scholarly journals Twisting the truth: Foundations of wishful thinking

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 989-1022
Author(s):  
Matthew Kovach
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Exchange Economy ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Wishful Thinking ◽  
Willingness To Accept ◽  
Considerable Evidence ◽  
The Status ◽  
Future Outcomes

Considerable evidence shows that people have optimistic beliefs about future outcomes. I present an axiomatic model of wishful thinking (WT), in which an endowed alternative, or status quo, influences the agent's beliefs over states and thus induces such optimism. I introduce a behavioral axiom formalizing WT and derive a representation in which the agent overweights states in which the endowment provides a higher payoff. WT is a novel channel through which an endowment may influence choice behavior and provides a coherent explanation for a variety of observed behavior, including choice reversals among nonstatus quo alternatives when the status quo changes. WT leads to inefficient risk sharing in an exchange economy and has unique implications for the gap between willingness to accept and willingness to pay for endowed goods.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Status Quo of the Elderly’s Demands of medical and elderly care Combination in the Underdeveloped Regions of Western China and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of Lanzhou

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiancheng Wang ◽  
Yunhua Wang ◽  
Hui Cai ◽  
Juxia Zhang ◽  
Bei Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Elderly Care ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Medical Insurance ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Care Services ◽  
The Status ◽  
Demand Rate

Abstract Background: This study aims to analyze the current demand of senior citizen in Lanzhou, China for the combination of medical and elderly care services and identify the factors influencing their needs. Methods: 7500 participants aged 60 or above living in Lanzhou, China were recruited, a unified questionnaire concerning the elderly's demand of the service combining medical and elderly care has been adopted to conduct a survey on these subjects. The status quo of the demand of the service combining medical and elderly care and its influencing factors were analyzed with the single-factor Chi-square test and multi-factor binomial logistic regression method. Results: 3,772 of 7,320 seniors have the demand of the service combining medical and elderly care, accounting for 53.15%. Different genders, marital status, degree of education, occupation before retirement, number of children, monthly income, health self-assessment status, endowment insurance type, medical insurance type, current way of elderly nursing, old-age demands, self-care ability, and the knowledge of combining medical and elderly care, the willingness to pay for the combination of medical and elderly care have statistical significance (P＜0.05) with the elderly's needs of combination of medical and elderly care in Lanzhou, whereas different ages, living styles, and the prevalence rate of chronic diseases, have no statistical significance (P＞0.05) with the elderly's needs of combination of medical and elderly care in Lanzhou. The number of children, types of medical insurance, and willingness to pay for the combination of medical treatment and nursing are major influencing factors among complex factors influencing the elderly's demand of the service combining medical and elderly care in Lanzhou.Conclusions: The low knowledge rate and demand rate, the number of children, the type of medical insurance, and the willingness to pay the medical-nursing combination service for the elderly in Lanzhou have a great impact on the elderly's demand rate of combining medical and elderly care. Meanwhile, relevant government departments should focus more on the promotion of the endowment model of combining medical and elderly care and provide integrated medical care services by integrating multiple resources, and improving social security.

scholarly journals The status quo’s role in improving the estimation of willingness to pay in choice experiments

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 422
Author(s):  
Alexandru MAXIM ◽  
Teodora ROMAN
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Discrete Choice Experiment ◽  
Discrete Choice ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Dual Model ◽  
The Status

European household consumers have seen a gradual increase in the cost of their electricity bill, partly due to ambitious support policies for the development of renewable energy. Some consumers may have a higher willingness to pay (WTP) for clean energy, which could constitute a competitive advantage for electricity suppliers branding themselves as “sustainable”.A discrete choice experiment has been used in order to estimate the WTP of households for renewable energy. For the last decade, researchers have debated whether to add a “status quo” / “not willing to pay for changes” option in the experimental design, as this may generate complications and not add sufficient benefits.In this paper we use an original approach based on two parallel model estimations applied to the same sample of respondents in order to demonstrate the effect of adding a “status quo” option. Our results show that not including it would have led to an overestimation of about one third of the respondents‟ WTP.While more research on the topic is needed, we demonstrate the risk of simplifying the experimental design and propose a facile method of enhancing the experiment with a dual model design.Keywords: discrete choice experiment, status quo, renewable energy, household consumers, willingness to pay

scholarly journals Efek Pemikatan (Attraction Effect) dan Bias Status Quo Sebuah Eksperimen dalam Perilaku Pengambilan Keputusan Portofolio Keuangan

