Market Reaction to Abnormal Inventory Growth: Evidence for Managerial Decision-Making

Prior research demonstrates that manufacturing firms increase production (relative to sales) to transfer fixed costs from cost of goods sold (COGS) to inventory accounts, thereby increasing income to reach or surpass earnings thresholds. We examine how the market reacts to this earnings management strategy. We find that investors respond positively to inventory growth based on an expectation of increased future sales; however, this signal is weaker for inventory manipulators. Further, the market premium from meeting or beating analyst earnings forecasts by manipulating inventory is smaller than the premium for achieving this threshold absent inventory manipulation or through accrual manipulation. Finally, we examine firms considered to be “serial” inventory manipulators, finding that the market consistently discounts earnings beats for these firms, suggesting that inventory manipulation erodes investor confidence in firms’ earnings. Collectively, our results provide new insights into a challenge facing operations managers and finance managers in manufacturing firms.

Does the fundamental indexation portfolio perform better? An Indian investigation

Purpose This study aims to compare the fundamental indexation (FI) portfolio vis-à-vis the cap-weighted index (CWI). It also explored the return-generating attributes of the FI portfolios. Design/methodology/approach This study extracted relevant data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy’s Prowess database from March 1996 to March 2017 from a sample of National Stock Exchange (NSE) 500 companies. The FI portfolios were constructed with First_50 and Next_50 stocks using the latest and five years of trailing average aggregations. Further, the regression technique was used to identify the return-generating attributes of FI portfolios. Findings It was found that the FI portfolios based on First_50 and Next_50 stocks outperformed the CWI (i.e. NSE_First_50 and NSE_Next_50) in the Indian capital market, and between the two, the FI portfolios based on Next_50 stocks were superior to the FI portfolios based on First_50 stocks. The cross-sectional superiority of FI portfolios is obvious if they are sorted according to four fundamentals, namely, total income, sales, operating cash flows and profit before depreciation interest tax and amortisation. The return-generating process of FI portfolios is well-explained by market premium followed by value premium and investment premium. Practical implications This study may enable portfolio managers and investors to measure FI portfolios’ superiority in the Indian capital market and identify the return-generating attributes of FI portfolios so that the loadings can be switched amongst different priced factors for higher yield. Further, this study extends the FI literature, providing evidence from one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. Originality/value To the best of the knowledge, this is amongst the first few studies to explore the performance of FI portfolios vis-à-vis CWIs in India, and to use Fama and French (2015) asset pricing models to understand the return-generating attributes of FI portfolios. It is also novel in the sense that it considers the FI portfolios for a longer duration, predating 1997 and coinciding with the inception of CWIs, namely, NSE_First_50 (inception: 1995) and NSE_Next_50 (inception: 1996), reducing the apprehensions of data-snooping biases.

Market Premium and Macroeconomic Factors as Determinants of Industry Premium: Evidence from Emerging Economies

In this study, we examine the equity (industry) premium of seventeen nonfinancial sectors covering sample 306 firms using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2018. Two-stage least square (2SLS) method is applied to estimate the macro-based multifactor model. It is found that the market premium and the interest rate factors are significantly affecting the industry equity premium of all the nonfinancial sectors. However, there exists a positive effect of other macroeconomic variables such as money supply, foreign direct investment, and industrial production which is different for the different sectors based on its nature of product and services they offered. The industries based on their product development which are linked to particular macroeconomic variables have more effect than others such as increase in money supply which cannot increase the sale of pharmaceutical products until needed. Similarly, an interesting insight reveals that industries producing seasonal goods, e.g., food producing, are not very much affected by macroeconomic variables but the change in seasons and similar results also revealed for tobacco industry.

INDIAN RETAIL INVESTORS AND INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERS: PRE AND POST COVID ANALYSIS

Going public is one of the most popular forms of raising funds for expansion and growth of business. Since the liberalisation of economy in 1991, more than 1500 companies have listed themselves on the exchange. And the Indian stock markets keep expanding with increasing number of public offers in both mainstream and SME category. This paper compares the IPOs of Indian markets in broadly two phases-pre covid and post covid. A sample of 242 listings across eleven years from 2010-2020 are considered for the study. A comparison based on details of listing, listing gains etc reveal a more active retail investor segment. Overoptimism and urge to synthesise short term gains contribute to such gains. This is further backed by analysis of search results in the Indian region using google trends. Tail events such as covid-19 alter the way Indian investors behave and invest in IPOs and make their investments more on basis of speculative measures such as grey market premium, than actual fundamentals of the issue under consideration.

