takeover probability are concentrated in stocks with high misvaluation characteristics, including small size, value, high momentum, high investment, and low turnover firms, as well as both high and low issuance (or accrual) firms.</p> </abstract>

2019 ◽  
Vol IV (I) ◽  
pp. 30-38
Author(s):  
Maria Sultana ◽  
Muhammad Imran ◽  
Muhammad Amjad Saleem

The fundamental structure of the present theory of asset pricing underscored clarifying the path as to how the systematic risk is estimated and how investors are adapted to behavior for such risk. The mixed expense of debt and equity that an association should procure to raise funds for its assignments impacts its stock returns through investment choices and is an additional significant segment of business valuation work on the grounds that for putting resources into more risky resources, investors request better yields or higher returns, for legitimizing better yields this risk premium emerging from such risks is included in the returns. Hence, in clarifying portfolio returns, the three-factor model is increased with WACC to analyze its logical force that if WACC is estimated by the market or not through multivariate regressions. Two principle results are deduced by the examination; first; the findings attest to the presence of market premium, size impact, value impact, WACC premium in the equity market of Pakistan. Second, however generally exciting with exceptional interest, when contrasted with FF unique 3-factor model, the models which join WACC outperformed, which also affirmed from Adj.R2 results.


2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 234-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
Vidisha Garg

Executive Summary Cross-sectional volatility measures dispersion of security returns at a particular point of time. It has received very little focus in research. This article studies the cross-section of volatility in the context of economies of Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Korea, and South Africa (BRIICKS). The analysis is done in two parts. The first part deals with systematic volatility (SV), that is, cross-sectional variation of stock returns owing to their exposure to market volatility measure ( French, Schwert, & Stambaugh, 1987 ). The second part deals with unsystematic volatility (UV), measured by the residual variance of stocks in a given period by using error terms obtained from Fama–French model. The study finds that high SV portfolios exhibit low returns in case of Brazil, South Korea, and Russia. The risk premium is found to be statistically significantly negative for these countries. This finding is consistent with Ang et al. and is indicative of hedging motive of investors in these markets. Results for other sample countries are somewhat puzzling. No significant risk premiums are reported for India and China. Significantly positive risk premiums are observed for South Africa and Indonesia. Further, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) seems to be a poor descriptor of returns on systematic risk loading sorted portfolios while FF is able to explain returns on all portfolios except high SV loading portfolio (i.e., P1) in case of South Africa which seems to be an asset pricing anomaly. It is further observed that high UV portfolios exhibit high returns in all the sample countries except China. In the Chinese market, the estimated risk premium is statistically significantly negative. This negative risk premium is inconsistent with the theory that predicts that investors demand risk compensation for imperfect diversification. The remaining sample countries show significantly positive risk premium. CAPM does not seem to be a suitable descriptor for returns on UV sorted portfolios. The FF model does a better job but still fails to explain the returns on high UV sorted portfolio in case of Brazil and China and low UV sorted portfolio in South Africa. The findings are relevant for global fund managers who plan to develop emerging market strategies for asset allocation. The study contributes to portfolio management as well as market efficiency literature for emerging economies.


2010 ◽  
Vol 85 (3) ◽  
pp. 937-978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongcheol Kim ◽  
Yaxuan Qi

ABSTRACT: This study examines whether and how earnings quality, measured as accruals quality (AQ), affects the cost of equity capital. Using two-stage cross-sectional regression tests, we find that the AQ risk factor is significantly priced, after controlling for low-priced stocks. This result is robust in tests using individual stocks, various portfolio formations, and different beta estimations. Furthermore, we show that AQ and its pricing effect systematically vary with business cycles and macroeconomic variables. In particular, this pricing effect is prominent in total AQ and innate AQ but not in discretionary AQ. The risk premium associated with AQ exists only in economic expansion but not in recession periods. Poorer AQ firms are more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. The risk premium and the dispersion of AQ are also related to future economic activity. Overall, our results suggest that AQ contributes to the cost of equity capital and that its pricing effect is associated with fundamental risk.


2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 707-735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Turan G. Bali ◽  
Hao Zhou

AbstractA conditional asset pricing model with risk and uncertainty implies that the time-varying exposures of equity portfolios to the market and uncertainty factors carry positive risk premia. The empirical results from the size, book-to-market, momentum, and industry portfolios indicate that the conditional covariances of equity portfolios with market and uncertainty predict the time-series and cross-sectional variation in stock returns. We find that equity portfolios that are highly correlated with economic uncertainty proxied by the variance risk premium (VRP) carry a significant annualized 8% premium relative to portfolios that are minimally correlated with VRP.


Author(s):  
Ying Tay Lee ◽  
Devinaga Rasiah ◽  
Ming Ming Lai

Human rights and fundamental freedoms such as economic, political, and press freedoms vary widely from country to country. It creates opportunity and risk in investment decisions. Thus, this study is carried out to examine if the explanatory power of the model for capital asset pricing could be improved when these human rights movement indices are included in the model. The sample for this study comprises of 495 stocks listed in Bursa Malaysia, covering the sampling period from 2003 to 2013. The model applied in this study employed the pooled ordinary least square regression estimation. In addition, the robustness of the model is tested by using firm size as a controlled variable. The findings show that market beta as well as the economic and press freedom indices could explain the cross-sectional stock returns of the Malaysian stock market. By controlling the firm size, it adds marginally to the explanation of the extended CAP model which incorporated economic, political, and press freedom indices.


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