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-224
Author(s):  
Bayu Laksma Pradana
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Observation ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Attraction Effect ◽  
Individual Choice ◽  
Decoy Effect ◽  
The Status

The reference dependent preference plays a significant role in individual choice behavior. Introducing a third option which is asymmetrical dominated to the dominating option can influence one’s decision. The status quo, endowment and attraction or decoy effect are the main noises. Such noises are  proof to counter the rational choice theory. This paper tries to observe the status quo and decoy effect. Existence of those two effects are examined in experimental observation with 32 respondents. Questionnaires are set for  respondents to dig information about how their answers contain choices. Two and three varies alternatives are presented to see  respondent choice feedback when a third inferior alternative is available. The result shows respondent tendency to switch options when status quo becomes a  reference point.

scholarly journals Analysis of the status quo of the Elderly’s demands of medical and elderly care combination in the underdeveloped regions of Western China and its influencing factors: a case study of Lanzhou

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiancheng Wang ◽  
Yunhua Wang ◽  
Hui Cai ◽  
Juxia Zhang ◽  
Bei Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Elderly Care ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Medical Insurance ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Care Services ◽  
The Status ◽  
Demand Rate

Abstract Background This study aims to analyse the current demand by senior citizens in Lanzhou, China for a combination of medical and elderly care services and to identify the factors influencing their needs. Methods 7500 participants aged 60 or above living in Lanzhou, China, were recruited, a unified questionnaire concerning elderly people’s demand for a service combining medical and elderly care has been adopted to survey these subjects. The status quo of the demand of the service combining medical and elderly care and its influencing factors were analysed with the single-factor Chi-square test and multi-factor binomial logistic regression method. Results 3772 of 7320 older people have the demand for the service combining medical and elderly care, accounting for 53.15% of survey respondents. Many factors are in play, including gender, marital status, degree of education, occupation before retirement, number of children, monthly income, health self-assessment status, endowment insurance type, medical insurance type, current nursing arrangements, old-age demands, self-care ability and the knowledge of combining medical and elderly care and the willingness to pay for the combination of medical and elderly care have statistical significance (P < 0.05) with the elderly’s needs, different ages, living styles and the prevalence of chronic diseases, have no statistical significance (P > 0.05) with the elderly’s care needs in Lanzhou. The number of children, type of medical insurance and willingness to pay for the combination of medical treatment and nursing care are major influencing factors among the complex factors influencing the elderly’s demand for the proposed service. Conclusions The low knowledge rate and demand rate, the number of children, the type of medical insurance, and the willingness to pay for the medical-nursing combination service for the elderly in Lanzhou have a great impact on the elderly’s demand rate for combining medical and elderly care. Meanwhile, relevant government departments should focus more on the promotion of the endowment model of combining medical and elderly care and provide integrated medical care services by integrating multiple resources, and improving social security.

scholarly journals Farmers’ Heterogeneous Willingness to Pay for Farmland Non-Market Goods and Services on the Basis of a Mixed Logit Model—A Case Study of Wuhan, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 3876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Mixed Logit ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Mixed Logit Model ◽  
Ecological Value ◽  
Farmland Protection ◽  
Recreational Value ◽  
The Status