Fuzzy regression model for forecasting impact of venture capital network and underwriter network on IPO premium

In recent years, social network analysis is one of the top 20 fields of artificial intelligence. Based on the network signal theory, this study examines the influence of the dual network embeddedness on the price premiums of Chinese initial public offerings (IPOs). In this paper we proposed fuzzy regression model for forecasting the impact of venture capital network and underwriter network on IPO premium based on some hypothesis. We find that: (1) Enterprises embedded in the central position of venture capital network will increase the IPO secondary market premium; (2) Secondly, employing underwriter in the central position of underwriting network will increase the IPO secondary market premium; (3) As venture capital are getting closer to the central position of venture capital network, the influence of underwriter network centrality in underwriting network on the increase of IPO secondary market reaction will gradually weaken. The research shows that occupying central position both in venture capital syndication network and underwriting network have the functions of sending signals, then increase the IPO secondary market premium, but the functions of different network signals will replace each other.

Risk of Insolvency and Return of Shares: Empirical Analysis of Altman's Z-Score in the Peruvian Mining Sector Between 2008-2018

This research pretends to evaluate the significance of the insolvency risk, referred by Altman's Z-Score, in the explanation of the historical return of the 7 most liquid mining companies listed in the Lima Stock Exchange based on a Market Return Model (MRM) under a cross-sectional approach. In this sense, daily data was collected from the S&P/BVL Peru Select index and the Peruvian 10-year Sovereign Bond between 2008-2018, approximated quarterly by the geometric average to homogenize them with the frequency of the Z. Thus, two central results were obtained: 1) The Z-Score, as an estimator of insolvency risk, is not valid to explain the behavior of the historical return of the shares, and 2) The Market Premium is statistically significant within the yield analysis. Also, contrary to the common literature, the results suggest the validity of Sharpe's conventional CAPM.

Improvement of Premium Banking Services: The Need and the Potential

The need for a transition to an intensive and innovative development path is overdue in the banking system of Russia. The quality parameters of the premium banking service program for top-5 banks were analyzed. Factors of interest to the banks and their clients were identified. Suggestions on possible ways to improve premium banking programs were formulated. For the analysis, the authors selected banks with the most interesting bonus programs. The contextual analysis of the qualitative parameters of the premium banking programs allowed identifying these programs’ important components and possible problems. These are: the digitalization of banking services, which actively penetrates the segment of the wealthy client; lower business margins; search for the real value of a premium service for the customer. In the authors’ opinion, the most urgent problem is the combination of trends in the digitalization of the banking services and the needs of individualization of the approach to servicing a premium client. The main directions for improving premium banking programs were formulated. They are associated with improving the skills of the program staff; searching for new additional offers and organizing operational feedback for this; expanding the line of financial products offered to premium customers, for example, investment and insurance products, legal services. Premium banking provides a premium client with a special status in terms of service individualization, involves working with target segments, and offers bonus programs of banking products and services aimed at specific target audiences. Therefore, premium banking encourages the bank to identify and differentiate different target groups (audiences) by income level, investment goals, etc.; to conduct events (training seminars, conferences, presentations) to attract individuals to the financial market. Premium banking provides a balance between the economic interests of the company, the financial market and the banking system, commercial banks and individuals. Therefore, the task of developing this segment of the banking services market becomes relevant, meeting the modern needs of the economy. Primarily, the introduction and improvement of premium banking are beneficial to commercial banks themselves, as it increases their level of competitiveness, contributes to the formation of customer loyalty, thus allowing for a more complete satisfaction of customer needs in special services. Currently, improvements in premium banking could also contribute to raising the financial awareness of private clients concerning investment opportunities in the financial markets that would provide effective and balanced development of the financial market of Russia.

How is Liquidity Priced in Global Markets?

We develop a new global asset pricing model to study how illiquidity interacts with market segmentation and investability constraints in 42 markets. Noninvestable stocks that can only be held by foreign investors earn higher expected returns compared to freely investable stocks due to limited risk sharing and higher illiquidity. In addition to the world market premium, on average, developed and emerging market noninvestables earn an annual unspanned local market risk premium of $1.17\%$ and $9.04\%$, and a liquidity level premium of $1.06\%$ and $2.39\%$, respectively. These results obtained in a conditional setup are robust to the choice of liquidity measure.

Self-Reinforcing Electricity Price Dynamics under the Variable Market Premium Scheme

We report a potential self-reinforcing design flaw in the variable market premium scheme that occurs if variable renewable energy power plants receiving a premium become price-setting in the market. A high share of renewable energy is a goal of many countries on their transformation path to a sustainable future. Accordingly, policies like feed-in tariffs have been in place for many years in many countries to support investment. To foster market alignment, variable market premia have been introduced in at least 12 European countries and a further dozen additional countries world-wide. We demonstrate both with a mathematical model and different scenarios of an agent-based simulation that the combination of variable premia and a high share of hours in which renewables are price-setting may lead to a self-reinforcing downward spiral of prices if unchecked. This is caused by the market premium opening up the bidding space towards negative prices. We discuss possible objections and countermeasures and evaluate the severity of this market design flaw.