The exploration of different stakeholders’ heterogeneous willingness to pay for farmland ecological value is a fundamental part of understanding the total value of farmland protection and designing a scientific farmland protection policy. Unlike the homogenous assumption used in the previous studies, the mixed logit model of choice experiment method was applied to estimate respondents’ heterogeneous willingness to pay for farmland non-market value (represented by farmland area, farmland fertility, water quality, air quality, species richness, and recreational value) in this study. Data came from a sample of 289 farmers in Wuhan, China who were face-to-face interviewed. Results showed that: (1) Farmers were unsatisfied with the status quo of the present farmland ecological environment and were willing to pay to preserve all the attributes of farmland non-market value. (2) Farmers had a heterogeneous preference for the status quo and recreational value—the error variances of these two attributes were both significant at the 1% level, and their willingness to pay for the farmland non-market value in Wuhan was 1141.88 Yuan/hm2. (3) Farmers’ cognition degree of farmland importance and whether respondents bought medical insurance or not had significant impacts on their willingness to pay. The results can provide the basic foundation for accurate valuation of farmland non-market services, help farmland regulators make the right farmland conversion decisions, and improve the resource allocation efficiency of local financial expenditure during farmland protection in Wuhan.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Status Quo of the Elderly’s Demands of medical and elderly care Combination in the Underdeveloped Regions of Western China and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of Lanzhou

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiancheng Wang ◽  
Yunhua Wang ◽  
Hui Cai ◽  
Juxia Zhang ◽  
Bei Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Elderly Care ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Medical Insurance ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Care Services ◽  
The Status ◽  
Demand Rate

Abstract Background: This study aims to analyse the current demand by senior citizens in Lanzhou, Chin for a combination of medical and elderly care services and to identify the factors influencing their needs.Methods: 7500 participants aged 60 or above living in Lanzhou, China, were recruited, a unified questionnaire concerning elderly people’s demand for a service combining medical and elderly care has been adopted to survey these subjects. The status quo of the demand of the service combining medical and elderly care and its influencing factors were analysed with the single-factor Chi-square test and multi-factor binomial logistic regression method.Results: 3,772 of 7,320 older people have the demand for the service combining medical and elderly care, accounting for 53.15% of survey respondents. Many factors are in play, including gender, marital status, degree of education, occupation before retirement, number of children, monthly income, health self-assessment status, endowment insurance type, medical insurance type, current nursing arrangements, old-age demands, self-care ability and the knowledge of combining medical and elderly care and the willingness to pay for the combination of medical and elderly care have statistical significance (P<0.05) with the elderly’s needs, different ages, living styles and the prevalence of chronic diseases, have no statistical significance (P>0.05) with the elderly’s care needs in Lanzhou. The number of children, type of medical insurance and willingness to pay for a combination of medical treatment and nursing care are major influencing factors among the complex factors influencing the elderly’s demand for the proposed service.Conclusions: The low knowledge rate and demand rate, the number of children, the type of medical insurance, and the willingness to pay for a medical-nursing combination service for the elderly in Lanzhou have a great impact on the elderly’s demand rate for combining medical and elderly care. Meanwhile, relevant government departments should focus more on the promotion of the endowment model of combining medical and elderly care and provide integrated medical care services by integrating multiple resources, and improving social security.

scholarly journals Route Choice Behavior: Understanding the Impact of Asymmetric Preference on Travelers’ Decision Making

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Liu ◽  
Yuan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Route Choice ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Willingness To Accept ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Behavior Understanding ◽  
Route Choice Behavior ◽  
Route Choices ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigated the impact of asymmetric preference on travelers’ route choices. Firstly, a status quo-dependent route choice mode was developed to describe travelers’ route choices. Then, based on that model, a route choice experiment was conducted, and during the experiment, participants were requested to choose a route from two arbitrary non-dominated routes. Finally, according to the observation data, data analysis and model parameter estimation were conducted. The results show that participants used different measures to trade off travel cost and travel time. Additionally, there was a gap between most participants’ willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept (WTA). Moreover, participants’ WTP greater than their own WTA was the key reason resulting in the inertial route choices. The empirical results in this paper can help the traffic manager to understand travelers’ inertial route choice behavior from a different perspective.

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